Scientific Journal of KubSAU

Polythematic online scientific journal
of Kuban State Agrarian University
ISSN 1990-4665
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Name

Kurnosov Sergey Andreyevich

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Academic rank

professor

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Kuban State Agrarian University
   

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Articles count: 13

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140 kb

COGNITIVE MODELS OF PREDICTION THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DIVERSIFIED CORPORATION

abstract 1221608003 issue 122 pp. 32 – 42 31.10.2016 ru 307
The application of classical forecasting methods applied to a diversified corporation faces some certain difficulties, due to its economic nature. Unlike other businesses, diversified corporations are characterized by multidimensional arrays of data with a high degree of distortion and fragmentation of information due to the cumulative effect of the incompleteness and distortion of accounting information from the enterprises in it. Under these conditions, the applied methods and tools must have high resolution and work effectively with large databases with incomplete information, ensure the correct common comparable quantitative processing of the heterogeneous nature of the factors measured in different units. It is therefore necessary to select or develop some methods that can work with complex poorly formalized tasks. This fact substantiates the relevance of the problem of developing models, methods and tools for solving the problem of forecasting the development of diversified corporations. This is the subject of this work, which makes it relevant. The work aims to: 1) analyze the forecasting methods to justify the choice of system-cognitive analysis as one of the effective methods for the prediction of semi-structured tasks; 2) to adapt and develop the method of systemic-cognitive analysis for forecasting of dynamics of development of the corporation subject to the scenario approach; 3) to develop predictive model scenarios of changes in basic economic indicators of development of the corporation and to assess their credibility; 4) determine the analytical form of the dependence between past and future scenarios of various economic indicators; 5) develop analytical models weighing predictable scenarios, taking into account all prediction results with positive levels of similarity, to increase the level of reliability of forecasts; 6) to develop a calculation procedure to assess the strength of influence on the corporation (sensitivity) of its member enterprises; 7) to finalize the software tools the ask analysis to the level of information technology, given its adaptation and development to predict actions in a diversified corporation
258 kb

EVALUATION OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF CREDIT FUNDS IN THE ASSOCIATED ENTERPRISES OF AN AGROINDUSTRIAL COMPLEX

abstract 1221608083 issue 122 pp. 1257 – 1273 31.10.2016 ru 180
The article presents results of the study to assess the effectiveness of credit funds in interacting agricultural (AES) and processing (PP) agricultural enterprises. The conducted studies are a continuation of the scientific work on the development of mathematical models of interaction of the enterprises of the AES and PP, are shown in the articles [1, 2, 3]. This article presents the authors’ developed set of models of management of credit funds of interacting enterprises of an agroindustrial complex. It includes mathematical models of economic efficiency of agricultural enterprises considering the use of loan funds, as well as the assessment of the maximum amount of interest rate of the loan and the minimum selling prices of units of finished agricultural products; a mathematical model of the economic efficiency of the processing plant taking into account credit obligations of the agricultural enterprise and a model for the calculation of the minimum selling prices of its finished products; a mathematical model of the economic efficiency of the combined entity with all its loans. We have proposed a model to calculate the minimum selling prices of its finished products
229 kb

RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT MULTICRITERIAL ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL MODELS COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENT TECHNOLOGY GROWING CROPS

