Name
Nevecherya Artyom Pavlovich
Scholastic degree
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Academic rank
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Honorary rank
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Organization, job position
Kuban State University
Web site url
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Articles count: 3
In this article, there is a numerical method of solving
the problem of self-organization of the labor
resources. The problem deals with finding
probabilities of hiring and the layoffs of specialists
from the sectors of the labor market. A mathematical
model of labor resources dynamics is used to solve
this problem. The initial problem is incorrect,
because number of equations of the descriptive
system is less than number of unknown variables. A
special algorithm is designed for guaranteed finding
the normal solution in finite number of iterations.
The algorithm is separated into two key stages.
Initially, unconditional normal solution of the
problem is found by applying the modified method of
Gauss for underdetermined systems. Later, this
solution is projected in the subspace of permissible
values. After that, the normal solution of the problem
with consideration of non-negativity of the desired
values is being found by using the gradient projection
method. The proposed algorithm has been
successfully used to develop application in
programming environment C++. This application is
focused on solving of the problem of selforganization
of the labor resources. Comparative
analysis of speed of the application and add-ins MS
Excel "Solver" showed that the same problem is
solved much faster in the application designed by the
author than in a table processor MS Excel when
using the add-in "Solver". This demonstrates the high
efficiency of the proposed method
In this article we have proposed an intersectoral mathematical model of self-organization of the labor market. This model is the system of balance equations of the dynamics of the labor force. The model contains parameters that show where workers were employed in previous times. Therefore it is possible to monitor the dynamics of intersectoral labor force over a long period of time. It has been shown that the model allows to solve the problem of forecasting the number of employed and unemployed in the labor market under the assumption that the parameters of the probabilistic model are constant for a certain period. The use of the model is illustrated on the example in which the probabilities of hiring and firing of employees were calculated, as well as the probabilities that the employees in the analyzed period (2011 – 2012 years) leave the labor market. The forecast of the number of employed and unemployed at the end of the next period (2013) is based on the calculated probabilities. It has been demonstrated that the deviation of the predicted values from the statistical data is not significant, which witnesses about the efficiency of the forecast
In this article, we have proposed a forecast of labor
resources by sectors of the labor market of the Russian
Federation until 2018 inclusive. The probabilistic
parameters of the dynamics of labor resources were
calculated using the considered model (articles [1-4]).
Further, these probabilities were used to estimate and
parameterize the trends of employed and unemployed
(with a known last place of employment) specialists in
each industry. For each sector of the Russian economy,
the type of trend that best approximates the long-term
(more than three years) dynamics of labor resources in
this sector was selected. It is shown that the forecast
error for 1 year is less than 1% using the selected trend
models. Further, identified long-term trends were used
in forecasting. Based on the results of the forecast of
the number of people employed in the sectors of the
Russian economy, the sectors were divided into two
groups. The first group contains sectors with a
significant change in the number of employed in. The
second group contains sectors, changes in employed in
which were insignificant. At the end of the article, an
example of an analysis of two sectors from the first
group is given. Causes of changes in the dynamics of
labor resources in the researched sectors of the
economy were identified. Ones of the main sectors of
the economy were considered in this example:
"Manufacturing industries" and "Financial activities,
real estate transactions, leasing and provision of
services"