Name
Orlov Alexander Ivanovich
Scholastic degree
•
•
•
Academic rank
professor
Honorary rank
—
Organization, job position
Bauman Moscow State Technical University
Web site url
—
Articles count: 155
We are developing a new organizational-economic
theory - solidary information economy, based on
the views of Aristotle. The name of this theory has
changed over time. Initially, we used the term
"nonformal information economy of the future",
and then began to use the term "solidary
information economy." In connection with
Biocosmology and neo-Aristotelism preferred is an
adequate term "functionalist organic information
economy". This article summarizes the first phase
of work on the solidary information economy. We
have analyzed the array of publications. The main
problems are discussed, the solution of which is
devoted to research related to the considered basic
organizational and economic theory. The founder
of the economic theory is Aristotle. We discuss
Aristotle's positions, on which the economic theory
is based, in particular, solidary information
economy. We prove that the market economy has
remained in the XIX century and the mainstream in
modern economic science - justification of
insolvency of a market economy and the need to
move to a planned system of economic
management. We examine the impact of ICT on
economic activity. We develop the approaches to
decision-making in the solidary information
economy. On the basis of modern decision theory
(especially expert procedures) and informationcommunication
technologies people can get rid of
chrematistics and will understand the term of
"economy" according to Aristotle
Adequate and effective assessment of the efficiency, effectiveness and the quality of scientific activities of specific scientists and research teams is crucial for any information society and a society based on knowledge. The solution to this problem is the subject of scientometrics and its purpose. The current stage of development scientometrics differs greatly from his previous appearance in the open as well as paid on-line access to huge amount of detailed data on a large number of indicators on individual authors and on scientific organizations and universities. The world has well-known bibliographic databases: Web of Science, Scopus, Astrophysics Data System, PubMed, MathSciNet, zbMATH, Chemical Abstracts, Springer, Agris, or GeoRef. In Russia, it is primarily the Russian scientific citing index (RSCI). RSCI is a national information-analytical system, accumulating more than 9 million publications of Russian scientists, as well as the information about citation of these publications from more than 6,000 Russian journals. There is too much information; it is so-called "Big data". But the problem is how to make sense of these large data, more precisely, to identify the meaning of scientometric indicators) and thus to convert them into great information ("great information"), and then apply this information to achieve the objective of scientometrics, i.e. to transform it into a lot of knowledge ("great knowledge") about the specific scientists and research teams. The solution to this problem is creating a "Scientific smart metering system" based on the use of the automated system-cognitive analysis and its software tools – an intellectual system called "Eidos". The article provides a numerical example of the creation and application of Scientometric intelligent measurement system based on a small amount of real scientific data that are publicly available using free on-line access to the RSCI
In various applications, it is necessary to analyze
several expert orderings, i.e. clustered rankings
objects of examination. These areas include
technical studies, ecology, management, economics,
sociology, forecasting, etc. The objects can be some
samples of products, technologies, mathematical
models, projects, job applicants and others. In the
construction of the final opinion of the commission
of experts, it is important to find clustered ranking
that averages responses of experts. This article
describes a number of methods for clustered
rankings averaging, among which there is the
method of Kemeny median calculation, based on the
use of Kemeny distance. This article focuses on the
computing side of the final ranking among the
expert opinions problem by means of median
Kemeny calculation. There are currently no exact
algorithms for finding the set of all Kemeny
medians for a given number of permutations
(rankings without connections), only exhaustive
search. However, there are various approaches to
search for a part or all medians, which are analyzed
in this study. Zhikharev's heuristic algorithms serve
as a good tool to study the set of all Kemeny
medians: identifying any connections in mutual
locations of the medians in relation to the
aggregated expert opinions set (a variety of expert
answers permutations). Litvak offers one precise
and one heuristic approaches to calculate the median
among all possible sets of solutions. This article
introduces the necessary concepts, analyzes the
advantages of median Kemeny among other possible searches of expert orderings. It identifies
the comparative strengths and weaknesses of
examined computational ways
In 2011 – 2015, the scientific community was
represented by a new paradigm of mathematical
methods of research in the field of organizational
and economic modeling, econometrics and statistics.
There was a talk about a new paradigm of applied
statistics, mathematical statistics, mathematical
methods of economics, the analysis of statistical and
expert data in problems of economics and
management. We consider it necessary to develop
organizational and economic support for solving
specific application area, such as the space industry,
start with a new paradigm of mathematical methods.
