#### Name

Orlov Alexander Ivanovich

#### Scholastic degree

•

•

•

#### Academic rank

professor

#### Honorary rank

â€”

#### Organization, job position

Bauman Moscow State Technical University

#### Web site url

â€”

## Articles count: 123

Intuitively everyone understands that noise is a signal
in which there no information is, or which in practice
fails to reveal the information. More precisely, it is
clear that a certain sequence of elements (the number)
the more is the noise, the less information is contained
in the values of some elements on the values of others.
It is even stranger, that noone has suggested the way,
but even the idea of measuring the amount of information
in some fragments of signal of other fragments
and its use as a criterion for assessing the degree of
closeness of the signal to the noise. The authors propose
the asymptotic information criterion of the quality
of noise, and the method, technology and methodology
of its application in practice. As a method of application
of the asymptotic information criterion of noise
quality, we offer, in practice, the automated systemcognitive
analysis (ASC-analysis), and as a technology
and software tools of ASC-analysis we offer the universal
cognitive analytical system called "Eidos". As a
method, we propose a technique of creating applications
in the system, as well as their use for solving
problems of identification, prediction, decision making
and research the subject area by examining its model.
We present an illustrative numerical example showing
the ideas presented and demonstrating the efficiency of
the proposed asymptotic information criterion of the
quality of the noise, and the method, technology and
methodology of its application in practice

According to measurement theory, statistical data
are measured in various scales. The most widely
used ordinal scale, scales of intervals and relations.
Statistical methods of data analysis should
correspond to the scales in which the data is
measured. The term "correspondence" is specified
with the help of the concepts of an adequate
function and an allowable scale transformation. The
main content of the article is a description of the
average values that can be used to analyze data
measured in the ordinal scale, interval and
relationship scales, and some others. The main
attention is paid to the means for Cauchy and the
means for Kolmogorov. In addition to the mean,
from this point of view, polynomials and correlation
indices are also analyzed. Detailed mathematical
proofs of characterization theorems are given for the
first time in scientific periodicals. It is shown that in
the ordinal scale there are exactly n average values,
that can be used, namely, n order statistics. The
proof is represented as a chain of 9 lemmas. In the
scale of intervals from all Kolmogorov means, only
the arithmetic mean can be used. In the scale of
relations from all the Kolmogorov means, only the
power means and the geometric mean are
permissible. The kind of adequate polynomials in
the relationship scale is indicated

System paradigm is discussed conformably to
functioning of controlling institution of a large-scale
agro-industrial system. Presently the systemacity
became the general platform of fundamental and
applied, scientific and practical elaborations and
projects. Now in the sphere of system researches
surge of interest in questions of classification is
observed. Apparently, it is connected with
accumulation of results of private researches in all
areas of this discipline and with inevitable
transdisciplinary crossings of their practical
applications. So, undoubted intervention of high
technologies to the agrarian sphere is observed. The
efficiency of this introduction, certainly, depends on
coordination of actions of developers of various
subject domains. On the basis of the objective
analysis it must be noted that in the arsenal of
managers, especially foreign ones, there is
practically no fundamentally new methods and tools
of controlling. So says the executive director of
Russian Association of Controllers prof. S. G. Falco.
However, promising mathematical and instrumental
methods of controlling actively developed in our
country. It is necessary to implement them. For
example, managers should be used advanced
mathematical and instrumental methods of
controlling. These methods are based on the modern
development of mathematics as a whole - on the
system interval fuzzy math. Considered methods are
developed in accordance with the new paradigm of
mathematical methods of research. It includes new
paradigms of applied statistics, mathematical
statistics, mathematical methods of economics,
methods of analysis of statistical and expert data in management and control. In the XXI century there
were more than 10 books issued, developed in
accordance with the new paradigm of mathematical
methods of research. The systems approach to
solving specific applications often requires going
beyond the economy. Very important are the
procedures for the introduction of innovative
methods and tools. In this article we consider the
above research results in their interconnection

