Name
Loyko Valeriy Ivanovich
Scholastic degree
•
Academic rank
professor
Honorary rank
—
Organization, job position
Kuban State Agrarian University
Web site url
—
Articles count: 147
In this article the model and a calculation procedure of
an integrated indicator of risk of the internal
environment of the integrated production system are
described. Then the steps of creation of triangular
fuzzy number for expected value of profit are given.
At creation of this fuzzy number the concept of an
indicator of risk of the internal environment of the
integrated production system was used. Further on the
basis of the developed model of internal risk the
interval model of efficiency of the integrated
production system is developed and described. In this
article the structure of a production chain of the
integrated production system of agroindustrial
complex was considered. In technologically complete
production chain, as a rule, allocate three stages – raw
materials production, storage and conversion, sale of
finished goods. Each subsequent stage depends from
previous stage, and at each stage various situations of
risk are shown. Also the process of risk identification
of the internal environment of the integrated
production system was considered in this article.
Process decomposition is executed, the description of subprocesses is given. For a risk assessment of the
internal environment it is necessary to know quantity
of production chains, and also to calculate value of risk
for each production chain on the enclosed algorithm.
Also in the article the principle of recognition and
interpretation of results of calculation of an integrated
indicator of risk of the internal environment of the
agro-industrial integrated production system on the
basis of Harrington's scale and standard indistinct 01
classificators is shown
To increase the validity of conclusions about the impact of environment on quality of life we need to move from generalities to the application of quantitative modeling techniques. This requires the joint processing environmental databases and databases depicting various aspects of quality of life. These databases need to be handled not just together, but in a comparable form approach, technology and methodology; and we need to implement them in one software system. For the first time in the environmental studies it has been planned to be done with the application of the ASK- analysis and the system called "Eidos". In this work, we set the goals and the objectives of the application of the ASK-analysis to study the effect of environmental factors on the quality of life of the population of the region. The article reveals the urgency of this study; the requirements for the method of conducting the study, the choice of research method, the contents of the objectives of the study. The proposed work is at the edge of mathematical ecology and mathematical modeling of quality of life (which refers to mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics), resulting from expected synergies, consists in obtaining of new knowledge in these fields, that is relevant to both ecology and economy. This knowledge will make it more meaningful and justified for the application of environmental criteria and concepts in the economy
To increase the validity of conclusions about the impact of the environment on the quality of life we need to move from generalities to the application of quantitative modeling techniques. This requires the joint processing environmental databases and databases depicting various aspects of quality of life. These databases are needed to be handled not just together, but in a comparable form approach, including technology and methodology, and to be implemented in one software system. For the first time in the environmental studies, it has been planned to be done with the application of the ASK-analysis and the system called "Eidos". Previously, the authors have set the goals and the objectives of the application of the ASK-analysis to study the effect of environmental factors on the quality of life of the population of the region. The article reveals the urgency of this study; the requirements for the method of conducting the study, the choice of a research method; as well as the contents of the objectives of the study. The proposed work is at the edge of mathematical ecology and mathematical modeling of quality of life (which refers to mathematical and instrumental methods of Economics), resulting from expected synergies, consists in obtaining of new knowledge in these fields that is relevant to both ecology and economy. This knowledge will make it more meaningful and justified for the application of environmental criteria and concepts in the economy. This work contains a description of the basic data sources for the study of the impact of environmental factors on various aspects of quality of life of the region's population, the source data for this study, the characteristics of the original data, substantiation of requirements to the method of research, choosing research methods appropriate to requirements; the development of steps to achieve the objectives of the study
The application of classical forecasting methods applied to a diversified corporation faces some certain difficulties, due to its economic nature. Unlike other businesses, diversified corporations are characterized by multidimensional arrays of data with a high degree of distortion and fragmentation of information due to the cumulative effect of the incompleteness and distortion of accounting information from the enterprises in it. Under these conditions, the applied methods and tools must have high resolution and work effectively with large databases with incomplete information, ensure the correct common comparable quantitative processing of the heterogeneous nature of the factors measured in different units. It is therefore necessary to select or develop some methods that can work with complex poorly formalized tasks. This fact substantiates the relevance of the problem of developing models, methods and tools for solving the problem of forecasting the development of diversified corporations. This is the subject of this work, which makes it relevant. The work aims to: 1) analyze the forecasting methods to justify the choice of system-cognitive analysis as one of the effective methods for the prediction of semi-structured tasks; 2) to adapt and develop the method of systemic-cognitive analysis for forecasting of dynamics of development of the corporation subject to the scenario approach; 3) to develop predictive model scenarios of changes in basic economic indicators of development of the corporation and to assess their credibility; 4) determine the analytical form of the dependence between past and future scenarios of various economic indicators; 5) develop analytical models weighing predictable scenarios, taking into account all prediction results with positive levels of similarity, to increase the level of reliability of forecasts; 6) to develop a calculation procedure to assess the strength of influence on the corporation (sensitivity) of its member enterprises; 7) to finalize the software tools the ask analysis to the level of information technology, given its adaptation and development to predict actions in a diversified corporation
