Name
Zhmurko Daniil Yuryevich
Scholastic degree
—
Academic rank
—
Honorary rank
—
Organization, job position
Kuban State Agrarian University
Web site url
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Articles count: 27
The article discusses the possible variants of solution of the problems accompanying the sustainable development of integrated segments of sugar sub-complex of agroindustrial complex adaptive management. It also describes the study of criteria and requirements they must meet
The article reveals the concepts such as processes, cycles and phases (stages, levels) of adaptive man-agement. The stages of the management cycle of integrated segments of sugar subcomplex are pro-vided in the tables. We also provide a definition for systems with aggravation
The article considers the special role of paradigms in the study (writing) of the General theory of cycles. The authors ' task is systematization of knowledge in this area and obtain an objective assessment by means of retrospective material, which shows the change of one paradigm to another
This article is devoted to the practical application
of economic-mathematical methods (based on correlation
analysis) to control the economic parameters
of the integrated production systems sugar
subcomplex (IPS SS) AIC oriented to meet the
needs in the sugar production of the population not
only of individuals, but also of the regions and the
country as a whole. This article discusses and
solves the following tasks: autocorrelation and
partial autocorrelation functions, cross-correlation
function (correlation matrix) study of deciduous
macroeconomics series, with appropriate verification
(test) Durbin - Watson. The study used Statistica,
MS Excel and Xlstat add-in. The work describes
experiments with various kinds of nonstationary
time series of the agricultural sector and
food industry sugar subcomplex, as well as the test
results on the difficulty of communication between
them. We have identified industry-high cycles. The
article presents results of numerical experiments
autocorrelation of the time series of sugar production,
acreage, gross harvest and yield of sugar beet
and sugar cane, by country. Systematically, we
describe ideas and methods underlying the correlation
analysis. We have given the evaluation of the
results of correlation analysis on each type. Further,
it can be assumed that the proposed techniques
will greatly affect a key points when making
recommendations for new models of production
of sugar products, market-oriented – this will
minimize the time and cost of the finished product
that will make a more stable position in the sector
for this integrated production system in relation to
its competition
This article is devoted to the practical application
of economic-mathematical methods (based on correlation
analysis) to control the economic parameters
of the integrated production systems sugar
subcomplex (IPS SS) AIC oriented to meet the
needs in the sugar production of the population not
only of individuals, but also of the regions and the
country as a whole. This article discusses and
solves the following tasks: autocorrelation and
partial autocorrelation functions, cross-correlation
function (correlation matrix) study of deciduous
macroeconomics series, with appropriate verification
(test) Durbin - Watson. The study used Statistica,
MS Excel and Xlstat add-in. The work describes
experiments with various kinds of nonstationary
time series of the agricultural sector and
food industry sugar subcomplex, as well as the test
results on the difficulty of communication between
them. We have identified industry-high cycles. The
article presents results of numerical experiments
autocorrelation of the time series of sugar production,
acreage, gross harvest and yield of sugar beet
and sugar cane, by country. Systematically, we
describe ideas and methods underlying the correlation
analysis. We have given the evaluation of the
results of correlation analysis on each type. Further,
it can be assumed that the proposed techniques
will greatly affect a key points when making
recommendations for new models of production
of sugar products, market-oriented – this will
minimize the time and cost of the finished product
that will make a more stable position in the sector
for this integrated production system in relation to
its competition
Objective: To improve the consistency and effectiveness
of strategic planning and forecasting in
modern conditions it requires development of the
existing classifications of types of planning, strategies,
forecasts and forecast methods. This study examines
the introduction to problems of spectral
analysis of the macroeconomic dynamics of key
world and Russian sugar subcomplex. The article is
devoted to forecasting the activities of integrated
manufacturing systems of sugar subcomplex in agro
industrial subcomplex. As well as to the practical
application of economic-mathematical methods
(based on spectral analysis) to control the economic
parameters of the integrated industrial systems of the
sugar subcomplex, oriented to meet the needs of the
sugar production of the population not only of individuals,
but of the regions and the country as a
whole. Discussion: Procedures to identify and study
the dynamics of periodic components of the development
of the agriculture segment agriculture are
based on methods of spectral analysis of random
processes. The article describes the performed experiments
with various kinds of non-stationary time
series of agricultural sector and food industry sugar
subcomplex. The article presents results of numerical
experiments with the spectra of time series of
sugar production, sown areas, gross harvest and
yield of sugar beet and sugar cane country. Systematic
ideas and methods underlying the spectral analysis
were shown. The article also assesses the results.