abstract 1221608080 issue 122 pp. 1200 – 1215 31.10.2016 ru 219
Production and processing of grains formed in the national economic system of the country a number of cereals-governmental sectors, such as grain production, grain elevator industry, flour, cereals and mixed fodder production, which constitute the grain complex country. The significance and role of the grain as a commodity in the state economy can not be overestimated. This product, is totally liquid, which has a constant, steady demand at any time of the year, in any region. Ongoing measures to increase grain production and improve its implementation did not have a complex character, therefore, insignificant effect on the efficiency of the industry and the competitiveness of grain production. The shortagecovered by imports.According to the characteristics of management in agriculture, it should be emphasized that the absence of objective and timely information at all stages of production of the plant-breeding, and as a result, non-optimal choice of technology of cultivation of agricultural crops, might result in the fact that the cost of labor and material resources increases significantly, the company does not receive profits, and sometimes suffers losses. When selecting cultivation technology for agricultural crops, an agronomist has a database of more than a hundred times-personal of alternative technologies for each crop. It is up to the decision-maker (DMP) to find specific criteria to select the most suitable (for the owners and the climatic zone) technology of cultivating for the culture. These circumstances explain the relevance of in-depth research of economic and mathematical models and methods of analysis and evaluation of the economic efficiency of technologies of cultivation agricultural crops. The article deals with the process of developing multicriteria economic-mathematical model of a comprehensive assessment of technology of cultivation of agricultural crops.
297 kb

THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INTERVAL MODEL OF THE EFFICIENCY OF AN AGROINDUSTRIAL INTEGRATED PRODUCTION SYSTEM ON THE BASIS OF THE INTEGRATED INDICATOR OF RISK OF THE INTERNAL ENVIRONMENT

abstract 1231609100 issue 123 pp. 1472 – 1487 30.11.2016 ru 239
In this article the model and a calculation procedure of an integrated indicator of risk of the internal environment of the integrated production system are described. Then the steps of creation of triangular fuzzy number for expected value of profit are given. At creation of this fuzzy number the concept of an indicator of risk of the internal environment of the integrated production system was used. Further on the basis of the developed model of internal risk the interval model of efficiency of the integrated production system is developed and described. In this article the structure of a production chain of the integrated production system of agroindustrial complex was considered. In technologically complete production chain, as a rule, allocate three stages – raw materials production, storage and conversion, sale of finished goods. Each subsequent stage depends from previous stage, and at each stage various situations of risk are shown. Also the process of risk identification of the internal environment of the integrated production system was considered in this article. Process decomposition is executed, the description of subprocesses is given. For a risk assessment of the internal environment it is necessary to know quantity of production chains, and also to calculate value of risk for each production chain on the enclosed algorithm. Also in the article the principle of recognition and interpretation of results of calculation of an integrated indicator of risk of the internal environment of the agro-industrial integrated production system on the basis of Harrington's scale and standard indistinct 01 classificators is shown
233 kb

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE INTELLIGENT TECHNOLOGIES RESEARCH OF THE INFLUENCE OF ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ON VARIOUS ASPECTS OF LIFE QUALITY IN THE REGION

abstract 1221608001 issue 122 pp. 1 – 17 31.10.2016 ru 313
To increase the validity of conclusions about the impact of environment on quality of life we need to move from generalities to the application of quantitative modeling techniques. This requires the joint processing environmental databases and databases depicting various aspects of quality of life. These databases need to be handled not just together, but in a comparable form approach, technology and methodology; and we need to implement them in one software system. For the first time in the environmental studies it has been planned to be done with the application of the ASK- analysis and the system called "Eidos". In this work, we set the goals and the objectives of the application of the ASK-analysis to study the effect of environmental factors on the quality of life of the population of the region. The article reveals the urgency of this study; the requirements for the method of conducting the study, the choice of research method, the contents of the objectives of the study. The proposed work is at the edge of mathematical ecology and mathematical modeling of quality of life (which refers to mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics), resulting from expected synergies, consists in obtaining of new knowledge in these fields, that is relevant to both ecology and economy. This knowledge will make it more meaningful and justified for the application of environmental criteria and concepts in the economy
3036 kb

