Scientific Journal of KubSAU

Polythematic online scientific journal
of Kuban State Agrarian University
ISSN 1990-4665
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Name

Popova Elena Vitalevna

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Academic rank

professor

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Kuban State Agrarian University
   

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Articles count: 17

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2071 kb

ANALYSIS OF BASIC HISTORICAL AND MODERN DEFINITIONS OF "RISK" CONCEPT

abstract 0721108020 issue 72 pp. 228 – 241 30.10.2011 ru 1497
In this work, the comparative analysis of basic histori-cal and modern variations of definition of risks is pre-sented in general and from the point of enterprise ac-tivity. The gradual expansion of borders of concept of "risk" and its integral components in their direct inter-relation is investigated and eventually proved. Its modern concept is defined
197 kb

ANALYTICAL TOOLS OF VECTOR RISK ASSESSMENT OF THE FINANCIAL MARKET

abstract 1221608035 issue 122 pp. 481 – 495 31.10.2016 ru 399
In rapidly changing conditions of the modern world, analysts and decision makers are in need to use new formal means of analysis and evaluation of alternatives problems. This work is dedicated to the development of such tools. The article presents a detailed analysis and technical and economic characteristics of the subject area - the financial market and its specific components - the value of a time series of gold, silver, palladium, platinum, and two kinds of exchange rates: EUR / RUB, USD / RUB. The authors have proposed a 5-criteria economic-mathematical model of the main components of the ranking of the financial market. The authors argue the impossibility of using a single integrated set of criteria for the replacement of the criteria or the use of criteria convolution procedures as the standard procedure of solving the problem of multi-criteria optimization. It demonstrates that such criteria as criteria for "risk" must be considered as an estimate of the degree of deviation from the expected value of the possible values of this criterion. The practical significance of the results is determined by the fact that the main points, conclusions, recommendations, models and methods can be used in order to improve the management and planning of development strategies of banking systems, trading platforms, as well as by developers of information and analytical systems to support management decisionmaking
137 kb

FORMATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE INDUSTRY OF SALE AND DELIVERY OF WATER IN RUSSIA

abstract 0891305063 issue 89 pp. 934 – 946 29.05.2013 ru 1445
The article contains the study of peculiarities of formation and development of HOD market, the issues of interaction of its participants, the analysis of approaches to the management of the activity of enterprises of small and average business in the market of HOD
279 kb

METHODS OF CLASSICAL STATISTICS IN STUDYING THE DEGREE OF "RISKINESS" OF TREND-SEASONAL PROCESSES

abstract 1001406114 issue 100 pp. 1734 – 1744 30.06.2014 ru 1333
The article studies the degree of "riskiness" of natural time series, which are inherent properties of the seasonal trend. The authors have made an analysis the result of which is the effect relationship between weather conditions and the dynamics of the behavior of the monthly volumes of mountain rivers
150 kb

METHODS OF MULTICRITERIA RANKING MODELING IN SOCIO-ECONOMIC RISKS

abstract 1131509002 issue 113 pp. 33 – 42 30.11.2015 ru 780
The aim of public health monitoring is to study the influence of environmental factors on health, identifying causal relationships, forecast the situation and the adoption of adequate solutions for management of the situation. One of the tasks of forecasting is the evaluation of risk, as well as indicators’ of a disease growth. The authors calculated the risk of spreading disease in the territory due to environmental factors (EF). Thus, it will be possible to make adequate solutions to detect and eliminate harmful EF. Consequently, decision-making for managing human habitations needs paying attention to the highest risk of the emergence and spreading of diseases, standing at the beginning of the ranked series, in order to identify causal relationships of environment and public health of the population. Mathematical model of evaluation index system such as "degree of concern" of the disease of population makes it possible to identify the most "risky" classes of diseases for different groups of the population, followed by determination of causal relationships due to the influence of environmental factors
161 kb

