Scientific Journal of KubSAU

A diversified corporation is a highly complex multivariable dynamic system. The application of classical forecasting methods applied to such objects has encountered a number of difficulties, due to its economic nature. In the article, we substantiate the requirements to the forecasting method; on the basis of these requirements we can select the method and its software tool

The quality of life of the population of the region is an important integral criterion of estimation of efficiency of activity of regional administration. Quality of life is mostly influenced by environmental factors. This article proposes to solve the problem of research of the influence of environmental factors on various aspects of quality of life by using ASC-analysis

Techniques of value analysis and "Direct-costing" are well-known and popular. The ideas and principles of value analysis and the method of "Direct costing" are very similar, if not identical. On the one hand, these ideas are very reasonable, well grounded theoretically and proved its effectiveness in practice. On the other hand, the wide use of these methods is hampered by the difficulty of obtaining large amounts of detailed technological and financial-economic information, as well as the need for careful research by competent professionals, well-versed in substantive subject area. This is the contradiction between the desire to apply the methods of the value analysis and "Direct costing" and difficulty to perform it in practice. This contradiction constitutes a real problem and may often be discouraging and frustrating. In this work, we propose a simple and effective solution to this problem, theoretically well-informed with all the necessary methodological and software tools and widely and successfully tested in practice. The proposed solution is based on two simple ideas: 1) instead of collecting and holding a meaningful large amount of technological and financial-economic information we might apply approaches, pleasant management theory; 2) to create systems for automated control of natural and financial-economic efficiency of expenses we might use the automated system-cognitive analysis and its software tool – an intellectual system called "Eidos". In the name of the specialty 08.00.05 – Economics and national economy management, there are such words: "management of enterprises, branches, complexes, innovation." The use of the term "Management" implies that there is a model that reflects the influence of factors on the object of control, and there is the management system making decisions based on this model. However, as a rule, the dissertations in this field have nothing of this, except only financial and economic calculations. The article proposes an approach based on the control theory, removing this disadvantage

In peach orchards of the Russian humid subtropics, leaf curl is the most dangerous and harmful disease. Due to the high degree of danger from the peach leaf curl, for the first time in this region the main task was to analyze peach leaf curl development on weather conditions. In order to solve the problem, it is proposed to apply a new innovative intellectual technology: automated system-cognitive analysis (ASK-analysis) and its software tools - the “Eidos” system. In order to build the model, based on our own observations and the experience of Russian and foreign colleagues, it was decided to use the following factors: the sum of temperatures above +4 ° C of the current year (for the period from January to April), the sum of temperatures above +4 ° C of the previous year (for the whole year), the sum of precipitation of the current year (for the period from January to April), the sum of precipitation of the previous year (for the whole year), the number of hours of infection (in the current year). It was established that such factors as the number of hours of infection, the sum of temperatures above +4 ° C in April and during the period from January to April, as well as the sum of precipitation in March and April, are the most important in the dynamics of peach leaf curl development and spread. High rates of leaf curl spread and development are caused by the number of hours of infection in the range of 1440 ... 2064 hours, as well as by low air temperatures in March and April (the sum of temperatures above +4 °C – 89,4-240,4° and 283,7-316,7°, respectively) and high air temperatures - in January and February (the sum of temperatures above +4 ° C – 155,3-259,6° and 243,5-280,1°, respectively)

There are three main growth points of modern information technologies: global network and mobile communication, advanced human-machine interfaces, intelligent technologies. As it is known, the system (synergistic) effect is usually observed in multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary researches. This means that an interesting direction of research and development is located at the overlap of these three promising areas, namely: advanced interfaces in the global mobile networks, advanced intelligent interfaces and the application of artificial intelligence technologies in the Internet and mobile communications. In addition, a particularly high relevance goes to the development and application prospective of intelligent interfaces to the Internet and mobile communications. The Internet intellectualities gradually, it turns from non-local storage of large data (big data) in information space that contains meaningful big data, i.e. "great information" (great info), and then in the space of knowledge or "cognitive space" in which most information is actively used to achieve goals (management) and turns into the "great knowledge" (great knowledge). There are more sites devoted to artificial intelligence, free databases for machine learning (UCI, Kaggle, and others) and even on-line intelligent applications, and interfaces used in the Internet are improving. Recently, there was an acquisition of company Oculus, which is the world's leading developer and manufacturer of ammunition of virtual reality by the developer of one of the first global social networking Facebook - Mark Zuckerberg. However, students and scientists still do not notice that open, scalable, interactive, intelligent on-line environment for learning and researches already exists and operates, based on automated system-cognitive analysis (ASC-analysis) and its programmatic Toolkit – intellectual "Eidos" and the author's website. This article is an original presentation and it is designed to familiarize potential users with the capabilities of this environment

