Name
Temirov Astemir Alievich
Scholastic degree
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Academic rank
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Honorary rank
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Organization, job position
Financial university at the government of the RF
Web site url
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Articles count: 1
An algorithm of phase analysis as the instrument of
nonlinear dynamics' methods used to study cyclic recurrence
of time series is viewed in current article. The
existing classical econometric methods for estimating
cyclic recurrence developed for random systems which
dynamics matches to the normal distribution. However,
there also exists non-random systems characterized
by trends, periodic and non-periodic cycles called quasicycles.
An example of computing process of identifying
quasicycles is illustrated on time series of all
grain yields in Russia for the last 119 years. Phase
portrait of this time series is illustrated in twodimension
space. As a result, the phase portrait consists
of 22 frequently unstable quasicycles which tottality
forms a strange attractor. Quasicycles have quantitative
(length) and quality (configuration) characteristics.
Their combination defines very important characteristic
called trend-stability. Phase analysis is a powerful
form of analysis of time series to assess cyclic
recurrence and is a tool for pre-forecasting analysis.
Fuzzy sets' mathematical apparatus is also used in this
article. An algorithm of formation of fuzzy sets' quasicycles'
length is also presented here. Quasicycles' statistics
are presented in tables, geometric patterns and in
the form of fuzzy sets