Scientific Journal of KubSAU

The article considers the special role of paradigms in the study (writing) of the General theory of cycles. The authors ' task is systematization of knowledge in this area and obtain an objective assessment by means of retrospective material, which shows the change of one paradigm to another

In the article, the goal is a new way to consider some of the processes and phenomena occurring in the Universe and the world around us, to try and answer the question – what is actually a time? To give a contemporary, according to the author, the conceptual apparatus of the categories of space and time. Another goal of the work is to give hypotheses for further developments in the study of the laws of dialectics through existing-relational relations of space objects

The analysis of activity of a sugar subcomplex has allowed to develop the specified schemes of re-structuring of the integrated industrial systems of the sugar subcomplex, the concept of interaction of objects of the integrated industrial systems of the sugar subcomplex, its information, monetary and material streams, and also to construct structure of the purposes and functions of a control system of the integrated industrial systems of the sugar subcomplex. The complex of mathematical models of costs estimation of using ground resources of the integrated industrial systems of the sugar subcomplex, the system of mathematical models of efficiency management of the integrated industrial systems of the sugar subcomplex and a quantitative technique of an estimation of activity of the integrated industrial systems of the sugar subcomplex are developed.

There were opened out some methods of optimal land management decision making. There was proposed a system of mathematic models on coming out of optimal forms of arable land usage. There was modeled a combinative method of land usage with regard of objects’ insurance and so on.

Objective: To improve the consistency and effectiveness of strategic planning and forecasting in modern conditions it requires development of the existing classifications of types of planning, strategies, forecasts and forecast methods. This study examines the introduction to problems of spectral analysis of the macroeconomic dynamics of key world and Russian sugar subcomplex. The article is devoted to forecasting the activities of integrated manufacturing systems of sugar subcomplex in agro industrial subcomplex. As well as to the practical application of economic-mathematical methods (based on spectral analysis) to control the economic parameters of the integrated industrial systems of the sugar subcomplex, oriented to meet the needs of the sugar production of the population not only of individuals, but of the regions and the country as a whole. Discussion: Procedures to identify and study the dynamics of periodic components of the development of the agriculture segment agriculture are based on methods of spectral analysis of random processes. The article describes the performed experiments with various kinds of non-stationary time series of agricultural sector and food industry sugar sub-complex. The article presents results of numerical experiments with the spectra of time series of sugar production, sown areas, gross harvest and yield of sugar beet and sugar cane country. Systematic ideas and methods underlying the spectral analysis were shown. The article also assesses the results. Results: The algorithm developed by the author for the adaptive method of spectral analysis was implemented by the author in the context of a specific software product, namely in MS Excel format. The results of the empirical research confirmed the possibility of practical use of developed models in forecasting likely scenarios for the development of sugar sub-complex in the interests of integrated production systems. The results are illustrated by numerous graphs based on real data. We have also built projection of latent structures of sugar subcomplex in the macroregions. It is revealed that each of the macroeconomic time series can contain at least from 2 to 9 harmonics (cycles) of different kind and strength of impact on the trend

Objective: To improve the consistency and effectiveness of strategic planning and forecasting in modern conditions it requires development of the existing classifications of types of planning, strategies, forecasts and forecast methods. This study examines the introduction to problems of spectral analysis of the macroeconomic dynamics of key world and Russian sugar subcomplex. The article is devoted to forecasting the activities of integrated manufacturing systems of sugar subcomplex in agro industrial subcomplex. As well as to the practical application of economic-mathematical methods (based on spectral analysis) to control the economic parameters of the integrated industrial systems of the sugar subcomplex, oriented to meet the needs of the sugar production of the population not only of individuals, but of the regions and the country as a whole. Discussion: Procedures to identify and study the dynamics of periodic components of the development of the agriculture segment agriculture are based on methods of spectral analysis of random processes. The article describes the performed experiments with various kinds of non-stationary time series of agricultural sector and food industry sugar subcomplex. The article presents results of numerical experiments with the spectra of time series of sugar production, sown areas, gross harvest and yield of sugar beet and sugar cane country. Systematic ideas and methods underlying the spectral analysis were shown. The article also assesses the results. Results: The algorithm developed by the author for the adaptive method of spectral analysis was implemented by the author in the context of a specific software product, namely in MS Excel format. The results of the empirical research confirmed the possibility of practical use of developed models in forecasting likely scenarios for the development of sugar sub-complex in the interests of integrated production systems. The results are illustrated by numerous graphs based on real data. We have also built projection of latent structures of sugar subcomplex in the macroregions. It is revealed that each of the macroeconomic time series can contain at least from 2 to 9 harmonics (cycles) of different kind and strength of impact on the trend

Method, allowing to get prognosis of net profit calculation of sugar plant is presented in this paper.

The article considers brief theoretical information of the wavelet transform and the methods of identification of nonlinear time-varying systems using multiresolution wavelet transform. The methods of data processing based on wavelet transformation are widely used in recent times. Wavelets have significant advantages compared to Fourier transform because wavelet transform tells you about not only the frequency spectrum of the signal, but also on what point in time came one or another harmonic. With their help, you can easily analyze intermittent signals or signals with powerful bursts. Moreover, wavelets allow us to analyze data according to scale, on one of the preset levels (small or large). The unique properties of wavelets allow constructing a basis in which the representation of the data will be expressed with just a few nonzero coefficients. This property makes wavelets a useful tool for data packaging. Small expansion coefficients may be discarded in accordance with the selected algorithm without a significant impact on the quality of the compressed data. Wavelets have found wide application in digital signal processing and data analysis. There are two classes of wavelet transforms: continuous and discrete. In the article implemented the discrete wavelet transform with the resulting output distribution on a 3D graph. The algorithm and the results of converting a time series of indicators of integrated industrial systems of the sugar subcomplex in the agro industrial subcomplex. The methods of neural network modeling for improved accuracy in predicting high-frequency oscillation are applied in the research. The method of determination of cyclic patterns based on coefficients of the wavelet transform is proposed

This article examines the categories, principles, patterns, functions, and methods of adaptive management. Consideration of the fact that the adaptation is the model of behaviour of systems with complex organization in market conditions, and adaptive management - mechanism of realization of this model of behavior in real conditions. Comparison of adaptive management principles; a classification of principles, laws and methods of adaptive management

With development of integration processes in agro- industrial complex there was an opportunity of decrease of a sugar sub complex dependence on import of raw materials and development of its own raw-material base. Ways of development of integrated industrial system of a sugar sub complex (IIS SS) of agro-industrial complex became certain. Three models of its development are presented. Necessity of integration in a sugar sub complex of agro- industrial complex was substantiated. Integration promotes decrease in costs under production and processing of sugar beets, causing that not only minimization of organizational costs, but also the necessity of introduction of innovative technologies by producers. In the IIS SS there is a necessity to create the selling service (marketing service, etc.) which promotes increase in its profit. Consolidation (merger) of industrial systems in a sugar sub complex should be a controlled process of FAS.