#### Name

Orlov Alexander Ivanovich

#### Scholastic degree

•

•

•

#### Academic rank

professor

#### Honorary rank

â€”

#### Organization, job position

Bauman Moscow State Technical University

#### Web site url

â€”

## Articles count: 123

We analyze the probabilistic-statistical methods in the researches of Boris Vladimirovich Gnedenko â€“ the academician of Ukrainian Academy of Science, which are very important for the XXI century. We have also discussed the limit theorems of probability theory, mathematical statistics, reliability theory, statistical methods of quality control and queuing theory. We give some information about the main stages of scientific career of B.V. Gnedenko, his views on the history of mathematics and teaching

From a modern point of view we have discussed Kolmogorovâ€™s researches in the axiomatic approach to probability theory, the goodness-of-fit test of the empirical distribution with theoretical, properties of the median estimates as a distribution center, the effect of "swelling" of the correlation coefficient, the theory of averages, the statistical theory of crystallization of metals, the least squares method, the properties of sums of a random number of random variables, statistical control, unbiased estimates, axiomatic conclusion of logarithmic normal distribution in crushing, the methods of detecting differences in the weather-type experiments

The movements of electric locomotives create the interferences affecting the wired link. The creation of sufficiently technical effective and at the same time cost-effective means of protection from wireline interferences generated traction networks assumes as a preparatory phase to develop mathematical models of interference caused by electric locomotives. We have developed a probabilistic-statistical model of interferences caused by electric locomotives. The asymptotic distribution of the total interference is the distribution of the length of the two-dimensional random vector whose coordinates - independent normally distributed random variables with mean 0 and variance 1. Limit theorem is proved for the expectation of the total amplitude of the interferences. Monte-Carlo method is used to study the rate of convergence of the expectation of the total amplitude of the interferences to the limiting value. We used an algorithm of mixing developed by MacLaren-Marsaglia (M-algorithm). Five sets of amplitudes are analyzed, selected in accordance with the recommendations of experts in the field of traction AC networks. The most rapid convergence to the limit takes place in the case of equal amplitudes. It was found that the maximum possible average value of the amplitude of the random noise by 7.4% less than the previously used value, which promises a significant economic impact

The statistics of objects of non-numerical nature (statistics of non-numerical objects, non-numerical data statistics, non-numeric statistics) is the area of mathematical statistics, devoted to the analysis methods of non-numeric data. Basis of applying the results of mathematical statistics are probabilistic-statistical models of real phenomena and processes, the most important (and often only) which are models for obtaining data. The simplest example of a model for obtaining data is the model of the sample as a set of independent identically distributed random variables. In this article we have considered the basic probabilistic models for obtaining non-numeric data. Namely, the models of dichotomous data, results of paired comparisons, binary relations, ranks, the objects of general nature. We have discussed the various options of probabilistic models and their practical use. For example, the basic probabilistic model of dichotomous data - Bernoulli vector (Lucian) i.e. final sequence of independent Bernoulli trials, for which the probabilities of success may be different. The mathematical tools of solutions of various statistical problems associated with the Bernoulli vectors are useful for the analysis of random tolerances; random sets with independent elements; in processing the results of independent pairwise comparisons; statistical methods for analyzing the accuracy and stability of technological processes; in the analysis and synthesis of statistical quality control plans (for dichotomous characteristics); the processing of marketing and sociological questionnaires (with closed questions like "yes" - "no"); the processing of socio-psychological and medical data, in particular, the responses to psychological tests such as MMPI (used in particular in the problems of human resource management), and analysis of topographic maps (used for the analysis and prediction of the affected areas for technological disasters, distributing corrosion, propagation environmentally harmful pollutants, various diseases (including myocardial infarction), in other situations), etc.

We should have trained staff to implement
innovative strategies. Therefore, it is natural, that a
lot of attention is paid to the staffing of the
management processes of innovative activity at the
enterprises of the rocket and space industry (RCP).
Training and human resources management in
accordance with current legislation should be based
on professional standards. The content of
professional standards should reflect the results of
forecasting scientific and technical progress in the
field, for example, in the RCP. It is necessary to
forecast trends in the use of information and
communication technologies in solving management
problems in the socio-economic sphere in order to
reflect these developments in professional standards.
The approach to solving this problem is the subject
of this article. What should the professional standard
be like in the RCP? The main problem lies in the
fact that although the standard is to be enacted in the
near future, its actual impact on the industry will
start in 5 - 10 years and will continue for at least
another 10 years, ie, until the 2030s. Professional
standards should come from "Education through
Science" concept, ie, knowledge, skills,
competences, provided by a professional standard,
should be based on modern scientific achievements.
For example, mathematical methods of research
should be based on a new paradigm in the area of
knowledge and statistical data analysis methods
must meet high statistical techniques. For the
development of professional standards in the field of
the RCP it is necessary to predict the characteristics
of the qualification (level of knowledge, skills and
experience) required the employee to carry out
professional activities in the RCP in 2020 - 2030.
Modern information and communication
technologies are creating a fundamentally new
situation in the organization of the economy. We
have an ability to manage the work of organizational
units, scattered throughout the world, from a single
center. The requirement of presence in the
workplace is mainly a relic of the past. We have a
lot of advantages in a remote work

