Name
Orlov Alexander Ivanovich
Scholastic degree
•
•
•
Academic rank
professor
Honorary rank
—
Organization, job position
Bauman Moscow State Technical University
Web site url
—
Articles count: 155
The general scheme of modern statistical science is
just like this. Mathematical Statistics is a part of
mathematics that studies the statistical structure (it
itself does not give recipes analysis of statistical
data, however, it is developing methods that are
useful for use in theoretical statistics). Theoretical
Statistics - the science dedicated to the models and
methods of analysis of concrete statistical data.
Applied Statistics (in the narrow sense) is devoted to
the statistical techniques of data collection and
processing (it includes the methodology of statistical
methods, the organization of sample surveys, the
development of statistical techniques, the creation
and use of statistical software). Applications of
statistical methods in concrete fields (in economics
and management - Econometrics, in biology -
Biometrics, in chemistry - Chemometrics, in
technical research - Technometric, in geology,
demography, sociology, medicine, history, etc.).
Often positions 2 and 3 together are called Applied
Statistics. Sometimes position 1 is called Theoretical
Statistics. These terminological differences are
related to the fact that the above-described
development of the considered scientific and applied
field not once, not completely and not always
adequately reflected in the minds of experts.
Meanwhile, there are still textbooks of appropriate
level of representation of the mid-twentieth century.
The article analyzes the post-war development of
the national statistics. We have identified five
"growth points": nonparametrics, robustness,
bootstrap, statistics of interval data, and statistics of
non-numeric data. We have discussed content,
development and the basic ideas of statistics of nonnumeric
data. We have given a number of
unresolved problems of theoretical and applied
statistics
We have given a critical analysis of statistical
models and methods for processing text information
in historical records to establish the times when
there were certain events, ie, to build science-based
chronology. There are three main kinds of sources
of knowledge of ancient history: ancient texts, the
remains of material culture and traditions. The
specific date of the extracted by archaeologists
objects in most cases can not be found. The group of
Academician A.T. Fomenko has developed and
applied new statistical methods for analysis of
historical texts (Chronicle), based on the intensive
use of computer technology. Two major scientific
results were: the majority of historical records that
we know now, are duplicated (in particular,
chronicles, describing the so-called "Ancient Rome"
and "Middle Ages", talking about the same events);
the known historical chronicles tell us about real
events, separated from the present time for not more
than 1000 years. It was found that chronicles
describing the history of "ancient times" and
"Middle Ages" and the chronicle of Chinese history
and the history of various European countries do not
talk about different, but about the same events. We
have the attempt of a new dating of historical events
and restoring the true history of human society
based on new data. From the standpoint of statistical
methods of historical records and images of their
fragments – they are special cases of non-numeric
objects of nature. Therefore, developed by the group
of A.T. Fomenko computer-statistical methods are
the part of non-numerical statistics. We have
considered some methods of statistical analysis of
chronicles applied by the group of A.T. Fomenko:
correlation method of maximums; dynasties method;
the method of attenuation frequency; questionnaire
method codes. New chronology allows us to
understand much of the battle of ideas in modern
science and mass consciousness. It becomes clear
the root cause of cautious attitude of the West
towards Russia
Forecasting of scientific and technical progress is
necessary to make grounded management decisions.
In this article, we forecast the development of
information and communication technologies in
order to solve a particular but important issue of
design of professional standards in the aerospace
industry. We identify the factors affecting the
development of information and communication
(computer) technologies, with their help determine
the trends of development of these technologies over
the next two decades. The main trend - the
maximum cheaper production of computer (or
network) components, combined with an increase in
their capacity. One way to reduce the cost of
production is the "centralization" - combining
several components into one. The third trend - the
desire to reduce the size of computers. The size of a
future computer could be a device the size of a
pencil, a pin or button, as the system unit has a
negligible size, keyboard and display are virtual,
transfer any amount of information through a virtual
office online. The development of secure free
copying will lead to increased use of this free
software and technologies "rental program" over the
Internet. We predict an increase in reliability and
intensive programs while maintaining the general
principles of the interface. Revolutionary changes
are expected production (machines, sensors), and
household appliances
The article analyzes the development of the theory
of statistical control (from the XVIII century to the
present). Prof. M.V. Ostrogradskii (1846) clearly
describes the practical needs (ie, arising from the
quality assurance of large quantities of bags of
flour or pieces of cloth), to meet whom he spent his
research. At the same time Simpson was among the
ideas of probability theory XVIII century.