The same requirements apply to the teaching of the
respective disciplines. In the development of
curricula and working programs, we must be based
on a new paradigm of mathematical methods of
research. In this study, we present the basic
information about a new paradigm of mathematical
methods of research. We start with a brief
formulation of a new paradigm. The presentation in
this article focuses primarily on the scientific field
of "Mathematical and instrumental methods of
economy", including organizational and economic
and economic-mathematical modeling, econometrics
and statistics, and decision theory, systems analysis,
cybernetics, operations research. We discuss the
basic concepts. We talk about the development of a
new paradigm. We carry out a detailed comparison
of the old and the new paradigms of mathematical
methods of research. We give information about the
educational literature, prepared in accordance with
the new paradigm of mathematical methods of
researches
Some estimators of the probability density function
in spaces of arbitrary nature are used for various
tasks in statistics of non-numerical data. Systematic
exposition of the theory of such estimators has been
started in our articles [3, 4]. This article is a direct
continuation of these works [3, 4]. We will regularly
use references to conditions and theorems of the
articles [3, 4], in which introduced several types of
nonparametric estimators of the probability density.
We have studied linear estimators. In this article, we
consider particular cases - kernel density estimates in
discrete spaces. When estimating the density of the
one-dimensional random variable, kernel estimators
become the Parzen-Rosenblatt estimators. Under
different conditions, we prove the consistency and
asymptotic normality of kernel density estimators.
We have introduced the concept of "preferred rate
differences" and are studied nuclear density
estimators based on it. We have introduced and
studied natural affinity measures which are used in
the analysis of the asymptotic behavior of kernel
density estimators. Kernel density estimates are
considered for sequences of spaces with measures.
We give the conditions under which the difference
between the densities of probability distributions and
of the mathematical expectations of their nuclear
estimates uniformly tends to 0. Is established the
uniform convergence of the variances. We find the
conditions on the kernel functions, in which take
place these theorems about uniform convergence. As
examples, there are considered the spaces of fuzzy
subsets of finite sets and the spaces of all subsets of
finite sets. We give the condition to support the use
of kernel density estimation in finite spaces. We
discuss the counterexample of space of rankings in
which the application of kernel density estimators
can not be correct
We consider an approach to the transition from
continuous to discrete scale which was defined by
means of step of quantization (i.e. interval of
grouping). Applied purpose is selecting the number
of gradations in sociological questionnaires. In
accordance with the methodology of the general
stability theory, we offer to choose a step so that the
errors, generated by the quantization, were of the
same order as the errors inherent in the answers of
respondents. At a finite length of interval of the
measured value change of the scale this step of
quantization uniquely determines the number of
gradations. It turns out that for many issues gated it
is enough to point 3 - 6 answers gradations (hints).
On the basis of the probabilistic model we have
proved three theorems of quantization. They are
allowed to develop recommendations on the choice
of the number of gradations in sociological
questionnaires. The idea of "quantization" has
applications not only in sociology. We have noted,
that it can be used not only to select the number of
gradations. So, there are two very interesting
applications of the idea of "quantization" in
inventory management theory - in the two-level
model and in the classical Wilson model taking into
account deviations from it (shows that
"quantization" can use as a way to improve
stability). For the two-level inventory management
model we proved three theorems. We have
abandoned the assumption of Poisson demand,
which is rarely carried out in practice, and we give
generally fairly simple formulas for finding the
optimal values of the control parameters,
simultaneously correcting the mistakes of
predecessors. Once again we see the interpenetration
of statistical methods that have arisen to analyze
data from a variety of subject areas, in this case,
from sociology and logistics. We have another proof
that the statistical methods - single scientificpractical
area that is inappropriate to share by areas
of applications
The article begins with the letter of the chief
engineer of chemical plant near Moscow. He
requests to analyze of data by means of modern
statistical methods and give an opinion on the
presence (or absence) of the relationship between
the two methods of determining the viscosity of the
mastic. For each of the batches of mastic It was
presented two numbers - the viscosity measurement
results of the two methods. These numbers form two
paired samples. We want to install, give whether
two specific methods similar results. The true values
of viscosity in different batches are not equal. Their
difference is not allows us to combine the results of
the first measurement method in first sample, the
results of the second method - in the second sample,
as we can do in the case of testing the homogeneity
of two independent samples. For solutions to this
problem we discuss four statistical criterions, based
on a study of the differences between corresponding
values in two paired samples. We test the hypothesis
of equality 0 of median of these differences (sign
test) and of equality 0 of the mathematical
expectation of these differences. Hypothesis of
testing of equality of the distribution functions of
two paired samples is reduced to the hypothesis of
symmetry of the distribution function of these
differences with respect to 0. In the alternative of the
shift is proposed to use the Wilcoxon signed rank
criterion. In the total alternative is proposed to use
criterion of the omega-square type which is
developed by the author of this article
In modern conditions of quantitative and qualitative
degradation of science in general and economics in
particular, especially in our country, the scientific
direction of "Controlling" stands out not only for its
activity, but also the rapid intensive and extensive
growth. This work is the summary of the main
publications of scientific results on controlling
obtained at the Laboratory of economicmathematical
methods in controlling of Scientific
and Educational Center "Controlling and
management innovations" of Bauman Moscow State
Technical University. We discuss the concept of
"method", "tool", "mechanism", "algorithm" in
relation to the Controlling. Adequate use of these
terms is necessary for the formulation of sound
scientific results, and to provide their perception of
the scientific community. Innovations in the field of
management in industry and other sectors of the
economy based, in particular, on the use of new
adequate organizational and economic methods.
