Scientific Journal of KubSAU

Polythematic online scientific journal
of Kuban State Agrarian University
ISSN 1990-4665
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Name

Orlov Alexander Ivanovich

Scholastic degree




Academic rank

professor

Honorary rank

Organization, job position

Bauman Moscow State Technical University
   

Web site url

Email

prof-orlov@mail.ru


Articles count: 123

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THE ASYMPTOTIC INFORMATION CRITERION OF NOISE QUALITY

abstract 1161602100 issue 116 pp. 1564 – 1613 29.02.2016 ru 0
Intuitively everyone understands that noise is a signal in which there no information is, or which in practice fails to reveal the information. More precisely, it is clear that a certain sequence of elements (the number) the more is the noise, the less information is contained in the values of some elements on the values of others. It is even stranger, that noone has suggested the way, but even the idea of measuring the amount of information in some fragments of signal of other fragments and its use as a criterion for assessing the degree of closeness of the signal to the noise. The authors propose the asymptotic information criterion of the quality of noise, and the method, technology and methodology of its application in practice. As a method of application of the asymptotic information criterion of noise quality, we offer, in practice, the automated systemcognitive analysis (ASC-analysis), and as a technology and software tools of ASC-analysis we offer the universal cognitive analytical system called "Eidos". As a method, we propose a technique of creating applications in the system, as well as their use for solving problems of identification, prediction, decision making and research the subject area by examining its model. We present an illustrative numerical example showing the ideas presented and demonstrating the efficiency of the proposed asymptotic information criterion of the quality of the noise, and the method, technology and methodology of its application in practice
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CHARACTERIZATION OF AVERAGE VALUES BY MEANS OF MEASUREMENT SCALES

abstract 1341710070 issue 134 pp. 853 – 883 29.12.2017 ru 45
According to measurement theory, statistical data are measured in various scales. The most widely used ordinal scale, scales of intervals and relations. Statistical methods of data analysis should correspond to the scales in which the data is measured. The term "correspondence" is specified with the help of the concepts of an adequate function and an allowable scale transformation. The main content of the article is a description of the average values that can be used to analyze data measured in the ordinal scale, interval and relationship scales, and some others. The main attention is paid to the means for Cauchy and the means for Kolmogorov. In addition to the mean, from this point of view, polynomials and correlation indices are also analyzed. Detailed mathematical proofs of characterization theorems are given for the first time in scientific periodicals. It is shown that in the ordinal scale there are exactly n average values, that can be used, namely, n order statistics. The proof is represented as a chain of 9 lemmas. In the scale of intervals from all Kolmogorov means, only the arithmetic mean can be used. In the scale of relations from all the Kolmogorov means, only the power means and the geometric mean are permissible. The kind of adequate polynomials in the relationship scale is indicated
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SYSTEM PARADIGM AS THE BASIS OF CREATION OF AGRO-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX CONTROLLING SERVICE

abstract 1321708043 issue 132 pp. 518 – 548 31.10.2017 ru 59
System paradigm is discussed conformably to functioning of controlling institution of a large-scale agro-industrial system. Presently the systemacity became the general platform of fundamental and applied, scientific and practical elaborations and projects. Now in the sphere of system researches surge of interest in questions of classification is observed. Apparently, it is connected with accumulation of results of private researches in all areas of this discipline and with inevitable transdisciplinary crossings of their practical applications. So, undoubted intervention of high technologies to the agrarian sphere is observed. The efficiency of this introduction, certainly, depends on coordination of actions of developers of various subject domains. On the basis of the objective analysis it must be noted that in the arsenal of managers, especially foreign ones, there is practically no fundamentally new methods and tools of controlling. So says the executive director of Russian Association of Controllers prof. S. G. Falco. However, promising mathematical and instrumental methods of controlling actively developed in our country. It is necessary to implement them. For example, managers should be used advanced mathematical and instrumental methods of controlling. These methods are based on the modern development of mathematics as a whole - on the system interval fuzzy math. Considered methods are developed in accordance with the new paradigm of mathematical methods of research. It includes new paradigms of applied statistics, mathematical statistics, mathematical methods of economics, methods of analysis of statistical and expert data in management and control. In the XXI century there were more than 10 books issued, developed in accordance with the new paradigm of mathematical methods of research. The systems approach to solving specific applications often requires going beyond the economy. Very important are the procedures for the introduction of innovative methods and tools. In this article we consider the above research results in their interconnection
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THE DIVERSITY OF CONTROLLING DOMAINS AND INSTRUMENTS

