Scientific Journal of KubSAU

Polythematic online scientific journal
of Kuban State Agrarian University
ISSN 1990-4665
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Name

Lunitsin Andrey Vladimirovich

Scholastic degree


Academic rank

Honorary rank

Organization, job position

Federal Research Center of Virology and Microbiology
   

Web site url

Email

lunicyn@mail.ru


Articles count: 1

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RISK ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF THE WORLD EPIZOOTIC SITUATION OF LUMPY SKIN DISEASE OF CATTLE FOR THE PERIOD UP TO 2030

abstract 1391805032 issue 139 pp. 83 – 98 31.05.2018 ru 89
The article represents the results of studying the spatial-dynamic factors and revealing the regularities of the global spread of Lumpy skin disease in cattle. The developed risk analysis and epizootological forecast provides the keeping up with a multi-year trend for the growth of epizootic tension in this disease for the period up to 2030. The highest probability of disease registration from 0.6 to 1.0 is predicted for the tropical agroecosystems of the African continent (enzootic zone) in 2018-2030. There is a real risk of disease in neighboring countries of Eurasia with the probability is less than 0.4. In the Russian Federation, outbreaks can occur in all federal districts of the country, but the highest probability of its occurrence is possible in agroecosystems of the subtropics of the North Caucasus and Southern Federal Districts of the country
.