Scientific Journal of KubSAU

Polythematic online scientific journal
of Kuban State Agrarian University
ISSN 1990-4665
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Name

Orlov Alexander Ivanovich

Scholastic degree




Academic rank

professor

Honorary rank

Organization, job position

Bauman Moscow State Technical University
   

Web site url

Email

prof-orlov@mail.ru


Articles count: 123

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1123 kb

SYSTEM FUZZY INTERVAL MATHEMATICS - A PROMISING AREA OF THEORETICAL AND COMPUTATIONAL MATHEMATICS

abstract 0911307015 issue 91 pp. 258 – 310 30.09.2013 ru 1045
The article b riefly considers the prospects of some “points of growth” in the modern theoretical and computational mathematics: the numbers and sets, i.e. the base of modern mathematics; mathematical, pragmatic and computer numbers; from the usual sets - to unclear; the theory of fuzzy sets and “fuzzy dou-bling” of mathematics; the mix of fuzzy set theory to the theory of random sets; interval numbers as a spe-cial case of fuzzy sets; development of interval mathematics (interval doubling of mathematics); the system as a generalization of a multitude; the systematic generalization of mathematics and tasks emerging; the systematic generalization of operations on sets (on the example of the operation of the Boolean association); the systematic generalization of the concept of functions and functional dependencies participation; cognitive function; the matrix of knowledge as fuzziness with an estimated degree of truth of showing data systems arguments on the system of values of the function; modification of the method of least squares for the approximation of cognitive functions; development of the idea of the systematic generalization of mathematics in the field of information theory – system emergent information theory; information measures of the level of consistency; ratios of emergence; direct and opposite, direct and indirect logical reasoning with an estimated level of truth; intellectual system of Eidos X++ as a toolkit that implements the ideas of system of a fuzzy interval sum of mathematics
285 kb

SYSTEM PARADIGM AS THE BASIS OF CREATION OF AGRO-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX CONTROLLING SERVICE

abstract 1321708043 issue 132 pp. 518 – 548 31.10.2017 ru 59
System paradigm is discussed conformably to functioning of controlling institution of a large-scale agro-industrial system. Presently the systemacity became the general platform of fundamental and applied, scientific and practical elaborations and projects. Now in the sphere of system researches surge of interest in questions of classification is observed. Apparently, it is connected with accumulation of results of private researches in all areas of this discipline and with inevitable transdisciplinary crossings of their practical applications. So, undoubted intervention of high technologies to the agrarian sphere is observed. The efficiency of this introduction, certainly, depends on coordination of actions of developers of various subject domains. On the basis of the objective analysis it must be noted that in the arsenal of managers, especially foreign ones, there is practically no fundamentally new methods and tools of controlling. So says the executive director of Russian Association of Controllers prof. S. G. Falco. However, promising mathematical and instrumental methods of controlling actively developed in our country. It is necessary to implement them. For example, managers should be used advanced mathematical and instrumental methods of controlling. These methods are based on the modern development of mathematics as a whole - on the system interval fuzzy math. Considered methods are developed in accordance with the new paradigm of mathematical methods of research. It includes new paradigms of applied statistics, mathematical statistics, mathematical methods of economics, methods of analysis of statistical and expert data in management and control. In the XXI century there were more than 10 books issued, developed in accordance with the new paradigm of mathematical methods of research. The systems approach to solving specific applications often requires going beyond the economy. Very important are the procedures for the introduction of innovative methods and tools. In this article we consider the above research results in their interconnection
202 kb

