#### Name

Orlov Alexander Ivanovich

#### Scholastic degree

•

•

•

#### Academic rank

professor

#### Honorary rank

â€”

#### Organization, job position

Bauman Moscow State Technical University

#### Web site url

â€”

## Articles count: 150

The article begins with the letter of the chief
engineer of chemical plant near Moscow. He
requests to analyze of data by means of modern
statistical methods and give an opinion on the
presence (or absence) of the relationship between
the two methods of determining the viscosity of the
mastic. For each of the batches of mastic It was
presented two numbers - the viscosity measurement
results of the two methods. These numbers form two
paired samples. We want to install, give whether
two specific methods similar results. The true values
of viscosity in different batches are not equal. Their
difference is not allows us to combine the results of
the first measurement method in first sample, the
results of the second method - in the second sample,
as we can do in the case of testing the homogeneity
of two independent samples. For solutions to this
problem we discuss four statistical criterions, based
on a study of the differences between corresponding
values in two paired samples. We test the hypothesis
of equality 0 of median of these differences (sign
test) and of equality 0 of the mathematical
expectation of these differences. Hypothesis of
testing of equality of the distribution functions of
two paired samples is reduced to the hypothesis of
symmetry of the distribution function of these
differences with respect to 0. In the alternative of the
shift is proposed to use the Wilcoxon signed rank
criterion. In the total alternative is proposed to use
criterion of the omega-square type which is
developed by the author of this article

For strategic and operational management tasks in the aerospace industry we use a variety of organizational-economic models and methods. Their set is called an organizational-economic support. In this article we discuss the approaches to the development of adequate organizational-economic support in the aerospace industry. In particular, we consider the problems of estimation of the effectiveness and management of innovation-investment projects to create aviation and space technology

Intuitively everyone understands that noise is a signal
in which there no information is, or which in practice
fails to reveal the information. More precisely, it is
clear that a certain sequence of elements (the number)
the more is the noise, the less information is contained
in the values of some elements on the values of others.
It is even stranger, that noone has suggested the way,
but even the idea of measuring the amount of information
in some fragments of signal of other fragments
and its use as a criterion for assessing the degree of
closeness of the signal to the noise. The authors propose
the asymptotic information criterion of the quality
of noise, and the method, technology and methodology
of its application in practice. As a method of application
of the asymptotic information criterion of noise
quality, we offer, in practice, the automated systemcognitive
analysis (ASC-analysis), and as a technology
and software tools of ASC-analysis we offer the universal
cognitive analytical system called "Eidos". As a
method, we propose a technique of creating applications
in the system, as well as their use for solving
problems of identification, prediction, decision making
and research the subject area by examining its model.
We present an illustrative numerical example showing
the ideas presented and demonstrating the efficiency of
the proposed asymptotic information criterion of the
quality of the noise, and the method, technology and
methodology of its application in practice

The concept of risk-controlling is based on the general theory of risk. The current state of risk-management in our country is reviewed. We also discuss the research on risk-controlling made in the BMSTU Laboratory of economic-mathematical methods in controlling

The article is devoted to discussion of modern views
on management decisions. We have released several
bulk textbooks on the theory of decision-making.
This article discusses several key aspects of this
theory: a comparison of approaches to decisionmaking,
the pitfalls of voting, and the methodology
of decision-making, management responsibility. We
have considered a simple example of a problem of
decision-making in the management of the
organization: selection a model of a new car to run
into a series. Criteria for making a decision, which
put forward by the four experts-theorists,
contradicted each other. The Board of Directors
decided to issue a vote. We have considered the
"reefs" of voting. In the production and realization
of administrative decisions we distinguish four
levels. The first and most important level, which
determine the success or failure of administrative
activity is methodological. We discuss the levels of
production and realization of administrative
decisions. We give some examples where
methodological errors lead to wrong management
decisions. For example, a call to "maximum profit at
the lowest cost" is quite common in the speeches
and orders of a general nature. However, it is
mistaken. Practice of development, adoption and
implementation of solutions is based on a few basic
concepts: Who makes the decisions? The procedure
for preparation of the solution (the regulations).
Objectives. Resources. The risks and uncertainties.
Criteria for estimating decisions. The manager has
his responsibility for the decisions taken. Volition of
manager - the basis of management