In modern conditions of quantitative and qualitative
degradation of science in general and economics in
particular, especially in our country, the scientific
direction of "Controlling" stands out not only for its
activity, but also the rapid intensive and extensive
growth. This work is the summary of the main
publications of scientific results on controlling
obtained at the Laboratory of economicmathematical
methods in controlling of Scientific
and Educational Center "Controlling and
management innovations" of Bauman Moscow State
Technical University. We discuss the concept of
"method", "tool", "mechanism", "algorithm" in
relation to the Controlling. Adequate use of these
terms is necessary for the formulation of sound
scientific results, and to provide their perception of
the scientific community. Innovations in the field of
management in industry and other sectors of the
economy based, in particular, on the use of new
adequate organizational and economic methods.
Controlling in this area - it is the development of
relevant management procedures used and the newly
established (implanted) organizational and economic
methods to the task. Development, systematization
and application of modern mathematical tools of
controlling are the main theme of our work. We
have considered the problems of controlling new
areas - controlling risks, quality controlling,
controlling organizational and economic support for
control tasks in the aerospace industry, controlling
research activities. We have also obtained new
scientific results in controlling personnel and
ecological safety controlling

The problem of controlling a large-scale agroindustrial
system, which should be solved in the
process of organizing agricultural production, is
considered. It is shown, that the scientific and
methodological apparatus of the service subsystem
controlling such an object should be expanded in
comparison with ordinary enterprises of agroindustrial
production. The article considers a new
approach to the theory of management of large-scale
socio-economic systems, based on a solidary
information economy. Its main ideas are analyzed,
its use as a basic organizational and economic
theory instead of "economics" is justified.
According to the solidary information economy,
modern information technologies and decisionmaking
theory make it possible to build information
and communication system based on an "open
network society" designed to identify people's needs
and organize production in order to meet them.
Predecessors - V.M. Glushkov, Anthony Stafford
Beer, W. P. Cockshott, A. F. Cottrell and others.
The main content of the research is the forecasting
of the development of the future society and its
economy, the development of organizational and
economic methods and models designed to enhance
the effectiveness of management processes. As an
economic component of the state ideology of
Russia, we propose to use a solidary information
economy. The organizational and economic theory
of Russia's innovative development should be based
on a solidary information economy

The article is devoted to discussion of modern views
on management decisions. We have released several
bulk textbooks on the theory of decision-making.
This article discusses several key aspects of this
theory: a comparison of approaches to decisionmaking,
the pitfalls of voting, and the methodology
of decision-making, management responsibility. We
have considered a simple example of a problem of
decision-making in the management of the
organization: selection a model of a new car to run
into a series. Criteria for making a decision, which
put forward by the four experts-theorists,
contradicted each other. The Board of Directors
decided to issue a vote. We have considered the
"reefs" of voting. In the production and realization
of administrative decisions we distinguish four
levels. The first and most important level, which
determine the success or failure of administrative
activity is methodological. We discuss the levels of
production and realization of administrative
decisions. We give some examples where
methodological errors lead to wrong management
decisions. For example, a call to "maximum profit at
the lowest cost" is quite common in the speeches
and orders of a general nature. However, it is
mistaken. Practice of development, adoption and
implementation of solutions is based on a few basic
concepts: Who makes the decisions? The procedure
for preparation of the solution (the regulations).
Objectives. Resources. The risks and uncertainties.
Criteria for estimating decisions. The manager has
his responsibility for the decisions taken. Volition of
manager - the basis of management

In this article we substantiate the necessity of the
development of controlling of organizational and
economic methods, including forecasting tools, the
development and management of decision-making,
and others. Controlling service is central to the
development and implementation of organizational
and economic methods to achieve the goals set by
management. However, quite often the controlling
service has a different name, justified by the history
of the organization. To resolve this paradox, we
begin with a discussion of the content of the terms
"controlling" and especially "Controlling
organizational and economic methods". We discuss
the role of "controlling service" in the management
of organizations and enterprises, as well as territorial
and municipal entities. As an example of the
controlling instrument of organizational and
economic methods is considered an automated
system of forecasting and prevention of aviation
accidents, the use in this system the expert
technologies and quantitative risk estimation
methods. We consider this system as a controlling
tool in the management of safety, while customers
and performers do not use the term "controlling" in
the official documentation of this project. In
accordance with the Presidential Decree of 21
August 2012 â„– 1199 one of the 11 integrated
indicators of the executive power is the indicator
"estimate the population of the executive
authorities." Its use in controlling in the field of
strategic management of regional and municipal
entities was proposed to carry out on the basis of
solidary information economy (the former name -
the informal information economy of the future),
developed by us from 2007. We give the basic ideas
of solidary information economy. However, the
term "controlling" is not always used in relation to
this subject. The same applies to researches related
to organizational and economic modeling of
innovation and development of innovative systems