Controlling in this area - it is the development of
relevant management procedures used and the newly
established (implanted) organizational and economic
methods to the task. Development, systematization
and application of modern mathematical tools of
controlling are the main theme of our work. We
have considered the problems of controlling new
areas - controlling risks, quality controlling,
controlling organizational and economic support for
control tasks in the aerospace industry, controlling
research activities. We have also obtained new
scientific results in controlling personnel and
ecological safety controlling
The article is devoted to the discussion of the
organization of clinical-statistical studies and
experiments. We have considered the examples of
the application of statistical methods in scientific
medical research. Under the clinical-statistical
research we understand specially organized
collection and analysis of medical data about the
course of disease in patients, research of the
dynamics of objective and subjective indicators of
the state of reaction to these or other therapeutic
effects. We study one, two or more groups of
individuals (patients or healthy), conclusions are
drawn on the whole group, but not for each
individual patient. The purpose of research - to
transfer the conclusions reached for the sample to
the general population, i.e., clinical and statistical
study focused on the production of useful
recommendations concerning those patients who fall
into the field of view of doctors after the end of the
study. There are two main types of research -
prospective and retrospective. The first related to the
analysis of the last patients, the second - to
monitoring the course of their disease in the future.
We have considered typical mistakes in the
organization of clinical-statistical studies. When
planning a research, we usually distinguish the
experimental and control groups, which are identical
or similar in all respects except for the studied
factors (exposure). We discuss the various options
for blind methods and consider the application of
statistical models and methods in scientific medical
research. We have analyzed examples of confidence
estimation of proportion (probability) and the
homogeneity test of probabilities. For statistical
modeling we use the Poisson distribution in the case
of small probability. With its help, we analyze
statistical data on the opisthorchiasis
We consider the methods for estimation of the
effectiveness and quality of the scientific activities
of the researcher, of the organization, of the
magazine. Performance indicators of scientific
activity are used as an important part in the
estimation of higher education institutions, the
innovative capacity of enterprises, etc. To estimate
the effectiveness of scientific activity is natural to
use intellectual tools which are well-established in
other subject areas. This will include, in particular,
the balanced scorecard, based on key performance
indicators (hence the title of this article), as well as
controlling, primarily controlling of research
activities. There are two more developed and
widely used types of tools for estimation the
effectiveness of the scientific activity - the
scientometric indicators and the expert estimators.
Their critical analysis is the subject of this article.
The goal - to choose the most effective tool.
Different versions of manipulating of values of
scientometric indicators in the Russian Federation,
in our estimation, are still relatively rare. Perhaps
this is due to the relatively short period of their use
in the management of science. Since an indicator
such as citation index (the number of citations of
publications) of researcher, allows estimating its
contribution to science, the use of this
scientometric indicator for the management of
science is justified. At the same time, the number
of publications and especially h-index is not
possible to objectively estimate the effectiveness of
research activities, particularly in view of the
properties of the real bibliometric databases. Expert
procedures have several disadvantages. In this
article we discuss the real effectiveness of expert
procedures in the areas of their application, as
conferring academic degrees and elections to the
National Academy of Sciences (primarily in the
Russian Academy of Sciences), as well as
appointments to senior positions. The basic
principles of expertise in these areas remain the
same for the past 70 years. Based on an analysis of
practice it is necessary to ascertain the lack of
efficacy of expert estimators in these areas. Rationale to what has been said is given in the
article