Name
Yefanova Natalia Vladimirovna
Scholastic degree
—
Academic rank
associated professor
Honorary rank
—
Organization, job position
Kuban State Agrarian University
Web site url
—
Articles count: 19
Results of internal environment integrated production system research with the point of view of qualitative analysis and risk evaluation were casted in the article.
In particular, model and method of calculation of integral index of production vertical line risk and improved data-flow model of effectiveness assessment of IPS with an account of risk constituent on the stage of creation of material flow are described. Reasonability of presentation of prognostic meaning
of profit in the type of indistinct triangular number was substantiated.
The article describes the fuzzy-multiple approach and the block of fuzzy (interval) mathematical models developed by the authors for calculating the amounts of material and financial flows, prices for bread and economic efficiency in a technologically integrated bread production system
The article substantiates the necessity to use factors
that trigger development mechanisms and describe
risks at various stages of the organization's life cycle
in the process of developing organizational structures
for such large social and economic systems as
corporate integrated structures characterized by the
presence of diverse organizations in their structure. A
comparative analysis of approaches to the description
of the life cycle was conducted, as a result of which it
was determined that L. Greiner's model is incomplete
(it describes only the stages of development), and I.
Adizes' model contains a blurred system of factors.
To solve the problems, the model of I. Adizes was
chosen as the basic approach and the characteristics
of the stages of the life cycle of the organizations are
selected. To formalize the factors that trigger the
development mechanisms and describe the risks at
various stages of the life cycle of organizations, a
cognitive analysis and modeling apparatus was
chosen and a corresponding methodology was
developed. The implementation of the methodology
is represented by the example of the first stage of the
organization's life cycle ("Courtship"), which resulted
in the compilation of a list of factors, their mutual
influence on each other, the type of communication,
and the cognitive model. Analysis of the cognitive
model allowed us to determine the key factor that has
the greatest impact on the transition to the next stage
of development
In this article outcomes of economic-mathematical modeling of the processes, which are flowing past in manufacturing chains of the small agricultural business, are resulted. The structure of a developed complex of models of planning and production management in farms is featured. The Indistinct mathematical models substantiation efficiency use of credit funds is developed
This article is devoted to consideration of questions of
agro-industrial integration. Agro-industrial complex is
a difficult dynamic system, including different
branches of a national economy. In this work, the
scheme of agro-enterprise functioning is submitted.
The scheme was constructed with use of so-called
“black box” model. The agro-enterprise significantly
differs from the enterprises of other branches by a
number of signs of. It is connected with the fact that
agricultural production is characterized by high degree
of uncertainty. Tasks of the uncertainty analysis, and,
as a result, different risks of the agroenterprises are
actual. Development of the effective mechanism of
risk management is also an important task. In this
article, the features of risk classification in agroindustrial
complex, including the specific risks, are
considered. The agroenterprises actively use
integration mechanisms for decrease of possible
consequences of a risk event. There are vertical and
horizontal integration. Structures of the integrated
agro-industrial production systems, which construct
taking into account vertical and horizontal
communications, are considered in this article. The
most effective is vertically matrix integration in which
the diversification mechanism of business is
considered. The feasibility of the risk assessment with
due regard for integration communications is proved
The problem of the optimal distribution of production tasks is one of the important problems of effective planning of processes associated with production at the enterprise. However, the classical approach to solving this problem becomes of little use when the individual stages of the production process are performed sequentially and in the case when it is necessary to take into account the structural features of the technological processes of the enterprise. Purpose of work: to develop a methodology for minimizing costs in the distribution of production tasks, taking into account the structural features of the technological processes of the enterprise. We built a multicriteria discrete optimization model for the distribution of production tasks according to the structure of production elements. One of the methods based on the proposed model is proposed, which allows to identify groups consisting of four elements in the production structure of the enterprise. The model is built using a network design which are pre-fractal graphs. The use of pre-fractal graphs allows you to naturally represent the structure of production and technological links of the elements of the production system of large enterprises. The results of the work is the developed effective methodology for solving the problem of the network distribution of production tasks, taking into account the structural features of technological processes at the enterprise, the economic effect of which is to minimize resource costs. Based on the constructed model, we can develop automated means of monitoring and managing the production processes of a company
Model and method of calculation of integral index
of influence of external environment of integrated production system were considered and interaction
of given index with choice of optimal strategy
of business-system development was shown in the article. Results of approbation of worked out model and method were casted.
Principles of construction and stages of programming complex on analysis and risks assessment at the enterprises of agro-industrial complex, including design of general architecture of programming complex, logical structure of programming models, being the part of programming complex, physical structure of programming complex on the level of file system and algorithm of functioning of complex software are considered in the article.
QUANTITATIVE MODELS AND METHODS OF RISKS EVALUATION IN AGRO-INDUSTRIAL INTEGRATED PRODUCTION SYSTEMS
Results of researches on quantitative evaluation of agro-industrial integrated production systems (IPS) risks with the regard of influence of external and
internal media are described in this article.
Particularly, quantitative method of calculation of integrated risk indexes of unfavorable influence of external medium on integrated production systems; model of determination of IPS effectiveness on the base of worked out models of calculation of integrated risk indexes and an equipment of slipshod great numbers theory; improved model of IPS effectiveness evaluation with the regard of risk component part on the stage of material flow creation have been described.
In this article the model and a calculation procedure of
an integrated indicator of risk of the internal
environment of the integrated production system are
described. Then the steps of creation of triangular
fuzzy number for expected value of profit are given.
At creation of this fuzzy number the concept of an
indicator of risk of the internal environment of the
integrated production system was used. Further on the
basis of the developed model of internal risk the
interval model of efficiency of the integrated
production system is developed and described. In this
article the structure of a production chain of the
integrated production system of agroindustrial
complex was considered. In technologically complete
production chain, as a rule, allocate three stages – raw
materials production, storage and conversion, sale of
finished goods. Each subsequent stage depends from
previous stage, and at each stage various situations of
risk are shown. Also the process of risk identification
of the internal environment of the integrated
production system was considered in this article.
Process decomposition is executed, the description of subprocesses is given. For a risk assessment of the
internal environment it is necessary to know quantity
of production chains, and also to calculate value of risk
for each production chain on the enclosed algorithm.
Also in the article the principle of recognition and
interpretation of results of calculation of an integrated
indicator of risk of the internal environment of the
agro-industrial integrated production system on the
basis of Harrington's scale and standard indistinct 01
classificators is shown