Application of classical forecasting methods applied to a diversified corporation faces some certain difficulties, due to its economic nature. Unlike other businesses, diversified corporations are characterized by multidimensional arrays of data with a high degree of distortion and fragmentation of the information due to the cumulative effect of the incompleteness and distortion of accounting information from its enterprises. Under these conditions, the applied methods and tools must have high resolution and to work effectively with large databases with incomplete information, to ensure correct common comparable quantitative processing of the heterogeneous nature of the factors measured in different units. It is therefore necessary to select or develop some methods that can work with poorly formalized complex tasks. This fact substantiates the relevance of the problem of developing models, methods and tools for solving the problem of forecasting the development of diversified corporations. This article compares methods of forecasting and encourages using the ask analysis which has a good theoretical justification for the meaningful interpretation of a knowledge model based on information theory; high accuracy and independence of calculation results of the unit of measurement baseline data through the use of not the correlation matrix, as in statistical systems, and matrices of knowledge. A well-developed and available Toolkit of the ASK-analysis which is an intellectual system called "Eidos" (created by E. V. Lutsenko, 1994) allows, on the basis of fragmented, noisy source data of various nature (numeric, text) to create models of large dimension. The ASK-analysis and the system of "Eidos" have been widely and successfully used in economics, engineering, agriculture, sociology and other fields. These features of the ASK-analysis have led to the fact that it was chosen as the method of forecasting of dynamics of indicators of the corporation
Production and processing of grains formed in the national economic system of the country a number of cereals-governmental sectors, such as grain production, grain elevator industry, flour, cereals and mixed fodder production, which constitute the grain complex country. The significance and role of the grain as a commodity in the state economy can not be overestimated. This product, is totally liquid, which has a constant, steady demand at any time of the year, in any region. Ongoing measures to increase grain production and improve its implementation did not have a complex character, therefore, insignificant effect on the efficiency of the industry and the competitiveness of grain production. The shortagecovered by imports.According to the characteristics of management in agriculture, it should be emphasized that the absence of objective and timely information at all stages of production of the plant-breeding, and as a result, non-optimal choice of technology of cultivation of agricultural crops, might result in the fact that the cost of labor and material resources increases significantly, the company does not receive profits, and sometimes suffers losses. When selecting cultivation technology for agricultural crops, an agronomist has a database of more than a hundred times-personal of alternative technologies for each crop. It is up to the decision-maker (DMP) to find specific criteria to select the most suitable (for the owners and the climatic zone) technology of cultivating for the culture. These circumstances explain the relevance of in-depth research of economic and mathematical models and methods of analysis and evaluation of the economic efficiency of technologies of cultivation agricultural crops. The article deals with the process of developing multicriteria economic-mathematical model of a comprehensive assessment of technology of cultivation of agricultural crops.
The article presents results of the study to assess the effectiveness of credit funds in interacting agricultural (AES) and processing (PP) agricultural enterprises. The conducted studies are a continuation of the scientific work on the development of mathematical models of interaction of the enterprises of the AES and PP, are shown in the articles [1, 2, 3]. This article presents the authors’ developed set of models of management of credit funds of interacting enterprises of an agroindustrial complex. It includes mathematical models of economic efficiency of agricultural enterprises considering the use of loan funds, as well as the assessment of the maximum amount of interest rate of the loan and the minimum selling prices of units of finished agricultural products; a mathematical model of the economic efficiency of the processing plant taking into account credit obligations of the agricultural enterprise and a model for the calculation of the minimum selling prices of its finished products; a mathematical model of the economic efficiency of the combined entity with all its loans. We have proposed a model to calculate the minimum selling prices of its finished products
In the article, we present the analysis and improvement
of existing methodologies for assessing the
intelligence factor, taking into account its use of the
Internet on a regular basis. Today, the use of the
Internet in our daily activities and tasks become
practice that is more common. The Internet has
become a popular and most frequently used means of
obtaining information quickly and in large volume.
