Name
Orlov Alexander Ivanovich
Scholastic degree
•
•
•
Academic rank
professor
Honorary rank
—
Organization, job position
Bauman Moscow State Technical University
Web site url
—
Articles count: 155
In this article we substantiate the necessity of the
development of controlling of organizational and
economic methods, including forecasting tools, the
development and management of decision-making,
and others. Controlling service is central to the
development and implementation of organizational
and economic methods to achieve the goals set by
management. However, quite often the controlling
service has a different name, justified by the history
of the organization. To resolve this paradox, we
begin with a discussion of the content of the terms
"controlling" and especially "Controlling
organizational and economic methods". We discuss
the role of "controlling service" in the management
of organizations and enterprises, as well as territorial
and municipal entities. As an example of the
controlling instrument of organizational and
economic methods is considered an automated
system of forecasting and prevention of aviation
accidents, the use in this system the expert
technologies and quantitative risk estimation
methods. We consider this system as a controlling
tool in the management of safety, while customers
and performers do not use the term "controlling" in
the official documentation of this project. In
accordance with the Presidential Decree of 21
August 2012 â„– 1199 one of the 11 integrated
indicators of the executive power is the indicator
"estimate the population of the executive
authorities." Its use in controlling in the field of
strategic management of regional and municipal
entities was proposed to carry out on the basis of
solidary information economy (the former name -
the informal information economy of the future),
developed by us from 2007. We give the basic ideas
of solidary information economy. However, the
term "controlling" is not always used in relation to
this subject. The same applies to researches related
to organizational and economic modeling of
innovation and development of innovative systems
The term "methodology" is understood differently. Methodology - the doctrine of the organization. Methodology (from the "method" and "logy") - the doctrine of structure, logical organization, methods and means of action. Methodology - the system of principles and methods of organization and construction of theoretical and practical activities, as well as teaching on this system. From these definitions it follows that the methodology - is an intellectual base rod defining approach to specific activities to management decisions. The methodology, which adheres to the manager, lies at the heart of its activities, determines its success or failure, manifested in the consequences of decisions. We give some examples of methodological errors which lead to wrong management decisions. So, the person who seriously requires providing "maximum profit at minimum cost" should be classified into one of two classes, which can be briefly described as "fools" and "liars". Profit must not be the sole purpose of business. The following section will discuss the methodology in place of conducting various scientific economic and technical studies. A natural continuation of the topic - the wording of some of the methodological problems using mathematical methods
In accordance with the Presidential Decree of 21
August 2012 â„– 1199 one of the 11 integrated
indicators of the activity of executive authorities is
the measure "real disposable income of the
population". For its calculation it is necessary to
measure the level of consumer prices. The article
presents the minimum consumer basket of
physiologically essential food products, designed in
1993 by the Institute of High Statistical
Technologies and Econometrics (IHSTE) based on
the initial data of the Institute of Nutrition of the
Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, and the
results of measuring the cost of the consumer basket
IHSTE and inflation index in 24 years (1993 -
2017). We discuss the application of the developed
tools in Controlling of the level of consumer prices
and living wage. According to M. Orshansky, living
wage can be estimated by multiplying the cost of the
minimum food basket by a factor which is equal to
the quotient of all costs to the costs of food costs for
a poor family. This work is aimed at the elimination
of the monopoly of Rosstat in the calculation of
indices of inflation, the living wage and the real
disposable income of the population. The methods
of the measurement and the use of inflation
constitute an important part of training courses in
econometrics, which are taught in the context of the
scientific-educational complex "Engineering
Business and Management" of the Baumann
Moscow State Technical University. Nobel Laureate
in Economics Vasiliy Leontiev thought that only 1%
of economists analyze the newly collected data, 30%
use the data contained in the publications of
predecessors, and the rest did not turn in their
arguments to the real world. This work belongs to
the 1% of publications (which analyzes the newly
collected data), about which Vasiliy Leontiev wrote
The founder of the economic theory is Aristotle.
The so-called "market economy" is a perversion of
Aristotle's views. We have to eliminate distortions.
