Name
Orlov Alexander Ivanovich
Scholastic degree
•
•
•
Academic rank
professor
Honorary rank
—
Organization, job position
Bauman Moscow State Technical University
Web site url
—
Articles count: 155
Fuzzy sets are the special form of objects of nonnumeric
nature. Therefore, in the processing of the
sample, the elements of which are fuzzy sets, a
variety of methods for the analysis of statistical data
of any nature can be used - the calculation of the
average, non-parametric density estimators,
construction of diagnostic rules, etc. We have told
about the development of our work on the theory of
fuzziness (1975 - 2015). In the first of our work on
fuzzy sets (1975), the theory of random sets is
regarded as a generalization of the theory of fuzzy
sets. In non-fiction series "Mathematics.
Cybernetics" (publishing house "Knowledge") in
1980 the first book by a Soviet author fuzzy sets is
published - our brochure "Optimization problems
and fuzzy variables". This book is essentially a
"squeeze" our research of 70-ies, ie, the research on
the theory of stability and in particular on the
statistics of objects of non-numeric nature, with a
bias in the methodology. The book includes the
main results of the fuzzy theory and its note to the
random set theory, as well as new results (first
publication!) of statistics of fuzzy sets. On the basis
of further experience, you can expect that the theory
of fuzzy sets will be more actively applied in
organizational and economic modeling of industry
management processes. We discuss the concept of
the average value of a fuzzy set. We have
considered a number of statements of problems of
testing statistical hypotheses on fuzzy sets. We have
also proposed and justified some algorithms for
restore relationships between fuzzy variables; we
have given the representation of various variants of
fuzzy cluster analysis of data and variables and
described some methods of collection and
description of fuzzy data
We consider the methods for estimation of the
effectiveness and quality of the scientific activities
of the researcher, of the organization, of the
magazine. Performance indicators of scientific
activity are used as an important part in the
estimation of higher education institutions, the
innovative capacity of enterprises, etc. To estimate
the effectiveness of scientific activity is natural to
use intellectual tools which are well-established in
other subject areas. This will include, in particular,
the balanced scorecard, based on key performance
indicators (hence the title of this article), as well as
controlling, primarily controlling of research
activities. There are two more developed and
widely used types of tools for estimation the
effectiveness of the scientific activity - the
scientometric indicators and the expert estimators.
Their critical analysis is the subject of this article.
The goal - to choose the most effective tool.
Different versions of manipulating of values of
scientometric indicators in the Russian Federation,
in our estimation, are still relatively rare. Perhaps
this is due to the relatively short period of their use
in the management of science. Since an indicator
such as citation index (the number of citations of
publications) of researcher, allows estimating its
contribution to science, the use of this
scientometric indicator for the management of
science is justified. At the same time, the number
of publications and especially h-index is not
possible to objectively estimate the effectiveness of
research activities, particularly in view of the
properties of the real bibliometric databases. Expert
procedures have several disadvantages. In this
article we discuss the real effectiveness of expert
procedures in the areas of their application, as
conferring academic degrees and elections to the
National Academy of Sciences (primarily in the
Russian Academy of Sciences), as well as
appointments to senior positions. The basic
principles of expertise in these areas remain the
same for the past 70 years. Based on an analysis of
practice it is necessary to ascertain the lack of
efficacy of expert estimators in these areas. Rationale to what has been said is given in the
article
We should have trained staff to implement
innovative strategies. Therefore, it is natural, that a
lot of attention is paid to the staffing of the
management processes of innovative activity at the
enterprises of the rocket and space industry (RCP).
Training and human resources management in
accordance with current legislation should be based
on professional standards. The content of
professional standards should reflect the results of
forecasting scientific and technical progress in the
field, for example, in the RCP. It is necessary to
forecast trends in the use of information and
communication technologies in solving management
problems in the socio-economic sphere in order to
reflect these developments in professional standards.
The approach to solving this problem is the subject
of this article. What should the professional standard
be like in the RCP? The main problem lies in the
fact that although the standard is to be enacted in the
near future, its actual impact on the industry will
start in 5 - 10 years and will continue for at least
another 10 years, ie, until the 2030s. Professional
standards should come from "Education through
Science" concept, ie, knowledge, skills,
competences, provided by a professional standard,
should be based on modern scientific achievements.