MULTI-CRITERIA ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVES IN SOLVING HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT PROBLEMS

abstract 1531909003 issue 153 pp. 19 – 32 29.11.2019 ru 207
Human resources have recently reasonably gained more and more importance. Today, along with material, intellectual, informational and financial resources, they affect the efficiency of enterprises and organizations. Competent assessment of human resources, a clear understanding of means of interaction with staff and developing human potential are the basis for the effective work of both human resources departments and organizations as a whole. The complexity of assessing human resources necessitates the development of a toolkit, the use of which will simplify it and ensure that one receives the most accurate advice and assistance in making management decisions. A promising direction for the implementation of the designated toolkit may be the development of a decision support system, within which, among other things, the possibility of a multi-criteria analysis of alternatives will be available. Due to the fact that there are no methods for multi-criteria analysis of alternatives intended solely for assessing human resources, it is necessary to conduct a thorough analysis, the main purpose of which is to identify the most suitable basis for further adaptation and development. After conducting preliminary studies, the TOPSIS, MAUT, AHP and ELECTRE methods were chosen as the most promising for solving the problem
210 kb

PHASE ANALYSIS AS A TOOL OF PREESTIMATED ANALYSIS OF THE ACTIVITY OF A MULTIFUNCTIONAL CENTER

abstract 1071503033 issue 107 pp. 473 – 483 31.03.2015 ru 1055
The article is devoted to the phase analysis as a tool preprocessor analysis of a multi-purpose center. Consider the time series of the daily number of requests received on the basis of the phase portraits of these time series. These time series have strong properties of cycles and periodicity. Practice has shown that in modern conditions, for example, for the Russian economy with its instability and financial crises, classical economic theory and statistics, built on linear models, turned out to be unproductive. Overview of approaches and economic-mathematical methods preprocessor analysis of evolutionary economic processes and the corresponding time series allows concluding the following: one versatile, satisfying all the requirements, do not possess the shortcomings of the method of analysis and forecasting does not exist. Each approach and each method has its advantages, disadvantages, limits of use. Most of the known methods of forecasting operate detected in the considered time series properties of cycles and periodicity. Thus, the mere presence of a pronounced cyclicity at different levels of the considered hierarchical model of the time series of the number of requests in a multi-purpose center are important indicators of the possibility of constructing an adequate predictive model number of requests in the multi-purpose centre
535 kb

PRE-FORECASTING PHASE ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTIONARY DEVELOPMENT OF THE ELEMENTS OF THE FINANCIAL MARKET

abstract 1281704054 issue 128 pp. 771 – 784 28.04.2017 ru 383
Development of monitoring of the behavior of financial market, simulation, analysis, visualization, prediction in modern conditions is connected with a consistent increase in their level of formalization. The basis for this process is the requirements of significantly changed (in the direction of increasing) stochastics, turbulence, volatility, financial and economic processes. Particular relevance in the analysis of behavior of economic time series elements of the financial market is now becoming more systematic development of diverse, interdependent and mutually complementary economic and mathematical models. The models are linked, they are operating on the same source material, and their selection has improved the representativeness of the algorithms of modern economic processes of the financial market, which is important for transformational (transitional) market economies. In the article it is shown that the proposed usage of instrumentation and mathematical methods represent essentially new base for forecasting of discrete evolutionary processes
686 kb

PREDICTION OF A FINANCIAL MARKET EVOLUTION ON THE BASE OF SOFTWARE TOOLS FOR LINEAR CELLULAR AUTOMAT

abstract 1211607027 issue 121 pp. 568 – 580 30.09.2016 ru 611
The work used methods of system analysis, monographic, structural and logical, economic-statistical, mathematical continuous and discrete, settlement and constructive methods as well as software tools of linear cellular automata. Usage of each method was based on their functionality, thus ensuring the accuracy of the findings and scientific positions. In this article we attempt to predict the dynamic behavior of the financial market elements, to use on the basis of a linear cellular automaton computer tools and methods of nonlinear science for adequate numerical reflection measure various risks, primarily financial and economic risks, as well as to show the power of computer graphics, computer mathematics system linear cellular automata, to emphasize an important philosophical role of visualization. The authors of the work programmed linear cellular automaton based on Python 2.7 software platform in the form of application. The program validates the predictive model on the adequacy of the selected coloring, is forecast error and builds polygons predictive model and input data on the same graph. The proposed research area is relevant to the processes in the financial and economic system, bringing in useful innovative elements in the generalized forecast that do not exist in continuous classical methodology
447 kb

STABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT OF AGRARIAN SECTOR: COMPLEX OF MATHEMATICAL METHODS AND MODELS

abstract 0901306065 issue 90 pp. 954 – 969 30.06.2013 ru 1501
Tools and mathematical methods offered for usage represent essentially new base for forecasting of discrete evolutionary processes. Authors represent complete system of models and methods of temporary ranks’ with memory forecasting
.