Name
Orlov Alexander Ivanovich
Scholastic degree
•
•
•
Academic rank
professor
Honorary rank
—
Organization, job position
Bauman Moscow State Technical University
Web site url
—
Articles count: 155
The correlation and determination coefficients are widely used in statistical data analysis. According to measurement theory, Pearson's linear paired correlation coefficient is applicable to variables measured on an interval scale. It cannot be used in the analysis of ordinal data. The nonparametric Spearman and Kendall rank coefficients estimate the relationship of ordinal variables. The critical value when testing the significance of the difference of the correlation coefficient from 0 depends on the sample size. Therefore, using the Chaddock Scale is incorrect. When using a passive experiment, the correlation coefficients are reasonably used for prediction, but not for control. To obtain probabilistic-statistical models intended for control, an active experiment is required. The effect of outliers on the Pearson correlation coefficient is very large. With an increase in the number of analyzed sets of predictors, the maximum of the corresponding correlation coefficients — indicators of approximation quality noticeably increases (the effect of “inflation” of the correlation coefficient). Four main regression analysis models are considered. Models of the least squares method with a determinate independent variable are distinguished. The distribution of deviations is arbitrary, however, to obtain the limit distributions of parameter estimates and regression dependences, we assume that the conditions of the central limit theorem are satisfied. The second type of model is based on a sample of random vectors. The dependence is nonparametric, the distribution of the two-dimensional vector is arbitrary. The estimation of the variance of an independent variable can be discussed only in the model based on a sample of random vectors, as well as the determination coefficient as a quality criterion for the model. Time series smoothing is discussed. Methods of restoring dependencies in spaces of a general nature are considered. It is shown that the limiting distribution of the natural estimate of the dimensionality of the model is geometric, and the construction of an informative subset of features encounters the effect of "inflation coefficient correlation". Various approaches to the regression analysis of interval data are discussed. Analysis of the variety of regression analysis models leads to the conclusion that there is no single “standard model”
We should have trained staff to implement
innovative strategies. Therefore, it is natural, that a
lot of attention is paid to the staffing of the
management processes of innovative activity at the
enterprises of the rocket and space industry (RCP).
Training and human resources management in
accordance with current legislation should be based
on professional standards. The content of
professional standards should reflect the results of
forecasting scientific and technical progress in the
field, for example, in the RCP. It is necessary to
forecast trends in the use of information and
communication technologies in solving management
problems in the socio-economic sphere in order to
reflect these developments in professional standards.
The approach to solving this problem is the subject
of this article. What should the professional standard
be like in the RCP? The main problem lies in the
fact that although the standard is to be enacted in the
near future, its actual impact on the industry will
start in 5 - 10 years and will continue for at least
another 10 years, ie, until the 2030s. Professional
standards should come from "Education through
Science" concept, ie, knowledge, skills,
competences, provided by a professional standard,
should be based on modern scientific achievements.
For example, mathematical methods of research
should be based on a new paradigm in the area of
knowledge and statistical data analysis methods
must meet high statistical techniques. For the
development of professional standards in the field of
the RCP it is necessary to predict the characteristics
of the qualification (level of knowledge, skills and
experience) required the employee to carry out
professional activities in the RCP in 2020 - 2030.
Modern information and communication
technologies are creating a fundamentally new
situation in the organization of the economy. We
have an ability to manage the work of organizational
units, scattered throughout the world, from a single
center. The requirement of presence in the
workplace is mainly a relic of the past. We have a
lot of advantages in a remote work
In the USSR higher attestation Commission from
1975 to the collapse of the USSR was subordinated
not to the Ministry of education and science, but to
the Council of Ministers of the USSR directly.
However, since then there is a steady trend of gradual
reduction of the status of the Commission. Today
it is not just included in the Ministry of education,
it is just one of the units of one of its structures:
the Rosobrnadzor. Reduced status of the HAC inevitably
leads to a decline in the status and in the adequacy
of scientific degrees assigned as well as scientific
ranks. This process of devaluation of traditional
academic degrees and titles assigned to the HAC,
has reached the point when a few years ago there
were abolished salary increments for them. Now,
instead of that, every university and research institutes
have developed their local, i.e. non-comparable
with each other scientometric methods of evaluation
of the results of scientific and teaching activities.
Despite the diversity of these techniques, there is a
common thing among all of them, which is the disproportionate
role of the h-index. The value of the
Hirsch index starts to play an important role in the
protection, when considering competitive cases for
positions, as well as in determining the monthly
rewards for the results of scientific and teaching
activities. By itself, this index is well founded, theoretically.
However, in connection with the practice
of its application in our conditions, in the collective
consciousness of the scientific community there was
a kind of mania, which the authors call the "Hirschmania".
This mania is characterized by elevated
unhealthy interest to the value of the Hirsch index,
as well as incorrect manipulation of its value, i.e.
inadequate artificial exaggeration of this value, as
well as a number of negative consequences of that
interest. In this study we have made an attempt to construct a quantitative measure for assessing the
extent of improper manipulation of the value of the
Hirsch index, and offered a science-based modification
of the h-index, insensitive (resistant) to the manipulation.