TESTING OF HOMOGENEITY OF PAIRED SAMPLES

abstract 1231609047 issue 123 pp. 708 – 726 30.11.2016 ru 244
The article begins with the letter of the chief engineer of chemical plant near Moscow. He requests to analyze of data by means of modern statistical methods and give an opinion on the presence (or absence) of the relationship between the two methods of determining the viscosity of the mastic. For each of the batches of mastic It was presented two numbers - the viscosity measurement results of the two methods. These numbers form two paired samples. We want to install, give whether two specific methods similar results. The true values of viscosity in different batches are not equal. Their difference is not allows us to combine the results of the first measurement method in first sample, the results of the second method - in the second sample, as we can do in the case of testing the homogeneity of two independent samples. For solutions to this problem we discuss four statistical criterions, based on a study of the differences between corresponding values in two paired samples. We test the hypothesis of equality 0 of median of these differences (sign test) and of equality 0 of the mathematical expectation of these differences. Hypothesis of testing of equality of the distribution functions of two paired samples is reduced to the hypothesis of symmetry of the distribution function of these differences with respect to 0. In the alternative of the shift is proposed to use the Wilcoxon signed rank criterion. In the total alternative is proposed to use criterion of the omega-square type which is developed by the author of this article
262 kb

THE APPROACHES TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZATIONAL-ECONOMIC SUPPORT FOR CONTROL PROBLEMS IN THE AEROSPACE INDUSTRY

abstract 0991405005 issue 99 pp. 73 – 100 30.05.2014 ru 1123
For strategic and operational management tasks in the aerospace industry we use a variety of organizational-economic models and methods. Their set is called an organizational-economic support. In this article we discuss the approaches to the development of adequate organizational-economic support in the aerospace industry. In particular, we consider the problems of estimation of the effectiveness and management of innovation-investment projects to create aviation and space technology
0 kb

THE ASYMPTOTIC INFORMATION CRITERION OF NOISE QUALITY

abstract 1161602100 issue 116 pp. 1564 – 1613 29.02.2016 ru 0
Intuitively everyone understands that noise is a signal in which there no information is, or which in practice fails to reveal the information. More precisely, it is clear that a certain sequence of elements (the number) the more is the noise, the less information is contained in the values of some elements on the values of others. It is even stranger, that noone has suggested the way, but even the idea of measuring the amount of information in some fragments of signal of other fragments and its use as a criterion for assessing the degree of closeness of the signal to the noise. The authors propose the asymptotic information criterion of the quality of noise, and the method, technology and methodology of its application in practice. As a method of application of the asymptotic information criterion of noise quality, we offer, in practice, the automated systemcognitive analysis (ASC-analysis), and as a technology and software tools of ASC-analysis we offer the universal cognitive analytical system called "Eidos". As a method, we propose a technique of creating applications in the system, as well as their use for solving problems of identification, prediction, decision making and research the subject area by examining its model. We present an illustrative numerical example showing the ideas presented and demonstrating the efficiency of the proposed asymptotic information criterion of the quality of the noise, and the method, technology and methodology of its application in practice
265 kb

THE CURRENT STATE OF RISK-CONTROLLING

abstract 0981404003 issue 98 pp. 30 – 63 30.04.2014 ru 1549
The concept of risk-controlling is based on the general theory of risk. The current state of risk-management in our country is reviewed. We also discuss the research on risk-controlling made in the BMSTU Laboratory of economic-mathematical methods in controlling
283 kb

THE DEVELOPMENT AND MANAGEMENT DECISION-MAKING

abstract 1301706041 issue 130 pp. 567 – 597 30.06.2017 ru 80
The article is devoted to discussion of modern views on management decisions. We have released several bulk textbooks on the theory of decision-making. This article discusses several key aspects of this theory: a comparison of approaches to decisionmaking, the pitfalls of voting, and the methodology of decision-making, management responsibility. We have considered a simple example of a problem of decision-making in the management of the organization: selection a model of a new car to run into a series. Criteria for making a decision, which put forward by the four experts-theorists, contradicted each other. The Board of Directors decided to issue a vote. We have considered the "reefs" of voting. In the production and realization of administrative decisions we distinguish four levels. The first and most important level, which determine the success or failure of administrative activity is methodological. We discuss the levels of production and realization of administrative decisions. We give some examples where methodological errors lead to wrong management decisions. For example, a call to "maximum profit at the lowest cost" is quite common in the speeches and orders of a general nature. However, it is mistaken. Practice of development, adoption and implementation of solutions is based on a few basic concepts: Who makes the decisions? The procedure for preparation of the solution (the regulations). Objectives. Resources. The risks and uncertainties. Criteria for estimating decisions. The manager has his responsibility for the decisions taken. Volition of manager - the basis of management
220 kb