The rapidly developing processes in global information development of our society have had a significant impact on education. Recently, in agricultural and other universities the amount of generated and processed pedagogical information has dramatically increased. Spontaneously and purposefully, electronic databases of educational information and educational portals have been created. All these works require a significant investment of time and effort of the teaching staff (PPP) of higher education institutions and a large number of technical experts in the field of information technology; they also require appropriate computer and communications equipment. All this is already an accomplished fact. On the other hand, the question arises about the degree of meaningfulness and expediency of certain aspects of this process in the form in which it is actually carried out, and evaluation of its impact on the mission of the University in General: "Training high-quality professionals", in particular for the regional agro-industrial complex (AIC). Apparently, now this process develops spontaneously, and no one has planned it, considering on the one hand, the costs of various kinds on its implementation and on the other hand - ensuring its effectiveness in achieving the objectives and getting the intended desired results both in physical and valuable forms. The meaning and justification of this process can give only a substantial positive impact on improving the quality of education, and only when it has adequate and reasonable cost. For a reasoned response to these questions, the authors propose to apply the theory of reflexive management active objects, automated system-cognitive analysis (ASC-analysis), functional cost analysis (FCA) and the method of "Direct costing". A foundation for solving the problem: this is a great experience in teaching and research activities, a successful experience of the application of ASC-analysis and the FSA for personnel management; a software tool of ASC-analysis which is an intellectual system called "Eidos" (full open free access)

Automated system-cognitive analysis (ASC-analysis) for images provides automatic identification of specific characteristics of the given images from the color of the pixels and image edges, the synthesis of generalized images of pictures (classes), identifying the most and the least specific image features for the class, determining values of features of images for their differentiation, deletion low-value characteristics (abstraction) from the model, problem solving for quantitative comparison of specific images with generalized images of classes and generalized images of the classes with each other, and objectives of the study of the simulated subject area by studying its model. The work discusses the new features of the ASC-analysis and its implementing intellectual system called "Eidos" for identifying features of images using their spectral analysis, formation of the generalized spectra of classes, the task of comparison of images of specific objects to classes and classes with each other in their spectra. For the first time, it became possible to form the generalized spectra of classes with weights of the colors according to their degree of specificity and unspecific features for classes, and it is not the intensity of the color in the spectrum, but the amount of information in the color on the linking the object with that color to the class. In fact, there is a question of generalization of spectral analysis by using intelligent cognitive technologies and information theory in the spectral analysis. First, everyone is talking about the fact that spectral lines contain information about which element or substance is included in the object, but no one bothered to count what exactly the amount of information is and then use it to determine the composition of the object pattern recognition methods based on the use of this information. Second, spectral analysis is traditionally used to determine the elemental and molecular composition of the object; we propose to use it not only for that, but also to identify any images. A numerical example has been given

In the author's interpretation we consider concepts and methods of science, such as science, knowledge, model, gnosticism and agnosticism, the principle of Ashby, facts, empirical regularity, empirical law, scientific law, and others. We have formulated the main problem of the science, concluding that cognitive abilities of a human are limited and do not provide effective knowledge in a very large volume of data. The solution to this problem is to look at ways of automation of scientific research. Traditionally, we use information-measuring systems and automated systems research (ASNI) for this. However, the mathematical methods used in these systems, impose strict impracticable requirements to the source data, which dramatically reduces the effectiveness and applicability of these systems in practice. Instead of having to submit to the source data impracticable requirements (like the normality of the distribution, absolute accuracy and complete replications of all combinations of values of factors and their full independence and additivity) automated system-cognitive analysis (ASC-analysis) offers (without any pre-processing) to understand the data and thereby convert them into information and then convert this information to knowledge by its application to achieve targets (i.e. for controlling) and for solution for problems of classification, decision support and meaningful empirical research of the modeled subject area. ASC-analysis is a systematic analysis, considered as a method of scientific cognition. This is a highly automated method of scientific knowledge that has its own developed and constantly improving software tool – an intellectual system called "Eidos". The system of "Eidos" has been developed in a generic setting, independent of any domain and can be applied in all subject areas, in which people apply their natural intelligence. The "Eidos" system is a tool of cognition, which greatly increases the possibility of natural intelligence, just like microscopes and telescopes multiply the possibilities of vision (but in this case only if you have this possibility). The study proposes a new view of the models: phenomenological meaningful model, which is currently represented only by systemic cognitive models, and which is currently in the middle between empirical and theoretical knowledge. The system called "Eidos" is considered as a tool of automation of the learning process, providing meaningful synthesis of phenomenological models directly on the basis of empirical data

