Scientific Journal of KubSAU

The article presents an algorithm for constructing an expert system for quantitative bankruptcy risk estimation of small agricultural enterprises. Fuzzy logic analysis methodology in the form of fuzzy inference system was put as a basis for this development, classically including five steps: fuzzy rules base forming, fuzzification, aggregation, intensification, defuzzification. All the calculations were performed using MATLAB 2012 software package including Fuzzy module. Demand and costs of production were proposed as main factors influencing bankruptcy risk. Quantitative estimations of input parameters were determined by 100-point scale on the basis of expert estimations, and after that variables were fuzzificated in the form of trapezoid numbers as most common in fuzzy logic analysis (after triangular). Besides quantitative estimation of bankruptcy risk a surface of fuzzy inference was constructed, allowing to determine dependence between output variable’s values and input variables’ values of original bankruptcy risk model, as well as necessary values of input variables values to reach acceptable level by experts

The article presents the methods of specialists’ distribution for a consulting company between its projects in accordance with the methodology of dynamic programming for expected profit maximization. For its implementation, a mathematical model is being formed with nonlinear objective function and linear restrictions. The non-linearity of the objective function is due to the specifics of consulting companies and their size. The model includes probability parameters determined by expert evaluations method based on previous experience of the company in the analogical works and describing successful implementation of each project in its portfolio. Then the parameter and function of the state, satisfying recurrence are considered and linear replacement is performed to reserve a minimum number of experts on each job. The article gives a hypothetical example of a consulting company, including in its portfolio five projects with the mentioned profits in case of their success. On its basis, the developed method is implemented as a 5-step procedure of modeling of unknown parameters. Economic impact of the methods’ application is estimated . The developed model and method can be used by specialists in consulting companies, as well as in service industries

The mathematical model of the basic production assets which one can be used by a small enterprises at the justification of planned solutions of productive activity is tendered and verified

The article proposes the method of determining the norm of reinvestment of net income in the fixed assets of a small business, which yields the highest value of the sum of its savings fund