Therefore prof. M.V. Ostrogradskii may be
regarded as the founder of the theory of statistical
process control (not only in our country but all over
the world). Limit theorems of probability theory
and mathematical statistics have provided a
number of asymptotic results in problems of
statistical quality control, offer based on these best
practices. However, we must find out how much
interest among specialists characteristics are
different from limit for finite sample sizes. Such
research for the synthesis algorithm control plan on
the basis of the limit average output level of defects
is made in this article, and for the synthesis
algorithm control plan on the basis of the
acceptance and the rejection levels of defects - not
yet (clarification of the conditions of applicability
of this algorithm - unsolved problem of applied
mathematics). We have briefly reviewed the
development of our researches on the statistical
control. Control units can be not only some units of
production, but also documents (with internal and
external audit), and standard units of air, water and
soil in the environmental monitoring. One of the
achievements can be regarded as the transfer of
statistical control of production for environmental
monitoring
Statistical methods are widely used in domestic
feasibility studies. However, for most managers,
economists and engineers, they are exotic. This is
because modern statistical methods are not taught in
the universities. We discuss the situation, focusing
on the statistical methods for economic and
feasibility studies, ie, econometrics. In the world of
science, econometrics has a rightful place. There are
scientific journals in econometrics, Nobel Prizes in
Economics are awarded to series of researches in
econometrics. The situation in the field of scientific
and practical work and especially the teaching of
econometrics in Russia is disadvantaged. Often,
individual particular constructions replace
econometrics in general, such as those related to
regression analysis. In econometrics we select three
types of scientific and applied activities:
development and study of methods of applied
statistics, taking into account the specifics of
economic data; development and study of
econometric models, in accordance with the specific
needs of economic science and practice; the use of
econometric methods for statistical analysis of
specific economic data. This article describes these
three types of scientific and applied activities. We
discuss the specificity of economic data. We show
the importance of economic non-numeric values. We
discuss the statistics of interval data - scientific
direction at the joint of metrology and statistics. We
give the representation of the econometric models.
Problems of application of econometric methods are
considered as an example of inflation. We discuss
the statistics and econometrics as the field of
scientific and practical activities. We have examined
econometric methods in practical and training
activities
Intuitively everyone understands that noise is a signal
in which there no information is, or which in practice
fails to reveal the information. More precisely, it is
clear that a certain sequence of elements (the number)
the more is the noise, the less information is contained
in the values of some elements on the values of others.
It is even stranger, that noone has suggested the way,
but even the idea of measuring the amount of information
in some fragments of signal of other fragments
and its use as a criterion for assessing the degree of
closeness of the signal to the noise. The authors propose
the asymptotic information criterion of the quality
of noise, and the method, technology and methodology
of its application in practice. As a method of application
of the asymptotic information criterion of noise
quality, we offer, in practice, the automated systemcognitive
analysis (ASC-analysis), and as a technology
and software tools of ASC-analysis we offer the universal
cognitive analytical system called "Eidos". As a
method, we propose a technique of creating applications
in the system, as well as their use for solving
problems of identification, prediction, decision making
and research the subject area by examining its model.
We present an illustrative numerical example showing
the ideas presented and demonstrating the efficiency of
the proposed asymptotic information criterion of the
quality of the noise, and the method, technology and
methodology of its application in practice
In the training courses on the theory of probability and
mathematical statistics there are various parametric
families of distributions of numerical random variables
considered. Namely, we have been studying the
families of normal distributions, log-normal
distributions, exponential distributions, gamma
distributions, Weibull-Gnedenko distributions, etc. All
of them depend on one, two or three parameters.
Therefore, for a complete description of the distribution
it is sufficient to know or estimate one, two or three
numbers. Parametric theory of mathematical statistics is
widely developed, where it is assumed that the
distribution of observations belong to one or another
parametric family of distributions. This tradition comes
from Karl Pearson, who in the early twentieth century
proposed the use of four parametric family of
distributions. The above families of distributions - are
the subsets of a four-parametric family of Pearson.
Unfortunately, parametric families exist only in the
minds of the authors of textbooks on probability theory
and mathematical statistics. In real life, they are not.
Therefore, modern applied statistics and econometrics
mainly use non-parametric methods, in which the
distribution of observations can have arbitrary form.
