Scientific Journal of KubSAU

The paper discusses the modeling and prediction of the climate of our planet with the use of artificial intelligence AIDOS-X. We have developed a number of semantic information models, demonstrating the presence of the elements of similarity between the motion of the lunar orbit and the displacement of the instantaneous pole of the Earth. It was found that the movement of the poles of the Earth leading to the variations in the magnetic field, seismic events, as well as violations of the global atmospheric circulation and water, and particular to the emergence of episodes such as El Niño and La Niña. Through semantic information models studied some equatorial regions of the Pacific Ocean, as well as spatial patterns of temperate latitudes, revealed their relative importance for the prediction of global climatic disturbances in the tropical and temperate latitudes. The reasons of occurrence of El Niño Modoki and their relationship with the movement of elements of the lunar orbit in the long-term cycles are established. Earlier, we had made a forecast of the occurrence of El Niño episode in 2015. Based on the analysis of semantic models concluded that the expected El Niño classical type. On the basis of the prediction block AIDOS-X calculated monthly evolution scenario of global climate anomalies. In this paper, the analysis of the actual implementation forecast of El Niño since its publication in January 2015 - before June 2015. It is shown that the predicted scenario of climatic anomalies actually realized. Calculations of future climate scenarios with system «Aidos-X» recognition module indicate that further possible abnormal excess temperature indicators of surface ocean waters in regions Nino 1,2 and Nino3,4 for 2015 may be comparable with similar abnormalities in the catastrophic El Niño of 1997-1998.

The article presents a theoretical substantiation, methods of numerical calculations and software implementation of the decision of problems of statistics, in particular the study of statistical distributions, methods of information theory. On the basis of empirical data by calculation we have determined the number of observations used for the analysis of statistical distributions. The proposed method of calculating the amount of information is not based on assumptions about the independence of observations and the normal distribution, i.e., is non-parametric and ensures the correct modeling of nonlinear systems, and also allows comparable to process heterogeneous (measured in scales of different types) data numeric and non-numeric nature that are measured in different units. Thus, ASC-analysis and "Eidos" system is a modern innovation (ready for implementation) technology solving problems of statistical methods of information theory. This article can be used as a description of the laboratory work in the disciplines of: intelligent systems; knowledge engineering and intelligent systems; intelligent technologies and knowledge representation; knowledge representation in intelligent systems; foundations of intelligent systems; introduction to neuromaturation and methods neural networks; fundamentals of artificial intelligence; intelligent technologies in science and education; knowledge management; automated system-cognitive analysis and "Eidos" intelligent system which the author is developing currently, but also in other disciplines associated with the transformation of data into information, and its transformation into knowledge and application of this knowledge to solve problems of identification, forecasting, decision making and research of the simulated subject area (which is virtually all subjects in all fields of science)

In the USSR higher attestation Commission from 1975 to the collapse of the USSR was subordinated not to the Ministry of education and science, but to the Council of Ministers of the USSR directly. However, since then there is a steady trend of gradual reduction of the status of the Commission. Today it is not just included in the Ministry of education, it is just one of the units of one of its structures: the Rosobrnadzor. Reduced status of the HAC inevitably leads to a decline in the status and in the adequacy of scientific degrees assigned as well as scientific ranks. This process of devaluation of traditional academic degrees and titles assigned to the HAC, has reached the point when a few years ago there were abolished salary increments for them. Now, instead of that, every university and research institutes have developed their local, i.e. non-comparable with each other scientometric methods of evaluation of the results of scientific and teaching activities. Despite the diversity of these techniques, there is a common thing among all of them, which is the disproportionate role of the h-index. The value of the Hirsch index starts to play an important role in the protection, when considering competitive cases for positions, as well as in determining the monthly rewards for the results of scientific and teaching activities. By itself, this index is well founded, theoretically. However, in connection with the practice of its application in our conditions, in the collective consciousness of the scientific community there was a kind of mania, which the authors call the "Hirschmania". This mania is characterized by elevated unhealthy interest to the value of the Hirsch index, as well as incorrect manipulation of its value, i.e. inadequate artificial exaggeration of this value, as well as a number of negative consequences of that interest. In this study we have made an attempt to construct a quantitative measure for assessing the extent of improper manipulation of the value of the Hirsch index, and offered a science-based modification of the h-index, insensitive (resistant) to the manipulation. The article presents a technique for all the numerical calculations, which is simple enough for any author to use

Based on local semantic information models, we have examined the dependence of the dynamics of the displacement of the pole positions of celestial objects. We have also developed and differentiated an analysis of ASK-pole modeling of dynamics within sixty-year cycles of reference points and substantiated reasons for the population inversion and singular states in the dynamics of the pole

The article briefly describes the essence of management, stating the goals and structure of the system of personnel management. It considers the essence of the method of functional-cost analysis (FCA) and, as a major gap, we have noted a low level of formalization, which requires the involvement of experts in applying the FSA. It also specifies the difference between the cost and the cost price. We consider the decision of questions of creation of the personnel management system on the FCA basis using the method of automated system-cognitive analysis (ASA-analysis), in particular: the measurement of the severity of socio-economic and psychological properties, metric scales, build intellectual measuring system, the development and application of models, providing both building occupation graphs and their application to measure the degree of compliance of the Respondent with the requirements of professional positions and to the positions including the cost of employment of personnel and resources allocated for staff on posts. The proposed approach can be applied not only at the decision of tasks of human resource management with DAF method, but when you apply the FSA in a variety of subject areas, in particular - the method of direct-Costing

