Among the widely used economic-mathematical models, dynamic programming plays an important role, and among them, models with discounting. The most famous example is the model for calculating the net present value (NPV) as an estimate of the efficiency of the investment project. In the article, it is clarified which features are distinguished by models with discounting among all models of dynamic programming. In models with discounting, the comparison of plans does not change when the time of the beginning of the implementation of plans changes, ie. there is a stability of the results of comparing plans. It is proved that if the results of comparing plans for 1 and 2 steps are stable in the dynamic programming model, then this model is a model with discounting. This theorem shows that the introduction of discounted functions for the estimation of the effect is justified only in stable economic conditions in which the orderliness of managerial decisions does not change from year to year. In other words, if at the beginning of the period under consideration the first solution is better than the second, then at all other times, up to the end of the period under consideration, the first solution is better than the second. Stable economic conditions are rarely found in the modern economy with its constant changes, including those caused by innovations. Therefore, the decision to choose (to implement) an investment project from a set of possible ones can not be based solely on the calculation of discounted project performance indicators, such as net present value and internal rate of return. Such indicators can only play a supporting role. Decide on the choice of an investment project for implementation is necessary on the basis of the whole range of social, technological, environmental, economic, political factors
The article is devoted to the study of the structural and functional organization of cereal and legume-cereal seed with intensive use in order to develop a model of agrophytocenoses with productive longevity and feed quality. A set of techniques has been developed to optimize the basic conditions of existence of highly productive, natural vegetation and on this basis to use grass stands rationally, create highly productive agrophytocenoses, and also grow artificial agrophytocenoses instead of degraded ones, helps to eliminate the negative consequences of the unreasonable exploitation of vegetation cover, improve its condition, significantly increase productivity and qualitative composition of natural ecosystems
The article studies the influence of the plant growth regulator of the retardant type called HEFK (AS 480 g/l of etephone) on the yield and structural elements of winter wheat of Moskovskaya 39 variety under the conditions of the OAO Veryakushi Agricultural Entreprise, located in the north-eastern part of Diveyevo region on gray forest medium loamy soil. Field studies were being carried out for three years: from 2016 to 2019. We studied different application rates of HEFK: 0.5; 1.0; 1.5; and 2.0 l / ha. The processing of winter wheat crops was performed in the phase of the beginning of exit into the tube. On average, over 3 years, the indicators of field germination of seeds and the survival rate of plants at harvest were good and amounted to 88.4-89.2% and 80.1 - 81.3%, respectively. The processing crops by HEFK in doses of 0.5 and 1.0 l / ha, showed the highest crop yield of - 4.07 and 4.12 t / ha, which exceeded the control rate by 0.29 and 0.34 t / ha, respectively. The growth regulator did not showed a significant effect on the density of the productive stem. At the same time, the treatment of HEFK crops in doses of 0.5 and 1.0 l / ha showed an increase in the spike productivity by 0.121-0.133 g due to an increase in spike grains by 3 pcs. In the variant with a HEFK use rate of 1.0 l / ha, the weight of 1000 grains increased by 0.6 g compared to the control rate. An increase in the dose of the growth regulator significantly reduced the height of wheat plants from 72.1 cm in the control group to 48.0 cm in the variant with a product application rate of 2.0 l / ha. The spike length in the variants with the application rate of HEFK of 0.5 and 1.0 l / ha was at the control level - 7.0-7.1 cm, whereas an increase in the dose of the growth regulator to 1.5-2.0 l / ha showed the decrease in the length of the spike by 0.5-0.8 cm. When using growth regulator HEFK resistance of crops to lodging varied from 4.7 till 5.0 points
The correlation and determination coefficients are widely used in statistical data analysis. According to measurement theory, Pearson's linear paired correlation coefficient is applicable to variables measured on an interval scale. It cannot be used in the analysis of ordinal data. The nonparametric Spearman and Kendall rank coefficients estimate the relationship of ordinal variables. The critical value when testing the significance of the difference of the correlation coefficient from 0 depends on the sample size. Therefore, using the Chaddock Scale is incorrect. When using a passive experiment, the correlation coefficients are reasonably used for prediction, but not for control. To obtain probabilistic-statistical models intended for control, an active experiment is required. The effect of outliers on the Pearson correlation coefficient is very large. With an increase in the number of analyzed sets of predictors, the maximum of the corresponding correlation coefficients — indicators of approximation quality noticeably increases (the effect of “inflation” of the correlation coefficient). Four main regression analysis models are considered. Models of the least squares method with a determinate independent variable are distinguished. The distribution of deviations is arbitrary, however, to obtain the limit distributions of parameter estimates and regression dependences, we assume that the conditions of the central limit theorem are satisfied. The second type of model is based on a sample of random vectors. The dependence is nonparametric, the distribution of the two-dimensional vector is arbitrary. The estimation of the variance of an independent variable can be discussed only in the model based on a sample of random vectors, as well as the determination coefficient as a quality criterion for the model. Time series smoothing is discussed. Methods of restoring dependencies in spaces of a general nature are considered. It is shown that the limiting distribution of the natural estimate of the dimensionality of the model is geometric, and the construction of an informative subset of features encounters the effect of "inflation coefficient correlation". Various approaches to the regression analysis of interval data are discussed. Analysis of the variety of regression analysis models leads to the conclusion that there is no single “standard model”