Results: The algorithm developed by the author
for the adaptive method of spectral analysis was
implemented by the author in the context of a specific
software product, namely in MS Excel format.
The results of the empirical research confirmed the
possibility of practical use of developed models in
forecasting likely scenarios for the development of
sugar sub-complex in the interests of integrated production
systems. The results are illustrated by numerous
graphs based on real data. We have also
built projection of latent structures of sugar subcomplex in the macroregions. It is revealed that each of
the macroeconomic time series can contain at least
from 2 to 9 harmonics (cycles) of different kind and
strength of impact on the trend
Objective: To improve the consistency and effectiveness
of strategic planning and forecasting in
modern conditions it requires development of the
existing classifications of types of planning, strategies,
forecasts and forecast methods. This study examines
the introduction to problems of spectral
analysis of the macroeconomic dynamics of key
world and Russian sugar subcomplex. The article is
devoted to forecasting the activities of integrated
manufacturing systems of sugar subcomplex in agro
industrial subcomplex. As well as to the practical
application of economic-mathematical methods
(based on spectral analysis) to control the economic
parameters of the integrated industrial systems of the
sugar subcomplex, oriented to meet the needs of the
sugar production of the population not only of individuals,
but of the regions and the country as a
whole. Discussion: Procedures to identify and study
the dynamics of periodic components of the development
of the agriculture segment agriculture are
based on methods of spectral analysis of random
processes. The article describes the performed experiments
with various kinds of non-stationary time
series of agricultural sector and food industry sugar
sub-complex. The article presents results of numerical
experiments with the spectra of time series of
sugar production, sown areas, gross harvest and
yield of sugar beet and sugar cane country. Systematic
ideas and methods underlying the spectral analysis
were shown. The article also assesses the results.
Results: The algorithm developed by the author
for the adaptive method of spectral analysis was
implemented by the author in the context of a specific
software product, namely in MS Excel format.
The results of the empirical research confirmed the
possibility of practical use of developed models in
forecasting likely scenarios for the development of
sugar sub-complex in the interests of integrated production
systems. The results are illustrated by numerous
graphs based on real data. We have also
built projection of latent structures of sugar subcomplex in the macroregions. It is revealed that each of
the macroeconomic time series can contain at least
from 2 to 9 harmonics (cycles) of different kind and
strength of impact on the trend
The article is devoted to the search and development of new models of structural changes. The results of these studies correct the activity of the major sugar integrated production systems of sugar subcomplex in the agro industrial subcomplex. The article reveals the problem of formation of an integrated methodology for analysis of structural changes in the economy of AIC, denoted with indicators and macroeconomic parameters of the sugar subcomplex, which need to be considered in the evaluation of structural changes. We set the task of developing a new tool of mathematical statistics, solving a range of problems for identifying non-stationary time series (NSTS) of the “beginning” of new super cycles (sets of cycles). In the economy the classic solution to this problem is in the field of detection of non-equilibrium effect of delayed reaction to earlier technological change, changes in foreign trade conditions, low mobility of labor and capital, and the various barriers to free competition. From our point of view, the ideal solution corresponds to the detection channel offset and the verification of dynamic series for homogeneity, i.e. the presence of phase transitions. The structural shift in the economy can be seen as a qualitative change in the system, consisting in the replacement of the previously existing ties between its constituent parts with new ones. Such shifts are due to the uneven development of the various elements of the economic system, they indicate that there are changes in the needs of subjects of economic life and economic resources. The author proposes a control parameter of the analysis, which uses methods to determine structural changes (tests Pettitte, Buishand and Alexandersson). The article deals with structural changes in the sugar industry of agriculture. The analyzed period is according to different categories from 60 to 180 years. The presence of structural changes is investigated by indicators such as the amount of sown areas, gross harvest, yield of sugar beet and sugar production from sugar beets and cane. We have investigated the theoretical and methodological approaches, the existing methods for the analysis of structural shifts in the economy and their impact on reproductive processes, their classification is given. We have identified key issues