Name
Orlov Alexander Ivanovich
Scholastic degree
•
•
•
Academic rank
professor
Honorary rank
—
Organization, job position
Bauman Moscow State Technical University
Web site url
—
Articles count: 155
System paradigm is discussed conformably to
functioning of controlling institution of a large-scale
agro-industrial system. Presently the systemacity
became the general platform of fundamental and
applied, scientific and practical elaborations and
projects. Now in the sphere of system researches
surge of interest in questions of classification is
observed. Apparently, it is connected with
accumulation of results of private researches in all
areas of this discipline and with inevitable
transdisciplinary crossings of their practical
applications. So, undoubted intervention of high
technologies to the agrarian sphere is observed. The
efficiency of this introduction, certainly, depends on
coordination of actions of developers of various
subject domains. On the basis of the objective
analysis it must be noted that in the arsenal of
managers, especially foreign ones, there is
practically no fundamentally new methods and tools
of controlling. So says the executive director of
Russian Association of Controllers prof. S. G. Falco.
However, promising mathematical and instrumental
methods of controlling actively developed in our
country. It is necessary to implement them. For
example, managers should be used advanced
mathematical and instrumental methods of
controlling. These methods are based on the modern
development of mathematics as a whole - on the
system interval fuzzy math. Considered methods are
developed in accordance with the new paradigm of
mathematical methods of research. It includes new
paradigms of applied statistics, mathematical
statistics, mathematical methods of economics,
methods of analysis of statistical and expert data in management and control. In the XXI century there
were more than 10 books issued, developed in
accordance with the new paradigm of mathematical
methods of research. The systems approach to
solving specific applications often requires going
beyond the economy. Very important are the
procedures for the introduction of innovative
methods and tools. In this article we consider the
above research results in their interconnection
Nonparametric estimates of the probability
distribution density in spaces of arbitrary nature are
one of the main tools of non-numerical statistics.
Their particular cases are considered - kernel density
estimates in spaces of arbitrary nature, histogram
estimations and Fix-Hodges-type estimates. The
purpose of this article is the completion of a series
of papers devoted to the mathematical study of the
asymptotic properties of various types of
nonparametric estimates of the probability
distribution density in spaces of general nature.
Thus, a mathematical foundation is applied to the
application of such estimates in non-numerical
statistics. We begin by considering the mean square
error of the kernel density estimate and, in order to
maximize the order of its decrease, the choice of the
kernel function and the sequence of the blur
indicators. The basic concepts are the circular
distribution function and the circular density. The
order of convergence in the general case is the same
as in estimating the density of a numerical random
variable, but the main conditions are imposed not on
the density of a random variable, but on the circular
density. Next, we consider other types of
nonparametric density estimates - histogram
estimates and Fix-Hodges-type estimates. Then we
study nonparametric regression estimates and their
application to solve discriminant analysis problems
in a general nature space
The article is devoted to discussion of modern views
on management decisions. We have released several
bulk textbooks on the theory of decision-making.
This article discusses several key aspects of this
theory: a comparison of approaches to decisionmaking,
the pitfalls of voting, and the methodology
of decision-making, management responsibility. We
have considered a simple example of a problem of
decision-making in the management of the
organization: selection a model of a new car to run
into a series. Criteria for making a decision, which
put forward by the four experts-theorists,
contradicted each other. The Board of Directors
decided to issue a vote. We have considered the
"reefs" of voting. In the production and realization
of administrative decisions we distinguish four
levels. The first and most important level, which
determine the success or failure of administrative
activity is methodological. We discuss the levels of
production and realization of administrative
decisions. We give some examples where
methodological errors lead to wrong management
decisions. For example, a call to "maximum profit at
the lowest cost" is quite common in the speeches
and orders of a general nature. However, it is
mistaken. Practice of development, adoption and
implementation of solutions is based on a few basic
concepts: Who makes the decisions? The procedure
for preparation of the solution (the regulations).
Objectives. Resources. The risks and uncertainties.
Criteria for estimating decisions. The manager has
his responsibility for the decisions taken. Volition of
manager - the basis of management
The problem of controlling a large-scale agroindustrial
system, which should be solved in the
process of organizing agricultural production, is
considered. It is shown, that the scientific and
methodological apparatus of the service subsystem
controlling such an object should be expanded in
comparison with ordinary enterprises of agroindustrial
production. The article considers a new
approach to the theory of management of large-scale
socio-economic systems, based on a solidary
information economy. Its main ideas are analyzed,
its use as a basic organizational and economic
theory instead of "economics" is justified.
