#### Name

Orlov Alexander Ivanovich

#### Scholastic degree

•

•

•

#### Academic rank

professor

#### Honorary rank

â€”

#### Organization, job position

Bauman Moscow State Technical University

#### Web site url

â€”

## Articles count: 123

In many areas - the economy, quality management,
medicine, the ecology, in safety of flights and
others - the problems of analysis, estimation and
management of risks have much in common.
Therefore, we consider it necessary to develop a
general theory of risk. Approaches and methods of
this theory will allow in the future solving problems
of uniform risk management in specific subject
areas. Based on the analysis of scientific
publications and industry regulations it must be
noted that private risk theories tend to become
isolated within themselves, create their own internal
standards and systems of regulations. Separately -
for banking, separately - for safety, separately - for
industrial accidents, etc. In order to construct a
general theory of risk we analyze use of the term
"risk" in various fields, consider the variety of
types of risks, give the basic definitions in the field
of analysis, estimation and management of risk. We
discuss planetary risks (at Earth as a whole), global
risks (at the level of one or more States), financial
risks, commercial risks (risks at the level of the
immediate environment of the company), and
production (internal, operational) risks relating to
the activities of individual enterprises
(organizations), personal risks. Instruments of total
risk theory allow us equally solve the basic
problems of analysis, estimation and management
of risk for all areas

It was established that the two-sample Wilcoxon test (Mann-Whitney test) was designed to test the hypothesis H0: P(X

On the basis of the objective analysis it must be
noted that in the arsenal of managers, especially
foreign ones, there is practically no fundamentally
new methods and tools of controlling. So says the
executive director of Russian Association of
Controllers prof. S. G. Falco. However, promising
mathematical and instrumental methods of
controlling actively developed in our country. It is
necessary to implement them. For example,
managers should be used techniques which
discussed in the book by Orlov AI, Lutsenko EV,
Loikaw VI "Advanced mathematical and
instrumental methods of controlling" (2015). These
methods are based on the modern development of
mathematics as a whole - on the system interval
fuzzy math (see the same named book by Orlov AI
and Lutsenko EV, 2014). Considered methods are
developed in accordance with the new paradigm of
mathematical methods of research. It includes new
paradigms of applied statistics, mathematical
statistics, mathematical methods of economics,
methods of analysis of statistical and expert data in
management and control. In the XXI century there
were more than 10 books issued, developed in
accordance with the new paradigm of mathematical
methods of research. The systems approach to
solving specific applications often requires going
beyond the economy. Very important are the
procedures for the introduction of innovative
methods and tools. In this article we consider the
above research results in their interconnection

Lusian - dichotomous data model as a finite sequence of independent Bernoulli trials with, generally speaking, different probabilities of success. The tasks of statistical hypothesis testing, classification, averaging lusians are discussed. In accordance with the requirements of practice the problems are considered primarily in the asymptotic behavior of increasing dimension, in which the number of unknown parameters increases in proportion to the size of data. The method of testing hypotheses on set of small samples and the theory of unbiased statistical estimates were proved to be useful

Is given the analysis of the development of expert estimates in our country after the war. Are presented a diversity of expert technologies, the main ideas and publications that help identify the driving forces of development in this promising scientific and practical field

We have considered the basic mathematical tools (theorems, methods) which are used regularly in the justification of new results in the field of statistical methods: rules of large numbers, central limit theorems, the necessary and sufficient conditions for the inheritance of convergence, the linearization method, the invariance principle

The basic ideas of non-formal informational economy of the future (NIEF) are analyzed. Its use as the base organizational-economic theory in exchange Â«economicsÂ» is proved. Core of researches in the field of the NIEF is forecasting of development of the future society and its economy, working out of organizational-economic methods and models, necessary for the future and intended for increase of efficiency of managerial processes. The economy is a science how to make, instead of, how to divide profit. The basic kernel of the modern economic theory is an engineering economy

Statistical methods are based on the developed theory and demonstrated its usefulness in the sectors of the economy. However, the analysis of the situation in the application of statistical methods shows obvious distress, in which accumulated in our country's scientific potential is not used to the full. As practice shows, it is not enough to develop promising modern theory-based effective mathematical and instrumental methods of controlling. For using such methods in mass, it is necessary that they would be implemented. Management of innovations, i.e. innovation management, quite rightly is currently one of the most debated sections of the economy and the organization of production, of the entire economic science in general. However, the implementation of applied statistics and other statistical methods, more generally, mathematical and instrumental methods of controlling, has its own specifics. It is considered in the article. We have highlighted the developmental vulnerabilities - low scientific level of many individuals applying statistical methods, the lack of organizational structure of applied statistics as a field of applied activities and others. We regret to note that the very idea of the need to establish requirements for the methods of data analysis and project formulations such requirements remained outside the attention of those professionals who need them and were addressed. We have no adequate system of guidance for documents on concrete statistical methods performed on modern scientific level. According to the author, the desired future of applied statistics is reorganization according to the model of Metrology. We have analyzed the application of statistical methods as a specialty. The analysis of state standards on statistical methods and the causes of them blunders are given. We have discussed the status of documents for statistical methods for standardization and quality control.
We discuss a new system of "Six Sigma" for implementation advanced mathematical and instrumental methods of controlling

In various applications, it is necessary to analyze
several expert orderings, i.e. clustered rankings
objects of examination. These areas include
technical studies, ecology, management, economics,
sociology, forecasting, etc. The objects can be some
samples of products, technologies, mathematical
models, projects, job applicants and others. In the
construction of the final opinion of the commission
of experts, it is important to find clustered ranking
that averages responses of experts. This article
describes a number of methods for clustered
rankings averaging, among which there is the
method of Kemeny median calculation, based on the
use of Kemeny distance. This article focuses on the
computing side of the final ranking among the
expert opinions problem by means of median
Kemeny calculation. There are currently no exact
algorithms for finding the set of all Kemeny
medians for a given number of permutations
(rankings without connections), only exhaustive
search. However, there are various approaches to
search for a part or all medians, which are analyzed
in this study. Zhikharev's heuristic algorithms serve
as a good tool to study the set of all Kemeny
medians: identifying any connections in mutual
locations of the medians in relation to the
aggregated expert opinions set (a variety of expert
answers permutations). Litvak offers one precise
and one heuristic approaches to calculate the median
among all possible sets of solutions. This article
introduces the necessary concepts, analyzes the
advantages of median Kemeny among other possible searches of expert orderings. It identifies
the comparative strengths and weaknesses of
examined computational ways

The relationship of Mathematical Statistics (wider -
Mathematical methods of research) and history is
multifaceted. In our opinion, the history of
mathematical statistics is an integral part of this
mathematical discipline. We have given a review of
our works on the history of statistical methods. The
role of mathematical statistics for the history is very
important. In this article, we restrict ourselves to the
questions of chronology. For centuries, the
chronology is considered as a part of applied
mathematics. The main problem is that the whole
"common" concept of the Russian and the World
history as a whole presented in textbooks was faked
by the opponents of Russia after the collapse of the
global Empire (Russian kingdom) in the early 17th
century - 400 years ago. The stories about historical
events are the information weapon. It was used by
the new rulers to suppress the resistance of the
vanquished. A new mathematical and statistical
chronology of general and Russian history, which
was built by a scientific team led by Academician
Fomenko, has been helpful for the discussion about
the current economic and political problems of
relations between Russia and the West in the XXI
century. In our opinion, the new chronology of the
World and Russian history should be one of the
foundations of state-patriotic ideology and deriving
practical solutions. The purpose of this article is to
give the initial idea of the new chronology from this
point of view