The article presents a technique for all
the numerical calculations, which is simple enough
for any author to use
In the statistical hypothesis testing, critical values
often point to a priori fixed (nominal) significance
levels. As such, typically researcher uses the values
of three numbers 0.01, 0.05, 0.1, to which may be
added a few levels: 0.001, 0.005, 0.02, and others.
However, for the statistics with discrete distribution
functions, which, in particular, include all
nonparametric statistical tests, the real significance
levels may be different from the nominal, differ at
times. Under the real significance level we refer to
the highest possible significance level of discrete
statistics, not exceeding a given nominal
significance level (ie, the transition to the next
highest possible value corresponding discrete
statistical significance level is greater than a
predetermined nominal). In the article, we have
discussed the difference between nominal and real
significance levels on the example of nonparametric
tests for the homogeneity of two independent
samples. We have also studied two-sample
Wilcoxon test, the criterion of van der Waerden,
Smirnov two-sample two-sided test, sign test, runs
test (Wolfowitz) and calculated the real significance
levels of the criteria for nominal significance level
of 0.05. The study of the power of these statistical
tests is accomplished by means of Monte Carlo
method. The main conclusion: the use of nominal
significance levels instead of real significance levels
for discrete statistics is inadmissible for small
sample sizes
We consider the nonparametric problem of reneval dependence, which is described by the sum of a linear trend and periodic function with a known period. We obtain the asymptotic distribution of the parameter estimates and the trend component. The methods of estimating the periodic component and designing in-terval forecast. In the model of the points of observa-tion, natural for applications, justified by the condi-tions of use. In particular, we prove an asymptotically unbiased estimate of the coefficient of the linear term
The requirements for the project design stages of creating rocket and space technology are specified. The algorithm of estimation the feasibility of such projects is proposed based on their innovation and investment components
We have considered the formation of the Russian
scientific school in the field of econometrics,
obtained its obtained scientific results, the
possibilities of their use in solving problems of the
economy, the organization of production and
controlling of industrial companies and
organizations, as well as in teaching. As
econometrics we consider a scientific and an
academic discipline devoted to the development and
application of statistical methods to study economic
phenomena and processes, in short, statistical
methods in economics. Therefore, we can say that a
lot of domestic books and articles, in particular, the
works by the author of this publication from the
beginning of the 70s, are the parts of econometrics.
However, in this article we consider only the works,
in the titles of which we can see the word of
"econometrics". In our country the term
"econometrics" has become popular since the mid
90s. However, many publications and training
courses are still developed in the western outdated
paradigm. They do not conform to the new paradigm
of mathematical methods of economics, the new
paradigm of applied statistics and mathematical
statistics, mathematical methods of research. Russian
science school in the field of econometrics operates
within the scientific school in the field of probability
theory and mathematical statistics based by A.N.
Kolmogorov. Russian science school is developed in
accordance with the new paradigm of mathematical
methods. It is necessary to examine the main results
of Russian scientific schools in the field of
econometrics. We present the information on the
institutional design of national scientific schools in
econometrics, in particular, on the activities of the
Institute of High Technologies statistics and
econometrics
Science is considered as a branch of the national economy. We discuss the relationship of areas of human activity, applied science and fundamental science. As an example, the development of the fundamental theory of decision-making and expertise are considered in the implementation of applied researches in the aviation and rocket-space industry. Is emphasized that the major achievement in science - the novelty of the results. We discuss the problem of estimation the effectiveness of scientific activity, the advantages and disadvantages of estimates based on bibliometric databases and citation indices, we show the basic role of expert technologies. Is examined the role of globalization and patriotism in the development of science. Is substantiated the principal difference between acquiring knowledge and promote research results. We consider it necessary to conduct detailed studies into the science of science and development based on these science-based recommendations for the management of science
We are developing a new organizational-economic
theory - solidary information economy, based on
the views of Aristotle. The name of this theory has
changed over time. Initially, we used the term
"nonformal information economy of the future",
and then began to use the term "solidary
information economy." In connection with
Biocosmology and neo-Aristotelism preferred is an
adequate term "functionalist organic information
economy. Further development of our theory is the
subject of this article. We begin with a brief review
of the economic views of Aristotle and the basic
ideas of solidary information economy. Then are
substantiated the withering away of the Family,
Private Property and the State. We discuss the
evolution of money - from gold coins to IOUs and
conventional units of circulation. We prove that the
market economy has remained in the XIX century
and the mainstream in modern economic science -
justification of insolvency of a market economy
and the need to move to a planned system of
economic management. We examine the impact of
ICT on economic activity. We develop the
approaches to decision-making in the functionalist
organic information economy. On the basis of
modern decision theory (especially expert
procedures) and information-communication
technologies earthlings can get rid of chrematistics
and will understand the term "economy" according
to Aristotle
As the economic component of state ideology of Russia we offer a solidary information economy. We have analyzed its main ideas and justified its use as a basic organizational-economic theory instead of
“economics”. According to the solidary information economy the modern information technology and decision theory allow, based on the “open network society”, to build information and communication
system designed to identify the needs of people and the organization of production in order to meet them