According to the solidary information economy,
modern information technologies and decisionmaking
theory make it possible to build information
and communication system based on an "open
network society" designed to identify people's needs
and organize production in order to meet them.
Predecessors - V.M. Glushkov, Anthony Stafford
Beer, W. P. Cockshott, A. F. Cottrell and others.
The main content of the research is the forecasting
of the development of the future society and its
economy, the development of organizational and
economic methods and models designed to enhance
the effectiveness of management processes. As an
economic component of the state ideology of
Russia, we propose to use a solidary information
economy. The organizational and economic theory
of Russia's innovative development should be based
on a solidary information economy
Statistical methods are widely used in domestic
feasibility studies. However, for most managers,
economists and engineers, they are exotic. This is
due to the fact that modern statistical methods are
not taught in the universities. We discuss the
situation, focusing on the statistical methods for
economic and feasibility studies, ie, econometrics.
In the world of science, econometrics has a rightful
place. There are scientific journals in econometrics,
Nobel Prizes in Economics are given to series of
researches in econometrics. The situation in the field
of scientific and practical work and especially the
teaching of econometrics in Russia is disadvantaged.
Often, individual particular constructions replace
econometrics in general, such as those related to
regression analysis. The article is devoted to
econometrics as an academic discipline. Our course
begins with a discussion of the structure of modern
econometrics, the connections between applied
statistics and econometric methods. We consider
sample researches (analysis of surveys results), the
elements of econometrics numbers, and methods of
testing of statistical hypothesis about homogeneity.
We have given the concepts of regression analysis,
econometric classification methods, modern
measurement theory. The important places are
occupied by the statistics of non-numerical data
(including fuzzy sets and their links with random
sets) and the statistics of interval data. The problem
of the stability of statistical procedures with respect
to the tolerances of input data and model
prerequisites is discussed. The representations of the
econometric methods of expert research and quality
control, analysis and forecasting of time series,
econometrics of forecasting and risks are given
The founder of the economic theory is Aristotle.
The so-called "market economy" is a perversion of
Aristotle's views. We have to eliminate distortions.
What can replace the "market economy"? We are
developing a new organizational-economic theory -
solidary information economy, based on the views
of Aristotle. The name of this theory has changed
over time. Initially, we used the term "nonformal
information economy of the future", and then
began to use the term "solidary information
economy." In connection with Biocosmology and
neo-Aristotelism preferred is an adequate term
"functionalist organic information economy". This
article describes the main provisions of solidary
information economy, intended to replace the
market economy as a management tool. The main
problems are discussed, the solution of which is
devoted to research related to the considered basic
organizational and economic theory. We discuss
Aristotle's positions, on which the economic theory
is based, in particular, solidary information
economy. We prove that the market economy has
remained in the XIX century and the mainstream in
modern economic science - justification of
insolvency of a market economy and the need to
move to a planned system of economic
management. We examine the impact of ICT on
economic activity. We develop the approaches to
decision-making in the solidary information
economy. On the basis of modern decision theory
(especially expert procedures) and informationcommunication
technologies people can get rid of
chrematistics and will understand the term of
"economy" according to Aristotle
In accordance with the Presidential Decree of 21
August 2012 â„– 1199 one of the 11 integrated
indicators of the activity of executive authorities is
the measure "real disposable income of the
population". For its calculation it is necessary to
measure the level of consumer prices. The article
presents the minimum consumer basket of
physiologically essential food products, designed in
1993 by the Institute of High Statistical
Technologies and Econometrics (IHSTE) based on
the initial data of the Institute of Nutrition of the
Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, and the
results of measuring the cost of the consumer basket
IHSTE and inflation index in 24 years (1993 -
2017). We discuss the application of the developed
tools in Controlling of the level of consumer prices
and living wage. According to M. Orshansky, living
wage can be estimated by multiplying the cost of the
minimum food basket by a factor which is equal to
the quotient of all costs to the costs of food costs for
a poor family. This work is aimed at the elimination
of the monopoly of Rosstat in the calculation of
indices of inflation, the living wage and the real
disposable income of the population. The methods
of the measurement and the use of inflation
constitute an important part of training courses in
econometrics, which are taught in the context of the
scientific-educational complex "Engineering
Business and Management" of the Baumann
Moscow State Technical University. Nobel Laureate
