Name
Galkin Georgy Aleksandrovich
Scholastic degree
•
Academic rank
—
Honorary rank
—
Organization, job position
Kuban State Agrarian University
Web site url
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Articles count: 1
The article presents the analysis of variation of daily
mean temperatures for the period 1977-2015. Clear
tendency for their increasing in pre-sowing and
especially in growing period is found. Heat supply of
separate months in pre-sowing period increased in the
row: April-February-January-December-March, and
that of growing period – in a row: May-Juny-JulySeptember-August.
Presence of slight correlation
(from -0,256 to 0,268) of temperatures in winter-spring
months with heat supply of coming spring summer
months is found. It is shown that correlation of rice
yield with temperatures of pre-sowing (DecemberApril)
and growing (May-September) periods varies
from weak to average (from 0,016 to 0,524) with a
tendency to increasing from winter months to summer
ones. Use of analog method made it possible to
estimate roughly the nature of t upcoming growing
season of rice in the current 2016: after the abnormally
warm winter one should expect the value of heat
supply of summer months to be close to normal. In the
physiological sense, such distribution of summer
temperatures is favorable for rice. Use of one of the
most effective forecast methods – smoothing the time
series (method of «moving decades») – made it
possible to evaluate medium-term rhythms of heat
supply of rice growing season and yields. It was found
that after an abnormally high level of heat supply of
the growing season, marked during last decade, we
should expect a decrease in spring and summer
temperatures - the next attack of the "cold" cycle. If
this hypothesis is confirmed, then up to 2020, and later
a natural tendency for decrease in rice yields, arising
from the adverse factors of temperature, will continue
which should also affect the economic efficiency of
the industry as a whole