For example, mathematical methods of research
should be based on a new paradigm in the area of
knowledge and statistical data analysis methods
must meet high statistical techniques. For the
development of professional standards in the field of
the RCP it is necessary to predict the characteristics
of the qualification (level of knowledge, skills and
experience) required the employee to carry out
professional activities in the RCP in 2020 - 2030.
Modern information and communication
technologies are creating a fundamentally new
situation in the organization of the economy. We
have an ability to manage the work of organizational
units, scattered throughout the world, from a single
center. The requirement of presence in the
workplace is mainly a relic of the past. We have a
lot of advantages in a remote work
We are developing a new organizational-economic
theory - solidary information economy, based on
the views of Aristotle. The name of this theory has
changed over time. Initially, we used the term
"nonformal information economy of the future",
and then began to use the term "solidary
information economy." In connection with
Biocosmology and neo-Aristotelism preferred is an
adequate term "functionalist organic information
economy. Further development of our theory is the
subject of this article. We begin with a brief review
of the economic views of Aristotle and the basic
ideas of solidary information economy. Then are
substantiated the withering away of the Family,
Private Property and the State. We discuss the
evolution of money - from gold coins to IOUs and
conventional units of circulation. We prove that the
market economy has remained in the XIX century
and the mainstream in modern economic science -
justification of insolvency of a market economy
and the need to move to a planned system of
economic management. We examine the impact of
ICT on economic activity. We develop the
approaches to decision-making in the functionalist
organic information economy. On the basis of
modern decision theory (especially expert
procedures) and information-communication
technologies earthlings can get rid of chrematistics
and will understand the term "economy" according
to Aristotle
The movements of electric locomotives create the interferences affecting the wired link. The creation of sufficiently technical effective and at the same time cost-effective means of protection from wireline interferences generated traction networks assumes as a preparatory phase to develop mathematical models of interference caused by electric locomotives. We have developed a probabilistic-statistical model of interferences caused by electric locomotives. The asymptotic distribution of the total interference is the distribution of the length of the two-dimensional random vector whose coordinates - independent normally distributed random variables with mean 0 and variance 1. Limit theorem is proved for the expectation of the total amplitude of the interferences. Monte-Carlo method is used to study the rate of convergence of the expectation of the total amplitude of the interferences to the limiting value. We used an algorithm of mixing developed by MacLaren-Marsaglia (M-algorithm). Five sets of amplitudes are analyzed, selected in accordance with the recommendations of experts in the field of traction AC networks. The most rapid convergence to the limit takes place in the case of equal amplitudes. It was found that the maximum possible average value of the amplitude of the random noise by 7.4% less than the previously used value, which promises a significant economic impact
When considering the ecological safety of industrial productions, territory, etc., we usually allocate the constant (permanent) risk and the accident (emergency) risk. Permanent risk is given by the used technology, and cannot be changed substantially. Emergency risks are associated with uncertainty, in contrast to the constant risks. Let in adopted mathematical model the uncertainty is probabilistic in nature, and the loss describes as one-dimensional random variable. The distribution function of the loss, as a rule, is not normal. We have discussed in detail the seven characteristics of accidental loss: expectation; median and, more generally, quantile; dispersion; standard deviation; coefficient of variation; a linear combination of the expectation and standard deviation; the expectation of the loss function. Risk management may be to minimize these characteristics and their combinations (in different variants of multicriteria optimization). For example, in the two-criteria formulation it is required to minimize the expectation of loss and the standard deviation. Two-criteria formulation one way or another is reduced to a one-criteria formulation. In addition to probabilistic methods of risk modeling, sometimes we consider methods for describing risk using by means of objects of non-numeric nature, in particular qualitative characteristics, concepts of the theory of fuzzy sets, interval mathematical and econometric models and other mathematical tools. The main problems of the theory and practice of ecological insurance have been discussed
The article is devoted to the discussion of the
organization of clinical-statistical studies and
experiments. We have considered the examples of
the application of statistical methods in scientific
medical research. Under the clinical-statistical
research we understand specially organized
collection and analysis of medical data about the
course of disease in patients, research of the
dynamics of objective and subjective indicators of
the state of reaction to these or other therapeutic
effects. We study one, two or more groups of
individuals (patients or healthy), conclusions are
drawn on the whole group, but not for each
individual patient. The purpose of research - to
transfer the conclusions reached for the sample to
the general population, i.e., clinical and statistical
study focused on the production of useful
recommendations concerning those patients who fall
into the field of view of doctors after the end of the
study. There are two main types of research -
prospective and retrospective. The first related to the
analysis of the last patients, the second - to
monitoring the course of their disease in the future.
