Name
Tatevosyan Sergey Olegovich
Scholastic degree
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Academic rank
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Honorary rank
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Organization, job position
Kuban State Agrarian University
Web site url
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Articles count: 1
In the context of the objective existence of risk and
economic, human and other losses related with it, there
is a need in a specific mechanism, which would allow
the best way to predict the damage caused by the
emergency. These risk management tools in
emergency situations are monitoring and forecasting.
In this research work, time series are used as a signal;
they contain information about the number of fires in
the Karachayevo-Cherkessia in the period of 1983-
2014. In solving the problem, the authors applied
wavelet tools for data cleaning from noise, anomalies
that have provided quality model building reliable
forecast - possible number of fires in one quarter
ahead. This example shows that for the construction of
this forecast there is no need for a rigorous
mathematical model specification, which is especially
valuable in the analysis of poorly formalized
processes. We have noted that most of the tasks in
emergencies fall into this category of processes