In modern conditions of quantitative and qualitative
degradation of science in general and economics in
particular, especially in our country, the scientific
direction of "Controlling" stands out not only for its
activity, but also the rapid intensive and extensive
growth. This work is the summary of the main
publications of scientific results on controlling
obtained at the Laboratory of economicmathematical
methods in controlling of Scientific
and Educational Center "Controlling and
management innovations" of Bauman Moscow State
Technical University. We discuss the concept of
"method", "tool", "mechanism", "algorithm" in
relation to the Controlling. Adequate use of these
terms is necessary for the formulation of sound
scientific results, and to provide their perception of
the scientific community. Innovations in the field of
management in industry and other sectors of the
economy based, in particular, on the use of new
adequate organizational and economic methods.
Controlling in this area - it is the development of
relevant management procedures used and the newly
established (implanted) organizational and economic
methods to the task. Development, systematization
and application of modern mathematical tools of
controlling are the main theme of our work. We
have considered the problems of controlling new
areas - controlling risks, quality controlling,
controlling organizational and economic support for
control tasks in the aerospace industry, controlling
research activities. We have also obtained new
scientific results in controlling personnel and
ecological safety controlling

On the basis of a new paradigm of applied mathematical statistics, data analysis and economic-mathematical methods are identified; we have also discussed five topical areas in which modern applied statistics is developing as well as the other statistical methods, i.e. five "growth points" â€“ nonparametric statistics, robustness, computer-statistical methods, statistics of interval data, statistics of non-numeric data

Many procedures of applied mathematical statistics
are based on the solution of extreme problems. As
examples it is enough to name methods of least
squares, maximum likelihood, minimal contrast,
main components. In accordance with the new
paradigm of applied mathematical statistics, the
central part of this scientific and practical discipline
is the statistics of non-numerical data (it is also
called the statistics of objects of non-numerical
nature or non-numeric statistics) in which the
empirical and theoretical averages are determined by
solving extreme problems. As shown in this paper,
the laws of large numbers are valid, according to
which empirical averages approach the theoretical
ones with increasing sample size. Of great
importance are limit theorems describing the
asymptotic behavior of solutions of extremal
statistical problems. For example, in the method of
least squares, selective estimates of the parameters
of the dependence approach the theoretical values,
the maximum likelihood estimates tend to the
estimated parameters, etc. It is quite natural to seek
to study the asymptotic behavior of solutions of
extremal statistical problems in the general case.
The corresponding results can be used in various
special cases. This is the theoretical and practical
use of the limiting results obtained under the
weakest assumptions. The present article is devoted
to a series of limit theorems concerning the
asymptotics of solutions of extremal statistical
problems in the most general formulations. Along
with the results of probability theory, the apparatus
of general topology is used. The main differences
between the results of this article and numerous
studies on related topics are: we consider spaces of a
general nature; the behavior of solutions is studied
for extremal statistical problems of general form; it
is possible to weaken ordinary requirements of
bicompactness type by introducing conditions of the
type of asymptotic uniform divisibility

We have proposed the method for testing of independence of two alternative variables on the basis of statistics of non-numeric data. The method is aimed at application in problems of statistical quality
control. Testing of independence is based on set of small samples, i.e., in the Kolmogorovâ€™s asymptotics, when the number of unknown
parameters of the distribution increases in proportion to the data size

The relationship of Mathematical Statistics (wider -
Mathematical methods of research) and history is
multifaceted. In our opinion, the history of
mathematical statistics is an integral part of this
mathematical discipline. We have given a review of
our works on the history of statistical methods. The
role of mathematical statistics for the history is very
important. In this article, we restrict ourselves to the
questions of chronology. For centuries, the
chronology is considered as a part of applied
mathematics. The main problem is that the whole
"common" concept of the Russian and the World
history as a whole presented in textbooks was faked
by the opponents of Russia after the collapse of the
global Empire (Russian kingdom) in the early 17th
century - 400 years ago. The stories about historical
events are the information weapon. It was used by
the new rulers to suppress the resistance of the
vanquished. A new mathematical and statistical
chronology of general and Russian history, which
was built by a scientific team led by Academician
Fomenko, has been helpful for the discussion about
the current economic and political problems of
relations between Russia and the West in the XXI
century. In our opinion, the new chronology of the
World and Russian history should be one of the
foundations of state-patriotic ideology and deriving
practical solutions. The purpose of this article is to
give the initial idea of the new chronology from this
point of view