Name
Belashova Anastasiya Nikolaevna
Scholastic degree
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Academic rank
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Honorary rank
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Organization, job position
Kuban State University
Web site url
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Articles count: 1
In this article, we have proposed a forecast of labor
resources by sectors of the labor market of the Russian
Federation until 2018 inclusive. The probabilistic
parameters of the dynamics of labor resources were
calculated using the considered model (articles [1-4]).
Further, these probabilities were used to estimate and
parameterize the trends of employed and unemployed
(with a known last place of employment) specialists in
each industry. For each sector of the Russian economy,
the type of trend that best approximates the long-term
(more than three years) dynamics of labor resources in
this sector was selected. It is shown that the forecast
error for 1 year is less than 1% using the selected trend
models. Further, identified long-term trends were used
in forecasting. Based on the results of the forecast of
the number of people employed in the sectors of the
Russian economy, the sectors were divided into two
groups. The first group contains sectors with a
significant change in the number of employed in. The
second group contains sectors, changes in employed in
which were insignificant. At the end of the article, an
example of an analysis of two sectors from the first
group is given. Causes of changes in the dynamics of
labor resources in the researched sectors of the
economy were identified. Ones of the main sectors of
the economy were considered in this example:
"Manufacturing industries" and "Financial activities,
real estate transactions, leasing and provision of
services"