of improving efficiency and quality of transforming the economic structure of the sugar subcomplex. The article shows the dynamics of indicators of the economic structure of the sugar subcomplex of Russia and other countries of the world for different periods of time and its impact on sugar subcomplex of AIC. The author has proposed an adaptive algorithm and model test for homogeneity (structural shift) for integrated production systems that focus on sugar subcomplex of AIC. This method has been tested by the author in relation to economic systems (at various levels) of sugar subcomplex in agro industrial subcomplex of Russia, other countries and the world at large. Along with this, the author has proposed (we have developed a hierarchical analysis of structural changes) to use the identification of clusters for each category of sugar subcomplex with attraction of mathematical apparatus in the form of tests for homogeneity. We have marked indicators and parameters for the analysis of structural shift, the main reasons for this phenomenon. The results of empirical studies carried out have confirmed the possibility of practical use of the developed analysis
The article deals with methods of visual-graphic analysis (technical analysis) and a possibility of adapting them to the conditions (indicators) of the sugar subcomplex from the position of integrated production systems (IPS). It should be noted that technical analysis is very popular. Thanks to the advent of powerful processors for computers and inexpensive software, trade analysts have access to technical analysis tools. The topic is becoming increasingly relevant in connection with the high pace of the global economic community. Visual graphical analysis (technical analysis), as well as its latest methods (indicators) that are adapted to modern economic conditions, are sort of the primary "blueprints" for the more complex forecasting tools, without which none of the analyst can do. Separating statistics from mathematics as an independent unit occurred after the development and start of mass use of tools visual graphical analysis (VGA) in various applied Sciences. The main feature of the prediction is the decision of the tasks, which are implemented in the algorithm of sequential nonparametric model. This indicates the improving the validity of information when predicting performance of IPS SP AIC. For a more General (objective) picture of the forecasting activities of IPS SP you need to apply this analysis in combination with other tools, such as hierarchical analysis of structural change and of correlation and spectral analysis. According to the forecasts obtained with the help of the indicators VGA, countries such as Brazil and India over time, waiting for the "overheating" of the economy due to unprecedented growth in the volume of growing sugar cane and manufacturing raw sugar. However, it is not necessary to consider the visual-graphic analysis as a perfect tool for forecasting market trends. Technical analysis should be seen as a tool for analysis and forecasting, which uses as the basis for short-term forecasting (benchmark) for operational decision-making by managers as a major sugar holdings, and the Ministry of agriculture
The article deals with methods of visual-graphic analysis (technical analysis) and a possibility of adapting them to the conditions (indicators) of the sugar subcomplex from the position of integrated production systems (IPS). It should be noted that technical analysis is very popular. Thanks to the advent of powerful processors for computers and inexpensive software, trade analysts have access to technical analysis tools. The topic is becoming increasingly relevant in connection with the high pace of the global economic community. Visual graphical analysis (technical analysis), as well as its latest methods (indicators) that are adapted to modern economic conditions, are sort of the primary "blueprints" for the more complex forecasting tools, without which none of the analyst can do. Separating statistics from mathematics as an independent unit occurred after the development and start of mass use of tools visual graphical analysis (VGA) in various applied Sciences. The main feature of the prediction is the decision of the tasks which are implemented in the algorithm of sequential nonparametric model. This indicates the improving the validity of information when predicting performance of IPS SP AIC. For a more General (objective) picture of the forecasting activities of IPS SP you need to apply this analysis in combination with other tools, such as hierarchical analysis of structural change and of correlation and spectral analysis. According to the forecasts obtained with the help of indicators the VGA, countries such as Brazil and India over time, waiting for the "overheating" of the economy due to unprecedented growth in the volume of growing sugar cane and manufacturing raw sugar. However, it is not necessary to consider the visual-graphic analysis as a perfect tool for forecasting market trends. Technical analysis should be seen as a tool for analysis and forecasting, which uses as the basis for short-term forecasting (benchmark) for operational decision-making by managers as a major sugar holdings, and the Ministry of agriculture