Scientific Journal of KubSAU

Polythematic online scientific journal
of Kuban State Agrarian University
ISSN 1990-4665
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Name

Lutsenko Yevgeniy Veniaminovich

Scholastic degree


Academic rank

professor

Honorary rank

Organization, job position

Kuban State Agrarian University
   

Web site url

lc.kubagro.ru

Email

prof.lutsenko@gmail.com


Articles count: 246

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2759 kb

SIMULATING AND PREDICTING GLOBAL CLIMATIC ANOMALIES SUCH AS EL NINO AND LA NINA

abstract 1101506102 issue 110 pp. 1546 – 1578 30.06.2015 ru 633
The paper discusses the modeling and prediction of the climate of our planet with the use of artificial intelligence AIDOS-X. We have developed a number of semantic information models, demonstrating the presence of the elements of similarity between the motion of the lunar orbit and the displacement of the instantaneous pole of the Earth. It was found that the movement of the poles of the Earth leading to the variations in the magnetic field, seismic events, as well as violations of the global atmospheric circulation and water, and particular to the emergence of episodes such as El Niño and La Niña. Through semantic information models studied some equatorial regions of the Pacific Ocean, as well as spatial patterns of temperate latitudes, revealed their relative importance for the prediction of global climatic disturbances in the tropical and temperate latitudes. The reasons of occurrence of El Niño Modoki and their relationship with the movement of elements of the lunar orbit in the long-term cycles are established. Earlier, we had made a forecast of the occurrence of El Niño episode in 2015. Based on the analysis of semantic models concluded that the expected El Niño classical type. On the basis of the prediction block AIDOS-X calculated monthly evolution scenario of global climate anomalies. In this paper, the analysis of the actual implementation forecast of El Niño since its publication in January 2015 - before June 2015. It is shown that the predicted scenario of climatic anomalies actually realized. Calculations of future climate scenarios with system «Aidos-X» recognition module indicate that further possible abnormal excess temperature indicators of surface ocean waters in regions Nino 1,2 and Nino3,4 for 2015 may be comparable with similar abnormalities in the catastrophic El Niño of 1997-1998.
1876 kb

SIMULATION OF EARTH'S POLES DYNAMICS USING ASK-ANALYSIS

abstract 0991405010 issue 99 pp. 149 – 188 30.05.2014 ru 729
Based on local semantic information models, we have examined the dependence of the dynamics of the displacement of the pole positions of celestial objects. We have also developed and differentiated an analysis of ASK-pole modeling of dynamics within sixty-year cycles of reference points and substantiated reasons for the population inversion and singular states in the dynamics of the pole
3033 kb

SOLVING PROBLEMS OF STATISTICS WITH THE METHODS OF INFORMATION THEORY

abstract 1061502001 issue 106 pp. 1 – 47 28.02.2015 ru 598
The article presents a theoretical substantiation, methods of numerical calculations and software implementation of the decision of problems of statistics, in particular the study of statistical distributions, methods of information theory. On the basis of empirical data by calculation we have determined the number of observations used for the analysis of statistical distributions. The proposed method of calculating the amount of information is not based on assumptions about the independence of observations and the normal distribution, i.e., is non-parametric and ensures the correct modeling of nonlinear systems, and also allows comparable to process heterogeneous (measured in scales of different types) data numeric and non-numeric nature that are measured in different units. Thus, ASC-analysis and "Eidos" system is a modern innovation (ready for implementation) technology solving problems of statistical methods of information theory. This article can be used as a description of the laboratory work in the disciplines of: intelligent systems; knowledge engineering and intelligent systems; intelligent technologies and knowledge representation; knowledge representation in intelligent systems; foundations of intelligent systems; introduction to neuromaturation and methods neural networks; fundamentals of artificial intelligence; intelligent technologies in science and education; knowledge management; automated system-cognitive analysis and "Eidos" intelligent system which the author is developing currently, but also in other disciplines associated with the transformation of data into information, and its transformation into knowledge and application of this knowledge to solve problems of identification, forecasting, decision making and research of the simulated subject area (which is virtually all subjects in all fields of science)
3253 kb

SPECIES IDENTIFICATION OF BEETLES (COLEOPTERA, CARABIDAE) BY USING ASKANALYSIS FOR THEIR IMAGES ON EXTERNAL CONTOURS (GENERALIZATION, ABSTRACTION, CLASSIFICATION AND IDENTIFICATION)

abstract 1191605001 issue 119 pp. 1 – 30 31.05.2016 ru 144
Insects are a major component of natural biocenoses and agrocenoses. One of the largest and most numerous families are ground beetles (Carabidae); their number, according to various estimates, is more than 30,000 species. For Carabidae beetles it is common to have different ways of eating, a place of habitation, occupied layers, seasonal and daily activity. They live both on the surface and in the soil, more rarely on bushes and trees. The types of the family of ground beetles – active beetles with long, thin antennae of uniform thickness, long elytra and long legs, adapted to running. Their sizes vary from a few millimeters to 10 cm. As active predators, ground beetles play a huge practical importance, destroying pests before reaching the last threshold, thereby providing a natural regulation. Based on the fact, that the number of beetles is large, and their sizes are sometimes only a few millimeters, there is a problem of determining the species of these insects (or their identification), therefore it took a special tool, which, on the one hand, facilitate obtaining data about these insects, and on the other hand, would increase their accuracy. This article proposes a new (to this subject area) approach to identify different species of ground beetles along their outer contour with the use of software tools for automated system-cognitive analysis (ASC-analysis) – the universal cognitive analytical system called "Eidos," which is well-proven in the study of other objects. The reason why it was decided to use this system is that normal (standard) identification of ground beetles, have certain disadvantages: the human factor (manifest error in the determination); quite time consuming; the inability to increase the number of criteria to improve the reliability of the model comparison. This article aims to overcome these drawbacks, by the use of universal cognitive analytical system "Eidos", the automated system-cognitive analysis (ASC-analysis). A numerical example is given
325 kb

