Name
Lyndina Marina Igorevna
Scholastic degree
•
Academic rank
—
Honorary rank
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Organization, job position
Research Institute of Food Concentrates Industry and special food technology
Web site url
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Articles count: 2
When developing management solutions with the
aim of joint consideration and comparison of
various factors, partial removal of uncertainty is
widely used ratings. In the theory of decisionmaking
in almost the same sense, we use the terms
"composite index" or "integrated indicator". The
article is devoted to the mathematical theory of
ratings as tools for studying socio-economic
systems. We considered, primarily, linear ratings
which is a linear function from a single (private)
indicators (factors, criteria), constructed using the
coefficients of importance (weightiness,
importance). The study discusses the factors
affecting the magnitude of the ratings. Three groups
of causes affect the value of a line ranking: the ways
of measurement of individual indicators, the choice
of the set of indicators; the values of the coefficients
of importance. We considered binary ratings when
the rating takes two values. To compare the
proposed rankings we use a new indicator of the
quality of diagnostics and prognostic power.
Significantly, in many managerial situations,
significant differences between objects are identified
using any rating. According to the fundamental
results of stability theory, the same source data
should be processed in several ways. Matching
findings, obtained using multiple methods, likely
reflect the properties of reality. The difference is the
result of a subjective selection method. When using
the results of the comparison of objects according to
several indicators (criteria ratings), including in
dynamics, very useful is the selection of the Pareto
set. We discuss the examples of the application of
the decision theory, expert evaluations and rankings
when developing complex technical systems
We have allocated the basic sources of uncertainty in various industrial and economic situations. We have also considered the role and the tasks of forecasting in the management of industrial companies, particularly in the rocket and space industry. We
have discussed the methods of organizational and economic forecasting - statistical, expert, combined, including foresight and given some suggestions for improving the forecasting and planning mechanisms for practical use when creating space systems