THE DIVERSITY OF CONTROLLING DOMAINS AND INSTRUMENTS

abstract 1231609046 issue 123 pp. 688 – 707 30.11.2016 ru 63
In modern conditions of quantitative and qualitative degradation of science in general and economics in particular, especially in our country, the scientific direction of "Controlling" stands out not only for its activity, but also the rapid intensive and extensive growth. This work is the summary of the main publications of scientific results on controlling obtained at the Laboratory of economicmathematical methods in controlling of Scientific and Educational Center "Controlling and management innovations" of Bauman Moscow State Technical University. We discuss the concept of "method", "tool", "mechanism", "algorithm" in relation to the Controlling. Adequate use of these terms is necessary for the formulation of sound scientific results, and to provide their perception of the scientific community. Innovations in the field of management in industry and other sectors of the economy based, in particular, on the use of new adequate organizational and economic methods. Controlling in this area - it is the development of relevant management procedures used and the newly established (implanted) organizational and economic methods to the task. Development, systematization and application of modern mathematical tools of controlling are the main theme of our work. We have considered the problems of controlling new areas - controlling risks, quality controlling, controlling organizational and economic support for control tasks in the aerospace industry, controlling research activities. We have also obtained new scientific results in controlling personnel and ecological safety controlling
244 kb

THE GROWTH POINTS OF STATISTICAL METHODS

abstract 1031409011 issue 103 pp. 136 – 162 30.11.2014 ru 722
On the basis of a new paradigm of applied mathematical statistics, data analysis and economic-mathematical methods are identified; we have also discussed five topical areas in which modern applied statistics is developing as well as the other statistical methods, i.e. five "growth points" – nonparametric statistics, robustness, computer-statistical methods, statistics of interval data, statistics of non-numeric data
230 kb

THE LIMIT THEORY OF THE SOLUTIONS OF EXTREMAL STATISTICAL PROBLEMS

abstract 1331709045 issue 133 pp. 579 – 600 30.11.2017 ru 175
Many procedures of applied mathematical statistics are based on the solution of extreme problems. As examples it is enough to name methods of least squares, maximum likelihood, minimal contrast, main components. In accordance with the new paradigm of applied mathematical statistics, the central part of this scientific and practical discipline is the statistics of non-numerical data (it is also called the statistics of objects of non-numerical nature or non-numeric statistics) in which the empirical and theoretical averages are determined by solving extreme problems. As shown in this paper, the laws of large numbers are valid, according to which empirical averages approach the theoretical ones with increasing sample size. Of great importance are limit theorems describing the asymptotic behavior of solutions of extremal statistical problems. For example, in the method of least squares, selective estimates of the parameters of the dependence approach the theoretical values, the maximum likelihood estimates tend to the estimated parameters, etc. It is quite natural to seek to study the asymptotic behavior of solutions of extremal statistical problems in the general case. The corresponding results can be used in various special cases. This is the theoretical and practical use of the limiting results obtained under the weakest assumptions. The present article is devoted to a series of limit theorems concerning the asymptotics of solutions of extremal statistical problems in the most general formulations. Along with the results of probability theory, the apparatus of general topology is used. The main differences between the results of this article and numerous studies on related topics are: we consider spaces of a general nature; the behavior of solutions is studied for extremal statistical problems of general form; it is possible to weaken ordinary requirements of bicompactness type by introducing conditions of the type of asymptotic uniform divisibility
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