abstract 1231609046 issue 123 pp. 688 – 707 30.11.2016 ru 63
In modern conditions of quantitative and qualitative degradation of science in general and economics in particular, especially in our country, the scientific direction of "Controlling" stands out not only for its activity, but also the rapid intensive and extensive growth. This work is the summary of the main publications of scientific results on controlling obtained at the Laboratory of economicmathematical methods in controlling of Scientific and Educational Center "Controlling and management innovations" of Bauman Moscow State Technical University. We discuss the concept of "method", "tool", "mechanism", "algorithm" in relation to the Controlling. Adequate use of these terms is necessary for the formulation of sound scientific results, and to provide their perception of the scientific community. Innovations in the field of management in industry and other sectors of the economy based, in particular, on the use of new adequate organizational and economic methods. Controlling in this area - it is the development of relevant management procedures used and the newly established (implanted) organizational and economic methods to the task. Development, systematization and application of modern mathematical tools of controlling are the main theme of our work. We have considered the problems of controlling new areas - controlling risks, quality controlling, controlling organizational and economic support for control tasks in the aerospace industry, controlling research activities. We have also obtained new scientific results in controlling personnel and ecological safety controlling
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ABOUT THE EFFECT OF THE SCALE OF AN AGRO-INDUSTRIAL SYSTEM ON TASKS AND APPARATUS OF CONTROLLING SUBSYSTEMS IN ITS CONTROL SYSTEM

abstract 1291705045 issue 129 pp. 521 – 551 31.05.2017 ru 71
The problem of controlling a large-scale agroindustrial system, which should be solved in the process of organizing agricultural production, is considered. It is shown, that the scientific and methodological apparatus of the service subsystem controlling such an object should be expanded in comparison with ordinary enterprises of agroindustrial production. The article considers a new approach to the theory of management of large-scale socio-economic systems, based on a solidary information economy. Its main ideas are analyzed, its use as a basic organizational and economic theory instead of "economics" is justified. According to the solidary information economy, modern information technologies and decisionmaking theory make it possible to build information and communication system based on an "open network society" designed to identify people's needs and organize production in order to meet them. Predecessors - V.M. Glushkov, Anthony Stafford Beer, W. P. Cockshott, A. F. Cottrell and others. The main content of the research is the forecasting of the development of the future society and its economy, the development of organizational and economic methods and models designed to enhance the effectiveness of management processes. As an economic component of the state ideology of Russia, we propose to use a solidary information economy. The organizational and economic theory of Russia's innovative development should be based on a solidary information economy
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THE DEVELOPMENT AND MANAGEMENT DECISION-MAKING

abstract 1301706041 issue 130 pp. 567 – 597 30.06.2017 ru 81
The article is devoted to discussion of modern views on management decisions. We have released several bulk textbooks on the theory of decision-making. This article discusses several key aspects of this theory: a comparison of approaches to decisionmaking, the pitfalls of voting, and the methodology of decision-making, management responsibility. We have considered a simple example of a problem of decision-making in the management of the organization: selection a model of a new car to run into a series. Criteria for making a decision, which put forward by the four experts-theorists, contradicted each other. The Board of Directors decided to issue a vote. We have considered the "reefs" of voting. In the production and realization of administrative decisions we distinguish four levels. The first and most important level, which determine the success or failure of administrative activity is methodological. We discuss the levels of production and realization of administrative decisions. We give some examples where methodological errors lead to wrong management decisions. For example, a call to "maximum profit at the lowest cost" is quite common in the speeches and orders of a general nature. However, it is mistaken. Practice of development, adoption and implementation of solutions is based on a few basic concepts: Who makes the decisions? The procedure for preparation of the solution (the regulations). Objectives. Resources. The risks and uncertainties. Criteria for estimating decisions. The manager has his responsibility for the decisions taken. Volition of manager - the basis of management
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ORGANIZATIONAL-ECONOMIC SUPPORT OF MANAGEMENT IN ORGANIZATIONS AND AREAS WITH VIEWPOINT OF SOLIDARY INFORMATION ECONOMY