in Economics Vasiliy Leontiev thought that only 1%
of economists analyze the newly collected data, 30%
use the data contained in the publications of
predecessors, and the rest did not turn in their
arguments to the real world. This work belongs to
the 1% of publications (which analyzes the newly
collected data), about which Vasiliy Leontiev wrote
The term "methodology" is understood differently. Methodology - the doctrine of the organization. Methodology (from the "method" and "logy") - the doctrine of structure, logical organization, methods and means of action. Methodology - the system of principles and methods of organization and construction of theoretical and practical activities, as well as teaching on this system. From these definitions it follows that the methodology - is an intellectual base rod defining approach to specific activities to management decisions. The methodology, which adheres to the manager, lies at the heart of its activities, determines its success or failure, manifested in the consequences of decisions. We give some examples of methodological errors which lead to wrong management decisions. So, the person who seriously requires providing "maximum profit at minimum cost" should be classified into one of two classes, which can be briefly described as "fools" and "liars". Profit must not be the sole purpose of business. The following section will discuss the methodology in place of conducting various scientific economic and technical studies. A natural continuation of the topic - the wording of some of the methodological problems using mathematical methods
The article is devoted to the discussion of the
organization of clinical-statistical studies and
experiments. We have considered the examples of
the application of statistical methods in scientific
medical research. Under the clinical-statistical
research we understand specially organized
collection and analysis of medical data about the
course of disease in patients, research of the
dynamics of objective and subjective indicators of
the state of reaction to these or other therapeutic
effects. We study one, two or more groups of
individuals (patients or healthy), conclusions are
drawn on the whole group, but not for each
individual patient. The purpose of research - to
transfer the conclusions reached for the sample to
the general population, i.e., clinical and statistical
study focused on the production of useful
recommendations concerning those patients who fall
into the field of view of doctors after the end of the
study. There are two main types of research -
prospective and retrospective. The first related to the
analysis of the last patients, the second - to
monitoring the course of their disease in the future.
We have considered typical mistakes in the
organization of clinical-statistical studies. When
planning a research, we usually distinguish the
experimental and control groups, which are identical
or similar in all respects except for the studied
factors (exposure). We discuss the various options
for blind methods and consider the application of
statistical models and methods in scientific medical
research. We have analyzed examples of confidence
estimation of proportion (probability) and the
homogeneity test of probabilities. For statistical
modeling we use the Poisson distribution in the case
of small probability. With its help, we analyze
statistical data on the opisthorchiasis
We consider the methods for estimation of the
effectiveness and quality of the scientific activities
of the researcher, of the organization, of the
magazine. Performance indicators of scientific
activity are used as an important part in the
estimation of higher education institutions, the
innovative capacity of enterprises, etc. To estimate
the effectiveness of scientific activity is natural to
use intellectual tools which are well-established in
other subject areas. This will include, in particular,
the balanced scorecard, based on key performance
indicators (hence the title of this article), as well as
controlling, primarily controlling of research
activities. There are two more developed and
widely used types of tools for estimation the
effectiveness of the scientific activity - the
scientometric indicators and the expert estimators.
Their critical analysis is the subject of this article.
The goal - to choose the most effective tool.
Different versions of manipulating of values of
scientometric indicators in the Russian Federation,
in our estimation, are still relatively rare. Perhaps
this is due to the relatively short period of their use
in the management of science. Since an indicator
such as citation index (the number of citations of
publications) of researcher, allows estimating its
contribution to science, the use of this
scientometric indicator for the management of
science is justified. At the same time, the number
of publications and especially h-index is not
possible to objectively estimate the effectiveness of
research activities, particularly in view of the
properties of the real bibliometric databases. Expert
procedures have several disadvantages. In this
article we discuss the real effectiveness of expert
procedures in the areas of their application, as
conferring academic degrees and elections to the
National Academy of Sciences (primarily in the
Russian Academy of Sciences), as well as
appointments to senior positions. The basic
principles of expertise in these areas remain the
same for the past 70 years. Based on an analysis of
practice it is necessary to ascertain the lack of
efficacy of expert estimators in these areas. Rationale to what has been said is given in the
article