What can replace the "market economy"? We are
developing a new organizational-economic theory -
solidary information economy, based on the views
of Aristotle. The name of this theory has changed
over time. Initially, we used the term "nonformal
information economy of the future", and then
began to use the term "solidary information
economy." In connection with Biocosmology and
neo-Aristotelism preferred is an adequate term
"functionalist organic information economy". This
article describes the main provisions of solidary
information economy, intended to replace the
market economy as a management tool. The main
problems are discussed, the solution of which is
devoted to research related to the considered basic
organizational and economic theory. We discuss
Aristotle's positions, on which the economic theory
is based, in particular, solidary information
economy. We prove that the market economy has
remained in the XIX century and the mainstream in
modern economic science - justification of
insolvency of a market economy and the need to
move to a planned system of economic
management. We examine the impact of ICT on
economic activity. We develop the approaches to
decision-making in the solidary information
economy. On the basis of modern decision theory
(especially expert procedures) and informationcommunication
technologies people can get rid of
chrematistics and will understand the term of
"economy" according to Aristotle
Statistical methods are widely used in domestic
feasibility studies. However, for most managers,
economists and engineers, they are exotic. This is
due to the fact that modern statistical methods are
not taught in the universities. We discuss the
situation, focusing on the statistical methods for
economic and feasibility studies, ie, econometrics.
In the world of science, econometrics has a rightful
place. There are scientific journals in econometrics,
Nobel Prizes in Economics are given to series of
researches in econometrics. The situation in the field
of scientific and practical work and especially the
teaching of econometrics in Russia is disadvantaged.
Often, individual particular constructions replace
econometrics in general, such as those related to
regression analysis. The article is devoted to
econometrics as an academic discipline. Our course
begins with a discussion of the structure of modern
econometrics, the connections between applied
statistics and econometric methods. We consider
sample researches (analysis of surveys results), the
elements of econometrics numbers, and methods of
testing of statistical hypothesis about homogeneity.
We have given the concepts of regression analysis,
econometric classification methods, modern
measurement theory. The important places are
occupied by the statistics of non-numerical data
(including fuzzy sets and their links with random
sets) and the statistics of interval data. The problem
of the stability of statistical procedures with respect
to the tolerances of input data and model
prerequisites is discussed. The representations of the
econometric methods of expert research and quality
control, analysis and forecasting of time series,
econometrics of forecasting and risks are given
The problem of controlling a large-scale agroindustrial
system, which should be solved in the
process of organizing agricultural production, is
considered. It is shown, that the scientific and
methodological apparatus of the service subsystem
controlling such an object should be expanded in
comparison with ordinary enterprises of agroindustrial
production. The article considers a new
approach to the theory of management of large-scale
socio-economic systems, based on a solidary
information economy. Its main ideas are analyzed,
its use as a basic organizational and economic
theory instead of "economics" is justified.
According to the solidary information economy,
modern information technologies and decisionmaking
theory make it possible to build information
and communication system based on an "open
network society" designed to identify people's needs
and organize production in order to meet them.
Predecessors - V.M. Glushkov, Anthony Stafford
Beer, W. P. Cockshott, A. F. Cottrell and others.
The main content of the research is the forecasting
of the development of the future society and its
economy, the development of organizational and
economic methods and models designed to enhance
the effectiveness of management processes. As an
economic component of the state ideology of
Russia, we propose to use a solidary information
economy. The organizational and economic theory
of Russia's innovative development should be based
on a solidary information economy
The article is devoted to discussion of modern views
on management decisions. We have released several
bulk textbooks on the theory of decision-making.
This article discusses several key aspects of this
theory: a comparison of approaches to decisionmaking,
the pitfalls of voting, and the methodology
of decision-making, management responsibility. We
have considered a simple example of a problem of
decision-making in the management of the
organization: selection a model of a new car to run
into a series. Criteria for making a decision, which
put forward by the four experts-theorists,
contradicted each other. The Board of Directors
decided to issue a vote. We have considered the
"reefs" of voting. In the production and realization
of administrative decisions we distinguish four
levels. The first and most important level, which
determine the success or failure of administrative
activity is methodological. We discuss the levels of
production and realization of administrative
decisions. We give some examples where
methodological errors lead to wrong management
decisions. For example, a call to "maximum profit at
the lowest cost" is quite common in the speeches
and orders of a general nature. However, it is
mistaken. Practice of development, adoption and
implementation of solutions is based on a few basic
concepts: Who makes the decisions? The procedure
for preparation of the solution (the regulations).
