Scientific Journal of KubSAU

Polythematic online scientific journal
of Kuban State Agrarian University
ISSN 1990-4665
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267 kb

PROBABILITY MODELS FOR OBTAINING NON-NUMERICAL DATA

abstract 1051501003 issue 105 pp. 39 – 66 30.01.2015 ru 1001
The statistics of objects of non-numerical nature (statistics of non-numerical objects, non-numerical data statistics, non-numeric statistics) is the area of mathematical statistics, devoted to the analysis methods of non-numeric data. Basis of applying the results of mathematical statistics are probabilistic-statistical models of real phenomena and processes, the most important (and often only) which are models for obtaining data. The simplest example of a model for obtaining data is the model of the sample as a set of independent identically distributed random variables. In this article we have considered the basic probabilistic models for obtaining non-numeric data. Namely, the models of dichotomous data, results of paired comparisons, binary relations, ranks, the objects of general nature. We have discussed the various options of probabilistic models and their practical use. For example, the basic probabilistic model of dichotomous data - Bernoulli vector (Lucian) i.e. final sequence of independent Bernoulli trials, for which the probabilities of success may be different. The mathematical tools of solutions of various statistical problems associated with the Bernoulli vectors are useful for the analysis of random tolerances; random sets with independent elements; in processing the results of independent pairwise comparisons; statistical methods for analyzing the accuracy and stability of technological processes; in the analysis and synthesis of statistical quality control plans (for dichotomous characteristics); the processing of marketing and sociological questionnaires (with closed questions like "yes" - "no"); the processing of socio-psychological and medical data, in particular, the responses to psychological tests such as MMPI (used in particular in the problems of human resource management), and analysis of topographic maps (used for the analysis and prediction of the affected areas for technological disasters, distributing corrosion, propagation environmentally harmful pollutants, various diseases (including myocardial infarction), in other situations), etc.
2215 kb

PREDICTING GLOBAL CLIMATIC ANOMALIES SUCH AS EL NINO AND LA NINA BY USING ASC-ANALYSIS WITH AIDOS-X ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE SYSTEM

abstract 1051501007 issue 105 pp. 128 – 160 30.01.2015 ru 873
A number of information and semantic models has been developed using artificial intelligence system AIDOS-X. The similarity between the movement of the elements of the lunar orbit and the dynamics of the instantaneous pole of the Earth, as well as violations of the global atmospheric circulation and water, leading to the emergence of episodes of El Niño and La Niña are justified. We have explored a possibility of semantic information models equatorial regions of the Pacific for prediction of global climatic disturbances in the tropical latitudes. We made a forecast about breaking of global ocean circulation, or the occurrence of El Niño episode of the classical type in 2015
426 kb

RIEMANNIAN GEOMETRY AND UNIFIED FIELD THEORY IN 6D

abstract 1051501008 issue 105 pp. 161 – 186 30.01.2015 ru 1053
The article discusses the Riemann's unified field theory and its extension in 6D in general relativity. It is shown that in 6D there are possible movements on two spherical areas in the form of nonlinear waves
151 kb

BEAVER’S TECHNIQUE OF RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE ESTIMATION OF THE FINANCIAL POSITIONS OF COMPANIES USING MATHEMATICAL OPTIMIZATION

abstract 1051501023 issue 105 pp. 425 – 434 30.01.2015 ru 1025
In this article we propose a method of determining the share or the significance (weight) of indicators of Beaver and risks R in the portfolio formed by these parameters allowing us to minimize the mean square error evaluating the effectiveness of the portfolio (risk) in the assessment of the financial condition of the companies investigated. The proposed method is the minimization of a quadratic form in variables satisfying lengthy conditions, i.e. the quadratic programming. This technique is implemented using four methods of optimization: analytical method, using built-in function minimization block given, the penalty function method and the gradient method. More so, this technique allows, as shown by the results of the computational experiments, the expert without routine statistical data processing to obtain additional information on the credit worthiness of the investigated enterprise and make a more informed conclusion about its financial condition, which speeds up the decision on granting a loan required by a company. Based on the techniques proposed in this paper, other techniques of assessing the creditworthiness of businesses may be constructed using the results of optimization theory based on well-established applied research methods: Method of evaluating the creditworthiness of Russia, Credit scoring method, the American method, method of Altman and others
615 kb