abstract 1241610062 issue 124 pp. 926 – 953 30.12.2016 ru 94
In this article we substantiate the necessity of the development of controlling of organizational and economic methods, including forecasting tools, the development and management of decision-making, and others. Controlling service is central to the development and implementation of organizational and economic methods to achieve the goals set by management. However, quite often the controlling service has a different name, justified by the history of the organization. To resolve this paradox, we begin with a discussion of the content of the terms "controlling" and especially "Controlling organizational and economic methods". We discuss the role of "controlling service" in the management of organizations and enterprises, as well as territorial and municipal entities. As an example of the controlling instrument of organizational and economic methods is considered an automated system of forecasting and prevention of aviation accidents, the use in this system the expert technologies and quantitative risk estimation methods. We consider this system as a controlling tool in the management of safety, while customers and performers do not use the term "controlling" in the official documentation of this project. In accordance with the Presidential Decree of 21 August 2012 № 1199 one of the 11 integrated indicators of the executive power is the indicator "estimate the population of the executive authorities." Its use in controlling in the field of strategic management of regional and municipal entities was proposed to carry out on the basis of solidary information economy (the former name - the informal information economy of the future), developed by us from 2007. We give the basic ideas of solidary information economy. However, the term "controlling" is not always used in relation to this subject. The same applies to researches related to organizational and economic modeling of innovation and development of innovative systems
258 kb

EFFECT OF THE METHODOLOGY FOR DECISION-MAKING IMPLICATIONS

abstract 1251701023 issue 125 pp. 319 – 345 31.01.2017 ru 98
The term "methodology" is understood differently. Methodology - the doctrine of the organization. Methodology (from the "method" and "logy") - the doctrine of structure, logical organization, methods and means of action. Methodology - the system of principles and methods of organization and construction of theoretical and practical activities, as well as teaching on this system. From these definitions it follows that the methodology - is an intellectual base rod defining approach to specific activities to management decisions. The methodology, which adheres to the manager, lies at the heart of its activities, determines its success or failure, manifested in the consequences of decisions. We give some examples of methodological errors which lead to wrong management decisions. So, the person who seriously requires providing "maximum profit at minimum cost" should be classified into one of two classes, which can be briefly described as "fools" and "liars". Profit must not be the sole purpose of business. The following section will discuss the methodology in place of conducting various scientific economic and technical studies. A natural continuation of the topic - the wording of some of the methodological problems using mathematical methods
198 kb

CONTROLLING OF CONSUMER PRICES DYNAMICS AND LIVING WAGE

abstract 1261702030 issue 126 pp. 403 – 421 28.02.2017 ru 99
In accordance with the Presidential Decree of 21 August 2012 № 1199 one of the 11 integrated indicators of the activity of executive authorities is the measure "real disposable income of the population". For its calculation it is necessary to measure the level of consumer prices. The article presents the minimum consumer basket of physiologically essential food products, designed in 1993 by the Institute of High Statistical Technologies and Econometrics (IHSTE) based on the initial data of the Institute of Nutrition of the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, and the results of measuring the cost of the consumer basket IHSTE and inflation index in 24 years (1993 - 2017). We discuss the application of the developed tools in Controlling of the level of consumer prices and living wage. According to M. Orshansky, living wage can be estimated by multiplying the cost of the minimum food basket by a factor which is equal to the quotient of all costs to the costs of food costs for a poor family. This work is aimed at the elimination of the monopoly of Rosstat in the calculation of indices of inflation, the living wage and the real disposable income of the population. The methods of the measurement and the use of inflation constitute an important part of training courses in econometrics, which are taught in the context of the scientific-educational complex "Engineering Business and Management" of the Baumann Moscow State Technical University. Nobel Laureate in Economics Vasiliy Leontiev thought that only 1% of economists analyze the newly collected data, 30% use the data contained in the publications of predecessors, and the rest did not turn in their arguments to the real world. This work belongs to the 1% of publications (which analyzes the newly collected data), about which Vasiliy Leontiev wrote
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APPLIED STATISTICS – THE STATE AND THE PROSPECTS

abstract 1191605003 issue 119 pp. 44 – 74 31.05.2016 ru 122
Applied Statistics - the science of how to analyze the statistical data. As an independent scientificpractical area it develops very quickly. It includes numerous widely and deeply developed scientific directions. Those who use the applied statistics and other statistical methods, usually focused on specific areas of study, ie, are not specialists in applied statistics. Therefore, it is useful to make a critical analysis of the current state of applied statistics and discuss trends in the development of statistical methods. Most of the practical importance of applied statistics justifies the usefulness of the work on the development of its methodology, in which the field of scientific and applied activities would be considered as a whole. We have given some brief information about the history of applied statistics. Based on Scientometrics of Applied Statistics we state that each expert has only a small part of accumulated knowledge in this area. We discuss five topical areas in which modern applied statistics develops, ie five "points of growth": nonparametric, robustness, bootstrap, statistics of interval data, and statistics of non-numerical data. We discuss some details of the basic ideas of a non-numerical statistics. In the last more than 60 years in Russia, there has been a huge gap between official statistics and the scientific community of experts on statistical methods
.