Classic quantitative measure of the reliability of the models: F-measure by van Rijsbergen is based on counting the total number of correctly and incorrectly classified and not classified objects in the training sample. In multiclass classification systems, the facility can simultaneously apply to multiple classes. Accordingly, when the synthesis of the model description is used for formation of generalized images of many of the classes it belongs to. When using the model for classification, it is determined by the degree of similarity or divergence of the object with all classes, and a true-positive decision may be the membership of the object to several classes. The result of this classification may be that the object is not just rightly or wrongly relates or does not relate to different classes, both in the classical F-measure, but rightly or wrongly relates or does not relate to them in varying degrees. However, the classic F-measure does not count the fact that the object may in fact simultaneously belongs to multiple classes (multicrossover) and the fact that the classification result can be obtained with a different degree of similarity-differences of object classes (blurring). In the numerical example, the author states that with true-positive and true-negative decisions, the module similarities-differences of the object classes are much higher than for false-positive and false-negative decisions. It would therefore be rational to the extent that the reliability of the model to take into account not just the fact of true or false positive or negative decisions, but also to take into account the degree of confidence of the classifier in these decisions. In classifying big data we have revealed a large number of false-positive decisions with a low level of similarity, which, however, in total, contribute to reducing the reliability of the model. To overcome this problem, we propose a L2-measure, in which instead of the sum of levels of similarity we use the average similarity by different classifications. Thus, this work offers measures of the reliability of the models, called L1-measure and the L2 measure, mitigating and overcoming the shortcomings of the F-measures; these measures are described mathematically and their application is demonstrated on a simple numerical example. In the intellectual system called "Eidos", which is a software toolkit for the automated system-cognitive analysis (ASC-analysis), we have implemented all these measures of the reliability of the models: F, L1 and L2

Adequate and effective assessment of the efficiency, effectiveness and quality of scientific activities of specific scientists and research teams is crucial for the information society and society based on knowledge. The solution to this problem is the subject of scientometrics and its purpose. The current stage of development scientometrics differs greatly from its previous appearance in the open as well as paid on-line access to huge amount of detailed data on a large number of indicators on individual authors and on scientific organizations and universities. In the world, there are well-known bibliographic databases: Web of Science, Scopus, Astrophysics Data System, PubMed, MathSciNet, zbMATH, Chemical Abstracts, Springer, Agris, or GeoRef. In Russia, it is primarily the Russian scientific citing index (RSCI). RSCI is a national information-analytical system, accumulating more than 9 million publications of Russian scientists, as well as information about citation of these publications from more than 6,000 Russian journals. There is a lot of data, so-called "Big data". The main primary scientometric indicator (based on which we build all the rest, such as the h-index) is the number of citations of the author's works, placed in the bibliographic database. This number of citations is determined by the software of RSCI using so-called "binding" which is a grammatical analysis and search in databases for works of the author, for relevant links from references in the works of various authors. However, the problem is, as experience shows, that authors make a very large number of simply incorrect and incomplete references in the reference lists, very far from standard. Currently, the software that RSCI uses does not automatically bind these invalid references, and this requires human intervention. But, centrally, to do this is not possible by experts of RSCI because of the huge amount of work, and distributed work for a large number of specialists in the field still requires a centralized moderation. As a result, the work for binding references to the literary sources is very slow and a huge amount of links is unbound. This leads to an underestimation of nanomatrices indicators of both individual authors and research teams that cannot be considered acceptable. The solution to this problem is offered by applying the automated system-cognitive analysis (ASC-analysis) and its programmatic Toolkit – intellectual system called "Eidos". This work provides a numerical example of the intellectual anchor of the real incorrect references to the works of the author on the basis of a small amount of real scientific data that are publicly available free on-line access to the RSCI