The term "methodology" is understood differently. Methodology - the doctrine of the organization. Methodology (from the "method" and "logy") - the doctrine of structure, logical organization, methods and means of action. Methodology - the system of principles and methods of organization and construction of theoretical and practical activities, as well as teaching on this system. From these definitions it follows that the methodology - is an intellectual base rod defining approach to specific activities to management decisions. The methodology, which adheres to the manager, lies at the heart of its activities, determines its success or failure, manifested in the consequences of decisions. We give some examples of methodological errors which lead to wrong management decisions. So, the person who seriously requires providing "maximum profit at minimum cost" should be classified into one of two classes, which can be briefly described as "fools" and "liars". Profit must not be the sole purpose of business. The following section will discuss the methodology in place of conducting various scientific economic and technical studies. A natural continuation of the topic - the wording of some of the methodological problems using mathematical methods

In accordance with the Presidential Decree of 21
August 2012 â„– 1199 one of the 11 integrated
indicators of the activity of executive authorities is
the measure "real disposable income of the
population". For its calculation it is necessary to
measure the level of consumer prices. The article
presents the minimum consumer basket of
physiologically essential food products, designed in
1993 by the Institute of High Statistical
Technologies and Econometrics (IHSTE) based on
the initial data of the Institute of Nutrition of the
Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, and the
results of measuring the cost of the consumer basket
IHSTE and inflation index in 24 years (1993 -
2017). We discuss the application of the developed
tools in Controlling of the level of consumer prices
and living wage. According to M. Orshansky, living
wage can be estimated by multiplying the cost of the
minimum food basket by a factor which is equal to
the quotient of all costs to the costs of food costs for
a poor family. This work is aimed at the elimination
of the monopoly of Rosstat in the calculation of
indices of inflation, the living wage and the real
disposable income of the population. The methods
of the measurement and the use of inflation
constitute an important part of training courses in
econometrics, which are taught in the context of the
scientific-educational complex "Engineering
Business and Management" of the Baumann
Moscow State Technical University. Nobel Laureate
in Economics Vasiliy Leontiev thought that only 1%
of economists analyze the newly collected data, 30%
use the data contained in the publications of
predecessors, and the rest did not turn in their
arguments to the real world. This work belongs to
the 1% of publications (which analyzes the newly
collected data), about which Vasiliy Leontiev wrote

Applied Statistics - the science of how to analyze
the statistical data. As an independent scientificpractical
area it develops very quickly. It includes
numerous widely and deeply developed scientific
directions. Those who use the applied statistics and
other statistical methods, usually focused on specific
areas of study, ie, are not specialists in applied
statistics. Therefore, it is useful to make a critical
analysis of the current state of applied statistics and
discuss trends in the development of statistical
methods. Most of the practical importance of
applied statistics justifies the usefulness of the work
on the development of its methodology, in which the
field of scientific and applied activities would be
considered as a whole. We have given some brief
information about the history of applied statistics.
Based on Scientometrics of Applied Statistics we
state that each expert has only a small part of
accumulated knowledge in this area. We discuss five
topical areas in which modern applied statistics
develops, ie five "points of growth": nonparametric,
robustness, bootstrap, statistics of interval data, and
statistics of non-numerical data. We discuss some
details of the basic ideas of a non-numerical
statistics. In the last more than 60 years in Russia,
there has been a huge gap between official statistics
and the scientific community of experts on statistical
methods