The authors suggested the presence of the Internet and
its impact on the everyday use of psychological and
intellectual life of the people that can be recorded
because of user IQ scores. It is suggested here also gets
its development in the search for and analysis of
system models, allowing determining the numerical
values of the parameters. Specifically, it is proposed to
use a large variety of statistical data to clarify the
unknown parameters that determine the levels of
human intelligence, taking into account the impact of
the Internet. These statistics include information such
as the number of people with higher education, the
number of Internet users, the degree of the Internet penetration in society, the most typical tasks that use
the Internet users, and others. For the processing and
analysis of the test statistics in the work proposed to
use tools data mining, ie, data mining. We have also
considered the most typical approaches Data mining,
applied in similar research areas. We have analyzed
what specific principles and methods can best
approach to solving the problems of intelligence
assessment indicators. The result of the article was a
number of conclusions, in particular, the feasibility of
applying clustering to analyze data in the field. Also,
in certain cases, we provided the use of Kohonen
neural network in the vector quantization network
format. Methods: analysis of scientific literature and
online sources of information on the current level in
the field of IQ research; modeling; Methods
systematization (tabular calculations and compilation);
Experiment (real human test data). Methodological
bases of research: a systematic approach (considering
IQ in the form of a functional multi-component
dependencies), probabilistic and statistical approach
(provides guidance for constructing mathematical
models linking together IQ and the influence exerted
on it using the Internet, and to assess the reliability of a
computer program ) qualimetric approach (determines
the need multicriterion diagnostic influence of factors
on the level of intelligence)
The article presents the criteria for the effectiveness of
the scientific and pedagogical workers of higher skill
levels for the preparation of scientific and pedagogical
staff. It is known that the preparation of the teaching
staff (PhDs) - one of the most important activities of
higher education institutions; Moreover, when the state
accreditation of higher education institutions
compulsorily taken into account indicators that reflect
the impact of training candidates. Also, of course, that the training of the teaching staff (PhDs) - activities that
require both high levels of research and pedagogical
competence. This means that the results of scientific and
teaching staff higher qualification levels for the
preparation of the scientific staff - both indicators of
research and pedagogical competence; own training of
researchers - an area of "crossing" of scientific and
pedagogical activity. Unfortunately, the increase in the
number of scientific personnel being prepared does not
always mean quality growth. Often trained scientific
personnel (PhD) not only do not approach the level of
competence of its research (the results of research) to
the supervisor, and stopped to engage in scientific
activities after defending his doctoral dissertation (or
engaged at a low level). Therefore, the article authors
consider it expedient to propose indicators that reflect
not only the amount and timeliness of the research
training (PhD thesis defense sometimes occur many
years after graduate school), but also the productivity of
this activity. From the point of view of the authors, the
success of research training only can be considered
productive when prepared by the scientific supervisor
candidates of sciences are highly qualified scientific
personnel, ie conduct high-level research, the results of
which are recognized by the scientific community; the
same is true of the scientific advice (highly qualified
scientific workers - doctors). The practical significance
of the study results - in the possibility of objective
monitoring of research activity of scientific-pedagogical
personnel of higher qualification. Methodological bases
of research: a systematic, competence, sociological, and
metasystem qualimetric approaches. Methods:
modeling, methods of quality control, methods of set
theory, relations and graphs. Normative base of
research: the Federal Law "On Education" (2012), the
federal state educational standards of higher education
(2014, 2015). The work was performed as part of
research projects "Monitoring of the research activities
of educational institutions in the information society"
(â„– 16-03-00382) and "Modern information and
educational environment" (16-36-00048) with the
financial support of the Russian Humanitarian
Foundation from 17.03. 2016.
The purpose of the research is development of models
and methods of diagnostics of methodical competence
of a teacher. According to modern views, methodical
thinking is the key competence of teachers. Modern
experts consider the methodical competence of a
teacher as a personal and professional quality, which is
a fundamentally important factor in the success of the
professional activity of teachers, as well as a
subsystem of its professional competence. This is due
to the fact that in today's world, a high level of
knowledge of teachers of academic subjects and their
possessing of learnt basics of teaching methods can not
fully describe the level of professional competence of
the teacher. The authors have characterized the
functional components of methodical competence of
the teacher, its relationship with other personalprofessional
qualities (first - to the psychological and
educational, research and informational competence),
as well as its levels of formation. Forming a model of
methodical competence of the teacher, the authors
proceeded from the fact that a contemporary teacher
high demands: it must be ready to conduct independent
research, design-learning technologies, forecasting
results of training and education of students. As a
leading component of the methodical competence of
the teacher is his personal experience in
methodological activities and requirements of
methodical competence determined goals and
objectives of methodical activity, the process of the
present study, the formation of patterns of methodical
competence of the teacher preceded the refinement of
existing models methodical activity of scientific and
pedagogical staff of higher education institutions and
secondary vocational education institutions. The
proposed model of methodical competence of the
teacher - the scientific basis of a system of monitoring
of his personal and professional development, and
evaluation criteria and levels of her diagnosis - targets
system of vocational training and re-training of high
school teachers. Innovation policy is a model of
methodical competence of the teacher, and the main
model of the mechanism of its formation - methodical
activity (in close connection with other activities).
Research methods: analysis of scientific and
methodical literature and best practice methodological
activities in educational institutions, modeling,
methods of the theory of sets and relations, methods of
quality control, methods of multivariate analysis
systems. Methodological bases of research: a
systematic, qualimetric, competence and process
approaches. The work was performed as part of
research projects "Monitoring of the research activities
of educational institutions in the information society"
(â„– 16-03-00382) and "Modern information and
educational environment" (16-36-00048) with the
financial support of the Russian Humanitarian
Foundation from 17.03. 2016