In the article the application of systemic-cognitive analysis, its mathematical model - the system theory of the information and its program toolkit - "Eidos" system for synthesis of the generalized images of classes, their abstraction, classification of the generalized images (clusters and constructs) comparisons of concrete images with the generalized images (identification) are examined. We suggest a new approach to the digitization of images, based on the use of the polar coordinate system, the center of gravity of the image and its contour. Before digitizing images we can use their changes to standardize the position of the picture-frames, their size and rotation. Therefore, if you specify this option, the results of digitization and image ASC-analysis can be invariant (independent) to their position, size and rotation. This means that in the model on the basis of a number of specific examples we will create one image of each class of images, independent of their specific implementations, i.e., the "Eidos" of these images (in the sense of Plato) - a prototype or archetype (in the Jungian sense) images. But the "Eidos" system provides not only the formation of prototype images, which quantitatively reflects the amount of information in the image elements of the prototype, but the removal of all irrelevant to identification (abstraction), and the comparison of specific images with generic (identification) and the generalized images of images together (classification). The article provides a detailed numerical example of ASC- analysis of images

Recently, the process of monetization of the evaluation of scientific activity was initiated, and there is a need for quantitative methods and comparable assessment of the effectiveness and quality of work of a scientist. There are numerous methods to reward for these results. What is common to all these techniques covered is the role of the Hirsch index or h-index. By itself, this index is well founded. However, in connection with the practice of application of h-index in our environment in the minds of the scientific community it has started some kind of mania, which the author proposes to call "Hirsch-mania". This mania is characterized by elevated unhealthy interest to the value of the Hirsch index, especially inadequate artificial exaggeration of this value, as well as a number of negative implications of this interest. In this article we have made an attempt to briefly describe some of the negative effects of this new mental infection that hit the public consciousness of the scientific community. And also we want to identify ways of overcoming at least some of their causes. This is the problem solved in this work. To solve the formulated problem, we propose to apply multi-criteria approach based on information theory, namely those options, which are implemented in an automated system-cognitive analysis (ASC-analysis) and its software tools - intelligent system called "Eidos

In the article the application of systemic-cognitive analysis and its mathematical model i.e. the system theory of the information and its program toolkit which is "Eidos" system for loading images from graphics files, synthesis of the generalized images of classes, their abstraction, classification of the generalized images (clusters and constructs) comparisons of concrete images with the generalized images (identification) are examined. We suggest using the theory of information for processing the data and its size for every pixel which indicates that the image is of a certain class. A numerical example is given in which on the basis of a number of specific examples of images belonging to different classes, forming generalized images of these classes, independent of their specific implementations, i.e., the "Eidoses" of these images (in the definition of Plato) – the prototypes or archetypes of images (in the definition of Jung). But the "Eidos" system provides not only the formation of prototype images, which quantitatively reflects the amount of information in the elements of specific images on their belonging to a particular proto-types, but a comparison of specific images with generic (identification) and the generalization of pictures images with each other (classification)

Total lie is considered in the article as strategic information weapons of society in the era of globalization and augmented reality. The article reveals the possibility of application the principle of observability in modern society, as it is common in physics criterion of reality. It is shown, in which cases the application of this principle in studies of society leads to social illusions, and when it gives adequate results. We have offered a concept: “the degree of virtualization of society” and a quantitative scale for its measurement, and we have also introduced the concept of "Public Umwelt" by which the area of society that differs significantly from the rest of their fundamental laws is meant

A determination system of the population health is a big complex hierarchical system. The current level of management of such systems involves the use of mathematical models and corresponding software tools for the accumulation of baseline data (monitoring), identification, prediction and decision-making. However, when modeling such large complex systems, we face a number of problems. The main problem is that in one model it is necessary to process a very large number of factors in a proper and comparable way, that are measured in different units, and different types of scales (numeric and text). Traditionally, to solve this problem and determine the values of individual criteria we use expert evaluation and desirability functions, and the integral criterion is the geometric mean. However, the traditional approach, currently applied in this field, has several disadvantages. First, in the traditional model it is defined in an expert way, which factors influence the decision of different problems in a positive way, which ones are negative and which ones do not affect. Second, for the numerical evaluation of influence factors on the solution of the problem we use different algorithms for calculating values of the desirability function for positively and negatively influencing factors which, when used as an integral criterion of the geometric average, leads to comparable results. Third, the use of normalized utility functions leads to the leveling force of the impact factors resulting in weak impact and the influencing factors are given the same variation in numeric values and have similar influence on integral criteria. All of the mentioned problems of the traditional approach have been resolved using Automated system-cognitive analysis (ASC-analysis) and its programmatic Toolkit – Universal cognitive analytical system called "Eidos". In the proposed systemic cognitive model, for the values of environmental and economic factors, without the participation of the experts, we have calculated the amount and the sign of the information contained there about some values of indicators of population health