STABILITY DEPENDENCE OF THE INTEGRAL INFORMATIVENESS ON THE DISTANCE TO SOLAR SYSTEM CELESTIAL BODIES

abstract 0460902012 issue 46 pp. 175 – 201 27.02.2009 ru 4467
In this paper, we investigate the stability dependence of integrated information content on the distance from the celestial bodies of the Solar System, with the change in the extensive pre-cases as the total number of cases, the implementation of the choice of social categories, and the number of categories. It was found that for each celestial body, there is a set of categories in which the depend-dependence of the integrated information content of the distance is determined with the greatest certainty. A model of the gravitational sensitivity, based on the mechanism of hormonal regulation of heat and pressure is discussed.
474 kb

STATEMENT OF PROBLEM AND MODEL PROGNOSIS SYNTHESIS OF GRAINS AND SUPPORT OF DECISION MAKING ON RATIONAL CHOICE OF AGRO TECHNOLOGIES

abstract 0380804006 issue 38 pp. 80 – 100 29.04.2008 ru 3390
Demand to the method of statement of problem is substantiated and degree of known methods correspondence to these demands is determined, the most available method of problem decision is chosen by the substantiated criteria, the essence of chosen problem and the method of its application to decide the problem in view, including synthesis of semantic informational model and evaluation of its adequacy are described in brief as well.
18043 kb

SYNTHESIS AND VERIFICATION OF MULTICRITERIA SYSTEM-COGNITIVE MODEL OF THE GUARDIAN UNIVERSITY RANKING AND ITS APPLICATION FOR THE PROPER EVALUATION OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF RUSSIAN UNIVERSITIES WITH RESPECT TO THE DIRECTION OF PREPARATION

abstract 1071503001 issue 107 pp. 1 – 62 31.03.2015 ru 262
The article is devoted to the solution of the problem which is the fact that on the one hand, the rating of Russian universities is in demand and on the other hand it hasn’t been created yet. The proposed idea of solving the problem consists in the application of domestic licensing of innovative intelligent technologies for these purposes: we have suggested using an automated system-cognitive analysis (ASC-analysis) and its software tools – the intelligent system called "Eidos". These methods are described in detail in this context. It is proposed to consider the possibility of applying these tools on the example of the Guardian University ranking. The article discusses its private criteria (indicators of universities). We specify the sources of data and the methods of their preparation for processing in "Eidos" system. In accordance with ASC-analysis methodology the article describes the installation of "Eidos", the data input into it, and the formalization of the subject area, synthesis and verification of models, their display and use to solve problems of assessment of the Guardian rating for Russian universities and research object modeling. It also discusses the prospects and ways of development of the integrated rating of Russian universities and operation of rating in adaptive mode. We have also specified the limitations of the proposed approach and the prospects of its development
395 kb

SYNTHESIS AND VERIFICATION OF TWO-LEVEL SEMANTIC INFORMATION MODEL OF AGRO INDUSTRIAL HOLDING

abstract 0420808001 issue 42 pp. 1 – 15 14.10.2008 ru 2285
Sense of semantic information model SC- analysis is described on the simple example in the article. Results of synthesis and verification of systems of individual models, entering the two-level semantic information management of agro industrial holding.
1054 kb

SYNTHESIS OF SYSTEM-COGNOTIVE MODELS OF A NATURAL-ECONOMIC SYSTEM, ITS USE FOR FORECASTING AND MANAGEMENT IN GRAIN PRODUCTION (4 part - the research of the object of simulation through the study of its model)

abstract 0901306060 issue 90 pp. 875 – 895 30.06.2013 ru 1033
In this article, the authors have conducted a survey of the system-cognitive model for forecasting and support of decision-making of the choice of agricultural technologies in the production of grain, providing the desired economic, energetic, financial and economic results with high probability
177 kb

SYNTHESIS OF SYSTEMIC COGNITIVE MODEL OF NATURAL ECONOMIC SYSTEM AND ITS USE FOR PREDICTION AND CONTROL IN GRAIN PRODUCTION (Part 1 - statement of the problem)

abstract 0891305089 issue 89 pp. 1288 – 1300 29.05.2013 ru 1285
The article basically formulates the problem of effective forecasting of results and acceptance - making on the choice of agricultural technologies to produce the desired result. We have offered and proved the possi-bility of forecasting and management in grain production through the application of artificial intelligence technologies, in particular - the method of systemic cognitive analysis
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