First, on an example of a normal distribution, we are
discussing the impossibility of practical use of
parametric families of distributions to describe specific
statistical data. We give the results of research of
metrologists and estimation of convergence in limit
theorems. Then we discuss how the parametric methods
can use for reject outlying observations. It is very
unstable the significance levels for a fixed rejection rule
and the parameter of the rejection rules for a fixed level
of significance. Consequently, the rejection of the
classic rules of mathematical statistics is not sciencebased
The actuality of ecological issues was realized about
50 years ago. The highlight of the ecological
movement to protect the environment has been, in
our estimation, the United Nations Conference on
Environment and Development (Rio de Janeiro,
1992), which adopted the concept of sustainable
development. After 1992 the interest in ecology of
broad masses was decreased slightly, although the
environmental problems are not only remained, but
appeared to a greater extent. However, now there is
a legal basis for their decisions. Particularly,
enterprises must have a certified environmental
management system; otherwise they will be unable
to compete in international markets. Awareness by
humanity of need for environmental protection has
led, in particular, to the deployment of scientific
research in the field of ecological safety studies.
Therefore, we have found that it is necessary and
useful to report about the research of our team on
this subject. Ecological security issues are highly
relevant to the energy sector, in particular for gas
enterprises. As an example of the new scientific
results we discuss the innovative approach to the
disposal of drilling waste. The basic idea - the use of
underground non-enveloped tanks in permafrost soil
for disposal of drilling waste. Permafrost is typically
a negative impact on economic development, but in
this situation it is the determining factor for a
positive role, enabling lower costs to ensure
ecological safety and, consequently, improve the
competitiveness of domestic enterprises in the
global gas market. This article is devoted to methods
of dumping drilling waste and the problems that
arise in their burial place. We discuss various
methods of waste disposal, their advantages and disadvantages, as well as the impact on the
environment
Sociology is one of the most important social
sciences. Mathematical and primarily statistical
methods are effective intellectual tools of
sociologists. Let us analyze the work of the author of
this article on the development of statistical methods
to meet the challenges of sociology. Then we give
the review of development of statistical methods in
Russian sociology for 45 years (1970-2015). The
basic scientific events of these years, first of all, were
formation of applied statistics and its basis - statistics
of the non-numerical data (in sociology of 70-90% of
variables have non-numerical nature). Over the last
30 years, the Russian sociology has been growing
rapidly in all quantitative parameters. Clearly, the
depth of investigation gives the use of advanced
scientific apparatus - methodology and methods of
data collection and analysis, mathematical models. In
our view, a fundamental breakthrough was made in
our country in the 1970s. It was then in the arsenal of
Russian sociologists appeared measurement theory
and fuzzy sets, mathematical methods of
classification and multidimensional scaling,
nonparametric statistics and statistics of non-numeric
data. In subsequent decades it has been a natural
development of scientific apparatus. The same
mathematical and statistical methods and models can
be successfully applied in various fields of science
and practice. Statistical methods and models are very
effective in sociological, socio-economic,
managerial, technical and feasibility studies,
medicine, history, in almost any industry and
application areas of knowledge. Within this field, the
main event of the last thirty five years - is becoming
a scientific and practical discipline "Applied
Statistics", dedicated to the development and
application of statistical methods and models. An
analysis of the dynamics of applied statistics leads to
the conclusion that in the XXI century the statistics
of non-numerical data is becoming a central area of
applied statistics, as it contains the most common
approaches and results
We should have trained staff to implement
innovative strategies. Therefore, it is natural, that a
lot of attention is paid to the staffing of the
management processes of innovative activity at the
enterprises of the rocket and space industry (RCP).
Training and human resources management in
accordance with current legislation should be based
on professional standards. The content of
professional standards should reflect the results of
forecasting scientific and technical progress in the
field, for example, in the RCP. It is necessary to
forecast trends in the use of information and
communication technologies in solving management
problems in the socio-economic sphere in order to
reflect these developments in professional standards.
The approach to solving this problem is the subject
of this article. What should the professional standard
be like in the RCP? The main problem lies in the
fact that although the standard is to be enacted in the
near future, its actual impact on the industry will
start in 5 - 10 years and will continue for at least
another 10 years, ie, until the 2030s. Professional
standards should come from "Education through
Science" concept, ie, knowledge, skills,
competences, provided by a professional standard,
should be based on modern scientific achievements.
For example, mathematical methods of research
should be based on a new paradigm in the area of
knowledge and statistical data analysis methods
must meet high statistical techniques. For the
development of professional standards in the field of
the RCP it is necessary to predict the characteristics
of the qualification (level of knowledge, skills and
experience) required the employee to carry out
professional activities in the RCP in 2020 - 2030.
Modern information and communication
technologies are creating a fundamentally new
situation in the organization of the economy. We
have an ability to manage the work of organizational
units, scattered throughout the world, from a single
center. The requirement of presence in the
workplace is mainly a relic of the past. We have a
lot of advantages in a remote work