MODIFICATION OF WEIGHTED LEAST SQUARES BY USING THE OBSERVATIONS OF THE AMOUNT OF INFORMATION IN THEM AS WEIGHTS (MATHEMATICAL ASPECTS)

abstract 1051501050 issue 105 pp. 813 – 844 30.01.2015 ru 933
This article briefly discusses the mathematical nature of the author's proposed modification of the weighted least squares, in which the amount of the data is used as the weights of observations. There are two variants of this modification. In the first one, the weighting of the observations was made by replacing one observation with a certain amount of the information in it by the corresponding number of observations for unit weight, and then we applied the standard method of least squares. In the second method, the weighting of the observations was performed for each value of the argument by replacing all observations with a certain amount of information in one observation of unit weight which had been obtained as a weighted average of them, and then we applied the standard method of least squares. We have described in detail the technique of numerical calculations of the amount of information in the observations, based on the theory of automated system-cognitive analysis (ASC-analysis) and implemented it with a help of software tools - intelligent system called "Eidos". The article provides an illustration of the proposed approach on a simple numerical example. In the future, we are planning to give more detailed mathematical basis of the method of weighted least squares, which is modified by using the amount of information as weights, but also to explore its properties
231 kb

PHYSICAL MEANING OF CERTAIN SIMILARITY CRITERIAS OF TRANSPORT PROCESSES IN THE DESALTING CHANNEL THE ELECTRODIALYSIS DEVICE WITH ELECTROCONVECTION

abstract 1051501051 issue 105 pp. 845 – 864 30.01.2015 ru 1246
The phenomenon of electro convection in membrane systems is of considerable interest, because it is, according to many authors, the main mechanism of overlimiting mass transfer. A great number of theoretical and experimental works, in which, as a rule, dimensional values were used, are devoted to electro convection study. Because of that, in actual fact, there is investigated the influence of individual factors on the transfer process. For example, the influence of voltage jumps, the average speed of a forced stream of the solution, the geometric characteristics of the channel, the initial concentration, etc. However, the influence of these factors appears not separately, at the same time. Thus, there is the problem of introducing dimensionless complexes of dimensional values that have a physical meaning and that allow to evaluate the inner links of the process. As it is known, for solving that problem, there is applied a theory of similarity, based on the transition towards dimensionless parameters in equations and formulas describing the process, and using values, typical of the system under study. This work is devoted to the determining of physical meaning of similarity criteria of salt ions processes, taking into account electro convection in the desalting channel of electro dialysis apparatus. The channel is bounded with perfectly selective, homogeneous anion-exchange and cation-exchange membranes. The introduced similarity criteria are used so as to conduct the theoretical study of the effect of a number of parameters of a desalting process on electro convection
238 kb

THEORY OF SIMILARITY OF ELECTRO MEMBRANE SYSTEMS WITH REGARD TO FORCED, GRAVITATIONAL AND ELECTRO CONVECTION

abstract 1051501052 issue 105 pp. 865 – 886 30.01.2015 ru 981
In the article, we have suggested a general mathematical model of non-stationary and non-isothermal process of a binary electrolyte transfer in dilute solutions in an electro-membrane system (EMS), taking into account the joint action of gravitational convection, forced convection and electro convection in potential dynamic mode. This model is a boundary problem for a system of two-dimensional quasi-linear Navier-Stokes equation and Nernst-Planck-Poisson in partial derivatives equation. We have developed a theory of similarity of the process of heat and mass transfer in electro-membrane systems, specifically, in a desalting channel of electro dialysis apparatus, taking into account joint actions of concentration polarization, space charge, gravity convection, forced convection and electro convection. It is shown that the criterion of electro convection does not directly depend on the initial concentration, and, therefore, electro convection occurs at any initial concentration. At the same time, the criterion of concentration convection linearly dependents on the initial concentration, and, therefore, at high concentrations, concentration convection prevails, while at lower concentrations, the role of gravitational convection begins to fall whereas the role of electro convection increases. The theory of similarity of the process of heat and mass transfer in the desalting channel of electro dialysis apparatus built in this work taking into account the joint action of concentration polarization, space charge, gravity convection, forced convection and electro convection is important for engineering calculations, for scaling the results of experiments in an electro-membrane cell for industrial electro dialysis water desalting apparatus
3033 kb

