Name
Yefanova Natalia Vladimirovna
Scholastic degree
—
Academic rank
associated professor
Honorary rank
—
Organization, job position
Kuban State Agrarian University
Web site url
—
Articles count: 19
The analysis and assessment of risk at the macrolevel
in this context is understood as assessment of extent
of influence of the external environment (macro
environment) on activity of the integrated production
system. In the article the model and the technique of
calculation of an integrated indicator of risk of an
adverse effect of the external environment of the
agro-industrial integrated production system is
offered. All stages of creation of the model which
include representation of basic risk factors of
macrolevel in the form of linguistic variables are
described, each of basic risk factors is a compound
linguistic variable. For obtaining total value of a
basic factor the matrix scheme of aggregation of
compound factors to basic level is used. The
equation of model of an integrated indicator of risk
of an adverse effect of the external environment on
the integrated production system is presented. The
principle of recognition and interpretation of result
on the basis of standard fuzzy 01-classificators is
shown. Also in this article the interrelation of an
integrated indicator with the choice of the strategy of
development for business system by definition of a
condition of the external environment is shown, and
depending on it the strategic scenario of development
of business system is offered
In this article the model and a calculation procedure of
an integrated indicator of risk of the internal
environment of the integrated production system are
described. Then the steps of creation of triangular
fuzzy number for expected value of profit are given.
At creation of this fuzzy number the concept of an
indicator of risk of the internal environment of the
integrated production system was used. Further on the
basis of the developed model of internal risk the
interval model of efficiency of the integrated
production system is developed and described. In this
article the structure of a production chain of the
integrated production system of agroindustrial
complex was considered. In technologically complete
production chain, as a rule, allocate three stages – raw
materials production, storage and conversion, sale of
finished goods. Each subsequent stage depends from
previous stage, and at each stage various situations of
risk are shown. Also the process of risk identification
of the internal environment of the integrated
production system was considered in this article.
Process decomposition is executed, the description of subprocesses is given. For a risk assessment of the
internal environment it is necessary to know quantity
of production chains, and also to calculate value of risk
for each production chain on the enclosed algorithm.
Also in the article the principle of recognition and
interpretation of results of calculation of an integrated
indicator of risk of the internal environment of the
agro-industrial integrated production system on the
basis of Harrington's scale and standard indistinct 01
classificators is shown
The article describes the process of developing the
two-level technique for assessment of the missed
benefit during the landing and cultivation of perennial
plantings. The technique is developed for the
enterprises where the cycle of production of raw
materials breaks into several periods until the first
harvest. The choice problem of the most suitable
grades for the landing is relevant for such enterprises.
The first level of the two-level technique assumes
assessment of qualitative and quantitative
characteristics of grades with use of such tools as the
theory of fuzzy sets and the decisions tree. The results
of the first level are entrance data for the second level
where there is final assessment of a grade and
determination of the missed benefit rather potentially
possible at the choice of the recommended grade. In
the article also designated the importance of the raw
materials stage for the technological chain. It is shown
that, being consecutive structure, the technological
chain strongly depends on the first stage – a stage of
raw materials production. Minimization of the risk
situations at the first stage promotes strengthening of
the general risk tolerance of a technological chain
The article substantiates the necessity to use factors
that trigger development mechanisms and describe
risks at various stages of the organization's life cycle
in the process of developing organizational structures
for such large social and economic systems as
corporate integrated structures characterized by the
presence of diverse organizations in their structure. A
comparative analysis of approaches to the description
of the life cycle was conducted, as a result of which it
was determined that L. Greiner's model is incomplete
(it describes only the stages of development), and I.
Adizes' model contains a blurred system of factors.
To solve the problems, the model of I. Adizes was
chosen as the basic approach and the characteristics
of the stages of the life cycle of the organizations are
selected. To formalize the factors that trigger the
development mechanisms and describe the risks at
various stages of the life cycle of organizations, a
cognitive analysis and modeling apparatus was
chosen and a corresponding methodology was
developed. The implementation of the methodology
is represented by the example of the first stage of the
organization's life cycle ("Courtship"), which resulted
in the compilation of a list of factors, their mutual
influence on each other, the type of communication,
and the cognitive model. Analysis of the cognitive
model allowed us to determine the key factor that has
the greatest impact on the transition to the next stage
of development
The problem of the optimal distribution of production tasks is one of the important problems of effective planning of processes associated with production at the enterprise. However, the classical approach to solving this problem becomes of little use when the individual stages of the production process are performed sequentially and in the case when it is necessary to take into account the structural features of the technological processes of the enterprise. Purpose of work: to develop a methodology for minimizing costs in the distribution of production tasks, taking into account the structural features of the technological processes of the enterprise. We built a multicriteria discrete optimization model for the distribution of production tasks according to the structure of production elements. One of the methods based on the proposed model is proposed, which allows to identify groups consisting of four elements in the production structure of the enterprise. The model is built using a network design which are pre-fractal graphs. The use of pre-fractal graphs allows you to naturally represent the structure of production and technological links of the elements of the production system of large enterprises. The results of the work is the developed effective methodology for solving the problem of the network distribution of production tasks, taking into account the structural features of technological processes at the enterprise, the economic effect of which is to minimize resource costs. Based on the constructed model, we can develop automated means of monitoring and managing the production processes of a company