Scientific Journal of KubSAU

Improvement of consistency and effectiveness of strategic planning and forecasting in modern conditions requires the development of the existing classifications of types of planning, strategies, forecasts and forecast methods. This work examines the introduction to problems of spectral analysis of the macroeconomic dynamics of worldwide and Russian sugar subcomplex. The article is devoted to forecasting the activities of integrated manufacturing systems of sugar subcomplex in agro industrial subcomplex. The article deals with aspects of practical application of economic-mathematical methods (based on spectral analysis) to control the economic parameters of the integrated industrial systems of the sugar subcomplex, oriented to meet the needs of the sugar production of the people not only of separate regions, but also of the country as a whole. Procedures of identifying and research of periodic components of the dynamics of the development of the agriculture segment are based on methods of spectral analysis of random processes. The study describes the performed experiments with various kinds of non-stationary time series of agricultural sector and food industry sugar subcomplex. The article provides examples of the results of numerical experiments the spectra of time series of sugar production, sown areas, gross harvest and yield of sugar beet and sugar cane across countries, systematic ideas and methods underlying the spectral analysis. The estimation of obtained results is given in article. The author’s algorithm for the adaptive method of spectral analysis was implemented in the context of a specific software product, named MS Excel. The results of the empirical research confirmed the possibility of practical use of developed models in forecasting possible scenarios for the development of sugar subcomplex in the interests of integrated production systems. The results are illustrated by numerous graphs based on real data. The projections of latent structures of sugar subcomplex by macroregions are built. It is revealed that each of the macroeconomic time series can contain at least from 2 to 13 harmonics (cycles) of different kind and strength of impact on the trend

The article is devoted to the search and development of new models of structural changes. The results of these studies correct the activity of the major sugar integrated production systems of sugar subcomplex in the agro industrial subcomplex. The article reveals the problem of formation of an integrated methodology for analysis of structural changes in the economy of AIC, denoted with indicators and macroeconomic parameters of the sugar subcomplex, which need to be considered in the evaluation of structural changes. We set the task of developing a new tool of mathematical statistics, solving a range of problems for identifying non-stationary time series (NSTS) of the “beginning” of new super cycles (sets of cycles). In the economy the classic solution to this problem is in the field of detection of non-equilibrium effect of delayed reaction to earlier technological change, changes in foreign trade conditions, low mobility of labor and capital, and the various barriers to free competition. From our point of view, the ideal solution corresponds to the detection channel offset and the verification of dynamic series for homogeneity, i.e. the presence of phase transitions. The structural shift in the economy can be seen as a qualitative change in the system, consisting in the replacement of the previously existing ties between its constituent parts with new ones. Such shifts are due to the uneven development of the various elements of the economic system, they indicate that there are changes in the needs of subjects of economic life and economic resources. The author proposes a control parameter of the analysis, which uses methods to determine structural changes (tests Pettitte, Buishand and Alexandersson). The article deals with structural changes in the sugar industry of agriculture. The analyzed period is according to different categories from 60 to 180 years. The presence of structural changes is investigated by indicators such as the amount of sown areas, gross harvest, yield of sugar beet and sugar production from sugar beets and cane. We have investigated the theoretical and methodological approaches, the existing methods for the analysis of structural shifts in the economy and their impact on reproductive processes, their classification is given. We have identified key issues of improving efficiency and quality of transforming the economic structure of the sugar subcomplex. The article shows the dynamics of indicators of the economic structure of the sugar subcomplex of Russia and other countries of the world for different periods of time and its impact on sugar subcomplex of AIC. The author has proposed an adaptive algorithm and model test for homogeneity (structural shift) for integrated production systems that focus on sugar subcomplex of AIC. This method has been tested by the author in relation to economic systems (at various levels) of sugar subcomplex in agro industrial subcomplex of Russia, other countries and the world at large. Along with this, the author has proposed (we have developed a hierarchical analysis of structural changes) to use the identification of clusters for each category of sugar subcomplex with attraction of mathematical apparatus in the form of tests for homogeneity. We have marked indicators and parameters for the analysis of structural shift, the main reasons for this phenomenon. The results of empirical studies carried out have confirmed the possibility of practical use of the developed analysis

The article examines the categories, such as subject (subject-target) activities or border adaptive man-agement integrated segments of sugar subcomplex, peculiarities and specific features of adaptive man-agement peculiar only to them. The definition of benchmarking has been given, as well as we have proved the necessity of its making by complex adaptive systems of the sugar sector of the economy