SOLVING PROBLEMS OF STATISTICS WITH THE METHODS OF INFORMATION THEORY

abstract 1061502001 issue 106 pp. 1 – 47 28.02.2015 ru 1003
The article presents a theoretical substantiation, methods of numerical calculations and software implementation of the decision of problems of statistics, in particular the study of statistical distributions, methods of information theory. On the basis of empirical data by calculation we have determined the number of observations used for the analysis of statistical distributions. The proposed method of calculating the amount of information is not based on assumptions about the independence of observations and the normal distribution, i.e., is non-parametric and ensures the correct modeling of nonlinear systems, and also allows comparable to process heterogeneous (measured in scales of different types) data numeric and non-numeric nature that are measured in different units. Thus, ASC-analysis and "Eidos" system is a modern innovation (ready for implementation) technology solving problems of statistical methods of information theory. This article can be used as a description of the laboratory work in the disciplines of: intelligent systems; knowledge engineering and intelligent systems; intelligent technologies and knowledge representation; knowledge representation in intelligent systems; foundations of intelligent systems; introduction to neuromaturation and methods neural networks; fundamentals of artificial intelligence; intelligent technologies in science and education; knowledge management; automated system-cognitive analysis and "Eidos" intelligent system which the author is developing currently, but also in other disciplines associated with the transformation of data into information, and its transformation into knowledge and application of this knowledge to solve problems of identification, forecasting, decision making and research of the simulated subject area (which is virtually all subjects in all fields of science)
175 kb

PROBABILISTIC-STATISTICAL MODELING THE INTERFERENCES FROM ELECTRIC LOCOMOTIVES

abstract 1061502016 issue 106 pp. 225 – 238 28.02.2015 ru 810
The movements of electric locomotives create the interferences affecting the wired link. The creation of sufficiently technical effective and at the same time cost-effective means of protection from wireline interferences generated traction networks assumes as a preparatory phase to develop mathematical models of interference caused by electric locomotives. We have developed a probabilistic-statistical model of interferences caused by electric locomotives. The asymptotic distribution of the total interference is the distribution of the length of the two-dimensional random vector whose coordinates - independent normally distributed random variables with mean 0 and variance 1. Limit theorem is proved for the expectation of the total amplitude of the interferences. Monte-Carlo method is used to study the rate of convergence of the expectation of the total amplitude of the interferences to the limiting value. We used an algorithm of mixing developed by MacLaren-Marsaglia (M-algorithm). Five sets of amplitudes are analyzed, selected in accordance with the recommendations of experts in the field of traction AC networks. The most rapid convergence to the limit takes place in the case of equal amplitudes. It was found that the maximum possible average value of the amplitude of the random noise by 7.4% less than the previously used value, which promises a significant economic impact
285 kb

CURRENT STATUS OF NONPARAMETRIC STATISTICS

abstract 1061502017 issue 106 pp. 239 – 269 28.02.2015 ru 1520
Nonparametric statistics is one of the five points of growth of applied mathematical statistics. Despite the large number of publications on specific issues of nonparametric statistics, the internal structure of this research direction has remained undeveloped. The purpose of this article is to consider its division into regions based on the existing practice of scientific activity determination of nonparametric statistics and classify investigations on nonparametric statistical methods. Nonparametric statistics allows to make statistical inference, in particular, to estimate the characteristics of the distribution and testing statistical hypotheses without, as a rule, weakly proven assumptions about the distribution function of samples included in a particular parametric family. For example, the widespread belief that the statistical data are often have the normal distribution. Meanwhile, analysis of results of observations, in particular, measurement errors, always leads to the same conclusion - in most cases the actual distribution significantly different from normal. Uncritical use of the hypothesis of normality often leads to significant errors, in areas such as rejection of outlying observation results (emissions), the statistical quality control, and in other cases. Therefore, it is advisable to use nonparametric methods, in which the distribution functions of the results of observations are imposed only weak requirements. It is usually assumed only their continuity. On the basis of generalization of numerous studies it can be stated that to date, using nonparametric methods can solve almost the same number of tasks that previously used parametric methods. Certain statements in the literature are incorrect that nonparametric methods have less power, or require larger sample sizes than parametric methods. Note that in the nonparametric statistics, as in mathematical statistics in general, there remain a number of unresolved problems
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