Objectives. Resources. The risks and uncertainties.
Criteria for estimating decisions. The manager has
his responsibility for the decisions taken. Volition of
manager - the basis of management
Nonparametric estimates of the probability
distribution density in spaces of arbitrary nature are
one of the main tools of non-numerical statistics.
Their particular cases are considered - kernel density
estimates in spaces of arbitrary nature, histogram
estimations and Fix-Hodges-type estimates. The
purpose of this article is the completion of a series
of papers devoted to the mathematical study of the
asymptotic properties of various types of
nonparametric estimates of the probability
distribution density in spaces of general nature.
Thus, a mathematical foundation is applied to the
application of such estimates in non-numerical
statistics. We begin by considering the mean square
error of the kernel density estimate and, in order to
maximize the order of its decrease, the choice of the
kernel function and the sequence of the blur
indicators. The basic concepts are the circular
distribution function and the circular density. The
order of convergence in the general case is the same
as in estimating the density of a numerical random
variable, but the main conditions are imposed not on
the density of a random variable, but on the circular
density. Next, we consider other types of
nonparametric density estimates - histogram
estimates and Fix-Hodges-type estimates. Then we
study nonparametric regression estimates and their
application to solve discriminant analysis problems
in a general nature space
System paradigm is discussed conformably to
functioning of controlling institution of a large-scale
agro-industrial system. Presently the systemacity
became the general platform of fundamental and
applied, scientific and practical elaborations and
projects. Now in the sphere of system researches
surge of interest in questions of classification is
observed. Apparently, it is connected with
accumulation of results of private researches in all
areas of this discipline and with inevitable
transdisciplinary crossings of their practical
applications. So, undoubted intervention of high
technologies to the agrarian sphere is observed. The
efficiency of this introduction, certainly, depends on
coordination of actions of developers of various
subject domains. On the basis of the objective
analysis it must be noted that in the arsenal of
managers, especially foreign ones, there is
practically no fundamentally new methods and tools
of controlling. So says the executive director of
Russian Association of Controllers prof. S. G. Falco.
However, promising mathematical and instrumental
methods of controlling actively developed in our
country. It is necessary to implement them. For
example, managers should be used advanced
mathematical and instrumental methods of
controlling. These methods are based on the modern
development of mathematics as a whole - on the
system interval fuzzy math. Considered methods are
developed in accordance with the new paradigm of
mathematical methods of research. It includes new
paradigms of applied statistics, mathematical
statistics, mathematical methods of economics,
methods of analysis of statistical and expert data in management and control. In the XXI century there
were more than 10 books issued, developed in
accordance with the new paradigm of mathematical
methods of research. The systems approach to
solving specific applications often requires going
beyond the economy. Very important are the
procedures for the introduction of innovative
methods and tools. In this article we consider the
above research results in their interconnection
Many procedures of applied mathematical statistics
are based on the solution of extreme problems. As
examples it is enough to name methods of least
squares, maximum likelihood, minimal contrast,
main components. In accordance with the new
paradigm of applied mathematical statistics, the
central part of this scientific and practical discipline
is the statistics of non-numerical data (it is also
called the statistics of objects of non-numerical
nature or non-numeric statistics) in which the
empirical and theoretical averages are determined by
solving extreme problems. As shown in this paper,
the laws of large numbers are valid, according to
which empirical averages approach the theoretical
ones with increasing sample size. Of great
importance are limit theorems describing the
asymptotic behavior of solutions of extremal
statistical problems. For example, in the method of
least squares, selective estimates of the parameters
of the dependence approach the theoretical values,
the maximum likelihood estimates tend to the
estimated parameters, etc. It is quite natural to seek
to study the asymptotic behavior of solutions of
extremal statistical problems in the general case.
The corresponding results can be used in various
special cases. This is the theoretical and practical
use of the limiting results obtained under the
weakest assumptions. The present article is devoted
to a series of limit theorems concerning the
asymptotics of solutions of extremal statistical
problems in the most general formulations. Along
with the results of probability theory, the apparatus
of general topology is used. The main differences
between the results of this article and numerous
studies on related topics are: we consider spaces of a
general nature; the behavior of solutions is studied
for extremal statistical problems of general form; it
is possible to weaken ordinary requirements of
bicompactness type by introducing conditions of the
type of asymptotic uniform divisibility