The article discusses the concept and the principles of the organization of neuro-fuzzy management of an innovation-active enterprise based on intelligent technologies and high-performance computing tools. The developed information model provides operational control of the current situations caused by innovations in the complex dynamic conditions of the changing market conditions. Particular attention is paid to solving the problem of planning operations and developing management decisions when implementing the principle of competition in the face of uncertainty and incompleteness of the initial information. The developed software implementation of the fuzzy ranking of management solutions options is publicly available on ws-dss.com
The article provides a comparative analysis of assessments of the socio-economic development of the Krasnodar region from such well-known rating agencies as Standard & Poors, Moody’s, Fitch Ratings, which belong to the United States of America. The studied ratings are compared with the ratings of the national agency of the Russian Federation called “Expert RA”. The values of the established ratings are examined, as well as number of possible reasons why the ratings of the United States of America differ from the ratings of the Russian Federation, for example, economic and political reasons, and, subsequently, how these ratings affect the investment attractiveness of the Krasnodar region. The article explains positive and negative aspects of the integrated methodology used by international rating agencies, consisting of software and expert opinion, the level of access to it for study and analysis. We study another (local) source of information on the investment attractiveness of the Krasnodar region, which is a state institution, namely the Department of Investments and Development of Small and Medium Enterprises of the Krasnodar region. Options are proposed for improving the system of analysis of statistical data through methods that are based on a clear mathematical approach to provide an adequate assessment of the region and municipalities without the influence of subjective expert opinion
This article discusses the stages of sugar beet-root breeding work, evaluation of the results of competitive tests, genetic potential productivity of hybrids, identifying productive forms of sugar beets, research techniques and production testing sugar beet hybrids, the main achievements of Pervomaiskaya FGBNU breeding and experimental station of sugar beets
To increase productivity and quality, as well as to reduce the cost of production of winter wheat in the Central irrigated zone of the Rostov region is of great importance to find the most effective methods of agricultural culture, in particular, the protection of crops from weeds. The work determines most effective herbicides for pre-germination use against annual dicotyledonous, including resistant to 2,4-D and MCPA, and some perennial root-spray weeds in the Central irrigated zone of the Rostov region. The efficiency of different terms of application of the herbicide called Ballerina on winter wheat crops in the Central irrigated zone of the Rostov region was studied. The greatest biological effectiveness of herbicides is provided by spraying winter wheat crops in the tillering phase with Ballerina herbicide with the norm of 0.3 l/ ha. We have discovered low biological effectiveness of Gerbitox herbicide against Matricaria inodora (L.), Fumaria officinalis (L.), Artemisia vulgaris (L.) and Cirsium arvense (L.). Best experience quality indicators of winter wheat grain were observed in the variant with the lowest contamination of crops when spraying in the phase of tillering a Ballerina herbicide 0.3 l/ha. The content of trash was 7.1%, nature 790 g/l, gluten content of 26.4 %, group 2 quality, and the commodity class – 3. Good quality indicators were also observed in the variant with Ballerina herbicide treatment of 0.5 l/ha in the tube exit phase. The highest level of profitability was obtained when spraying winter wheat crops in the tillering phase with Ballerina herbicide 0.3 l / ha-116%, and the lowest on the control was without treatment with herbicides - 74%
The purpose of this work is to estimate the probability of synchronization of the memory bandwidth during the initial synchronization occurrence in REB conditions, due to the time interval when the attacker did not begin to interfere
The article presents the results of studying the growth and development of repair heifers of Holstein cattle belonging to the lines Vis Back Ideal and Reflection Sovering. The feeding and maintenance conditions in both groups were the same. In accordance with the generally accepted scheme of drinking during the milk period, the heifers received 180 kg of whole milk and 400 kg of its substitution. Starting from the age of 10-15 days, the heifers were grouped into groups of 15 heads each. The live weight and average daily increments of test heifers varied differently. Linear growth and average daily gains in the experimental group were higher than in the control group. Studies have found that heifers from the experimental group in all the studied periods were superior to heifers from the control group and for the entire period, the average daily increase was 16.5 g more. The average daily increments were at the level of 747.5 and 764.0 g, the live weight by the age of the first insemination was 373.5 kg in the control group and 381.8 kg in the experimental group. Linear indicators have significant differences in height at the withers at the age of 1 insemination; depth of chest behind shoulders in 6-month age and at 1-tion insemination; oblique body length (tape) in the age of the 1st insemination; the chest girth at 12 months of age and at 1-tion insemination. The results of the study show that the cultivation of repair heifers of the Vis Back Idial and Reflection Sovering lines of the Holstein breed further contributes to an increase in the growth of dairy productivity in farms and an increase in gross milk production