THE RATIONALE FOR SELECTING THE METHOD FOR THE RESEARCH OF THE INFLUENCE OF ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ON VARIOUS ASPECTS OF LIFE QUALITY IN THE REGION

abstract 1221608002 issue 122 pp. 18 – 31 31.10.2016 ru 436
To increase the validity of conclusions about the impact of the environment on the quality of life we need to move from generalities to the application of quantitative modeling techniques. This requires the joint processing environmental databases and databases depicting various aspects of quality of life. These databases are needed to be handled not just together, but in a comparable form approach, including technology and methodology, and to be implemented in one software system. For the first time in the environmental studies, it has been planned to be done with the application of the ASK-analysis and the system called "Eidos". Previously, the authors have set the goals and the objectives of the application of the ASK-analysis to study the effect of environmental factors on the quality of life of the population of the region. The article reveals the urgency of this study; the requirements for the method of conducting the study, the choice of a research method; as well as the contents of the objectives of the study. The proposed work is at the edge of mathematical ecology and mathematical modeling of quality of life (which refers to mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics), resulting from expected synergies, consists in obtaining of new knowledge in these fields that is relevant to both ecology and economy. This knowledge will make it more meaningful and justified for the application of environmental criteria and concepts in the economy. This work contains a description of the basic data sources for the study of the impact of environmental factors on various aspects of quality of life of the region's population, the source data for this study, the characteristics of the original data, substantiation of requirements to the method of research, choosing research methods appropriate to requirements; the development of steps to achieve the objectives of the study
3170 kb

THE RATIONALE FOR SELECTING THE METHOD OF FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DIVERSIFIED CORPORATION

abstract 1221608004 issue 122 pp. 43 – 58 31.10.2016 ru 209
Application of classical forecasting methods applied to a diversified corporation faces some certain difficulties, due to its economic nature. Unlike other businesses, diversified corporations are characterized by multidimensional arrays of data with a high degree of distortion and fragmentation of the information due to the cumulative effect of the incompleteness and distortion of accounting information from its enterprises. Under these conditions, the applied methods and tools must have high resolution and to work effectively with large databases with incomplete information, to ensure correct common comparable quantitative processing of the heterogeneous nature of the factors measured in different units. It is therefore necessary to select or develop some methods that can work with poorly formalized complex tasks. This fact substantiates the relevance of the problem of developing models, methods and tools for solving the problem of forecasting the development of diversified corporations. This article compares methods of forecasting and encourages using the ask analysis which has a good theoretical justification for the meaningful interpretation of a knowledge model based on information theory; high accuracy and independence of calculation results of the unit of measurement baseline data through the use of not the correlation matrix, as in statistical systems, and matrices of knowledge. A well-developed and available Toolkit of the ASK-analysis which is an intellectual system called "Eidos" (created by E. V. Lutsenko, 1994) allows, on the basis of fragmented, noisy source data of various nature (numeric, text) to create models of large dimension. The ASK-analysis and the system of "Eidos" have been widely and successfully used in economics, engineering, agriculture, sociology and other fields. These features of the ASK-analysis have led to the fact that it was chosen as the method of forecasting of dynamics of indicators of the corporation
325 kb

THE TECHNIQUE AND THE MODEL OF THE RISKS ASSESSMENT OF MACRO ENVIRONMENT OF THE AGROINDUSTRIAL INTEGRATED PRODUCTION SYSTEM ON THE BASIS OF THE INTEGRATED INDICATOR

abstract 1231609099 issue 123 pp. 1454 – 1471 30.11.2016 ru 237
The analysis and assessment of risk at the macrolevel in this context is understood as assessment of extent of influence of the external environment (macro environment) on activity of the integrated production system. In the article the model and the technique of calculation of an integrated indicator of risk of an adverse effect of the external environment of the agro-industrial integrated production system is offered. All stages of creation of the model which include representation of basic risk factors of macrolevel in the form of linguistic variables are described, each of basic risk factors is a compound linguistic variable. For obtaining total value of a basic factor the matrix scheme of aggregation of compound factors to basic level is used. The equation of model of an integrated indicator of risk of an adverse effect of the external environment on the integrated production system is presented. The principle of recognition and interpretation of result on the basis of standard fuzzy 01-classificators is shown. Also in this article the interrelation of an integrated indicator with the choice of the strategy of development for business system by definition of a condition of the external environment is shown, and depending on it the strategic scenario of development of business system is offered
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