Name
Yefanova Natalia Vladimirovna
Scholastic degree
—
Academic rank
associated professor
Honorary rank
—
Organization, job position
Kuban State Agrarian University
Web site url
—
Articles count: 19
This article is devoted to consideration of questions of
agro-industrial integration. Agro-industrial complex is
a difficult dynamic system, including different
branches of a national economy. In this work, the
scheme of agro-enterprise functioning is submitted.
The scheme was constructed with use of so-called
“black box” model. The agro-enterprise significantly
differs from the enterprises of other branches by a
number of signs of. It is connected with the fact that
agricultural production is characterized by high degree
of uncertainty. Tasks of the uncertainty analysis, and,
as a result, different risks of the agroenterprises are
actual. Development of the effective mechanism of
risk management is also an important task. In this
article, the features of risk classification in agroindustrial
complex, including the specific risks, are
considered. The agroenterprises actively use
integration mechanisms for decrease of possible
consequences of a risk event. There are vertical and
horizontal integration. Structures of the integrated
agro-industrial production systems, which construct
taking into account vertical and horizontal
communications, are considered in this article. The
most effective is vertically matrix integration in which
the diversification mechanism of business is
considered. The feasibility of the risk assessment with
due regard for integration communications is proved
In this article outcomes of economic-mathematical modeling of the processes, which are flowing past in manufacturing chains of the small agricultural business, are resulted. The structure of a developed complex of models of planning and production management in farms is featured. The Indistinct mathematical models substantiation efficiency use of credit funds is developed
The article substantiates the necessity to use factors
that trigger development mechanisms and describe
risks at various stages of the organization's life cycle
in the process of developing organizational structures
for such large social and economic systems as
corporate integrated structures characterized by the
presence of diverse organizations in their structure. A
comparative analysis of approaches to the description
of the life cycle was conducted, as a result of which it
was determined that L. Greiner's model is incomplete
(it describes only the stages of development), and I.
Adizes' model contains a blurred system of factors.
To solve the problems, the model of I. Adizes was
chosen as the basic approach and the characteristics
of the stages of the life cycle of the organizations are
selected. To formalize the factors that trigger the
development mechanisms and describe the risks at
various stages of the life cycle of organizations, a
cognitive analysis and modeling apparatus was
chosen and a corresponding methodology was
developed. The implementation of the methodology
is represented by the example of the first stage of the
organization's life cycle ("Courtship"), which resulted
in the compilation of a list of factors, their mutual
influence on each other, the type of communication,
and the cognitive model. Analysis of the cognitive
model allowed us to determine the key factor that has
the greatest impact on the transition to the next stage
of development
The article describes the fuzzy-multiple approach and the block of fuzzy (interval) mathematical models developed by the authors for calculating the amounts of material and financial flows, prices for bread and economic efficiency in a technologically integrated bread production system
Results of internal environment integrated production system research with the point of view of qualitative analysis and risk evaluation were casted in the article.
In particular, model and method of calculation of integral index of production vertical line risk and improved data-flow model of effectiveness assessment of IPS with an account of risk constituent on the stage of creation of material flow are described. Reasonability of presentation of prognostic meaning
of profit in the type of indistinct triangular number was substantiated.