We have considered typical mistakes in the
organization of clinical-statistical studies. When
planning a research, we usually distinguish the
experimental and control groups, which are identical
or similar in all respects except for the studied
factors (exposure). We discuss the various options
for blind methods and consider the application of
statistical models and methods in scientific medical
research. We have analyzed examples of confidence
estimation of proportion (probability) and the
homogeneity test of probabilities. For statistical
modeling we use the Poisson distribution in the case
of small probability. With its help, we analyze
statistical data on the opisthorchiasis
Classical economic textbooks assume that the effect of a particular company on the environment is infinitely small, in particular, that resources required for an industrial firm are available, and it's only the price to be paid for their involvement. For a large corporation, the situation is quite different. It converts the environment by means of its activity. Objectively existing resource limits are become important. The effects are increased when we consider the economy as a whole thing. Therefore, we have the obvious need for careful consideration of management problems in the real process of interaction between the economy, society and environment. This article is devoted to some approaches to this consideration. We have demonstrated that the economy is the servant of society. In all the economical developed countries in the twentieth century the role of the state in the economy has been increased in 3-5 times. We have discussed the influence of the modern ecological situation on the economy and management. In particular, we predict the end of private enterprise in the classical meaning. We examined the social-ecological aspects of management of the state and personnel of the firm. Discussion of Russian problems we begin with an analysis of the dynamics of the main economic and demographic indicators of Russia, including the total fertility rate in Russia. The system of scenarios of population projections for the period up to 2050 shows the inevitability of significant reduction in the Russian population (in the absence of intensive management actions). We describe two basic scenarios of solving socio-ecological conflicts
Improvement of the organizational structures can increase the efficiency of enterprises. Controlling of personnel in companies such as "Research Institute" is a tool to support personnel decisions; it contributes to the strategic goals and tactical objectives. This article describes the main types of organizational structures, their properties, sociometric research as a tool for management, the stages of implementation of model of controlling of personnel in human resource management system for companies such as "Research Institute". Controlling of personnel is in regulation of HR processes, benchmarking, monitoring the implementation of the goals, taking into account the costs of implementing improved management systems, etc. It aims to determine the quality, efficiency and optimality of specific mechanisms, technologies and methods for the implementation of the HR function. Objectively, the volume of realization of the HR function depends on the presence of a certain quantities of material, labor, financial and other resources, on the objectives of the enterprise at different stages of the life cycle, as well as the number and qualifications of personnel. The quality of realization of the HR function depends on the level of its top-management's understanding of the importance of human resource management in the enterprise, as well as of the skill level of middle management. Controlling of HR function allows us to create an information base for effective management decisions that can help us to optimize the system of personnel management in the circumstances of the market environment, which is a necessary basis for the successful development of enterprises working in the field of high technology products and services
Forecasting of scientific and technical progress is
necessary to make grounded management decisions.
In this article, we forecast the development of
information and communication technologies in
order to solve a particular but important issue of
design of professional standards in the aerospace
industry. We identify the factors affecting the
development of information and communication
(computer) technologies, with their help determine
the trends of development of these technologies over
the next two decades. The main trend - the
maximum cheaper production of computer (or
network) components, combined with an increase in
their capacity. One way to reduce the cost of
production is the "centralization" - combining
several components into one. The third trend - the
desire to reduce the size of computers. The size of a
future computer could be a device the size of a
pencil, a pin or button, as the system unit has a
negligible size, keyboard and display are virtual,
transfer any amount of information through a virtual
office online. The development of secure free
copying will lead to increased use of this free
software and technologies "rental program" over the
Internet. We predict an increase in reliability and
intensive programs while maintaining the general
principles of the interface. Revolutionary changes
are expected production (machines, sensors), and
household appliances