In the USSR higher attestation Commission from
1975 to the collapse of the USSR was subordinated
not to the Ministry of education and science, but to
the Council of Ministers of the USSR directly.
However, since then there is a steady trend of gradual
reduction of the status of the Commission. Today
it is not just included in the Ministry of education,
it is just one of the units of one of its structures:
the Rosobrnadzor. Reduced status of the HAC inevitably
leads to a decline in the status and in the adequacy
of scientific degrees assigned as well as scientific
ranks. This process of devaluation of traditional
academic degrees and titles assigned to the HAC,
has reached the point when a few years ago there
were abolished salary increments for them. Now,
instead of that, every university and research institutes
have developed their local, i.e. non-comparable
with each other scientometric methods of evaluation
of the results of scientific and teaching activities.
Despite the diversity of these techniques, there is a
common thing among all of them, which is the disproportionate
role of the h-index. The value of the
Hirsch index starts to play an important role in the
protection, when considering competitive cases for
positions, as well as in determining the monthly
rewards for the results of scientific and teaching
activities. By itself, this index is well founded, theoretically.
However, in connection with the practice
of its application in our conditions, in the collective
consciousness of the scientific community there was
a kind of mania, which the authors call the "Hirschmania".
This mania is characterized by elevated
unhealthy interest to the value of the Hirsch index,
as well as incorrect manipulation of its value, i.e.
inadequate artificial exaggeration of this value, as
well as a number of negative consequences of that
interest. In this study we have made an attempt to construct a quantitative measure for assessing the
extent of improper manipulation of the value of the
Hirsch index, and offered a science-based modification
of the h-index, insensitive (resistant) to the manipulation.
The article presents a technique for all
the numerical calculations, which is simple enough
for any author to use

In the statistical hypothesis testing, critical values
often point to a priori fixed (nominal) significance
levels. As such, typically researcher uses the values
of three numbers 0.01, 0.05, 0.1, to which may be
added a few levels: 0.001, 0.005, 0.02, and others.
However, for the statistics with discrete distribution
functions, which, in particular, include all
nonparametric statistical tests, the real significance
levels may be different from the nominal, differ at
times. Under the real significance level we refer to
the highest possible significance level of discrete
statistics, not exceeding a given nominal
significance level (ie, the transition to the next
highest possible value corresponding discrete
statistical significance level is greater than a
predetermined nominal). In the article, we have
discussed the difference between nominal and real
significance levels on the example of nonparametric
tests for the homogeneity of two independent
samples. We have also studied two-sample
Wilcoxon test, the criterion of van der Waerden,
Smirnov two-sample two-sided test, sign test, runs
test (Wolfowitz) and calculated the real significance
levels of the criteria for nominal significance level
of 0.05. The study of the power of these statistical
tests is accomplished by means of Monte Carlo
method. The main conclusion: the use of nominal
significance levels instead of real significance levels
for discrete statistics is inadmissible for small
sample sizes

We consider the nonparametric problem of reneval dependence, which is described by the sum of a linear trend and periodic function with a known period. We obtain the asymptotic distribution of the parameter estimates and the trend component. The methods of estimating the periodic component and designing in-terval forecast. In the model of the points of observa-tion, natural for applications, justified by the condi-tions of use. In particular, we prove an asymptotically unbiased estimate of the coefficient of the linear term

The requirements for the project design stages of creating rocket and space technology are specified. The algorithm of estimation the feasibility of such projects is proposed based on their innovation and investment components

We have considered the formation of the Russian
scientific school in the field of econometrics,
obtained its obtained scientific results, the
possibilities of their use in solving problems of the
economy, the organization of production and
controlling of industrial companies and
organizations, as well as in teaching. As
econometrics we consider a scientific and an
academic discipline devoted to the development and
application of statistical methods to study economic
phenomena and processes, in short, statistical
methods in economics. Therefore, we can say that a
lot of domestic books and articles, in particular, the
works by the author of this publication from the
beginning of the 70s, are the parts of econometrics.
However, in this article we consider only the works,
in the titles of which we can see the word of
"econometrics". In our country the term
"econometrics" has become popular since the mid
90s. However, many publications and training
courses are still developed in the western outdated
paradigm. They do not conform to the new paradigm
of mathematical methods of economics, the new
paradigm of applied statistics and mathematical
statistics, mathematical methods of research. Russian
science school in the field of econometrics operates
within the scientific school in the field of probability
theory and mathematical statistics based by A.N.
Kolmogorov. Russian science school is developed in
accordance with the new paradigm of mathematical
methods. It is necessary to examine the main results
of Russian scientific schools in the field of
econometrics. We present the information on the
institutional design of national scientific schools in
econometrics, in particular, on the activities of the
Institute of High Technologies statistics and
econometrics