Scientific Journal of KubSAU

Forecasting the state of external and internal industry environment by assessing the impact of factors variety and analysis is the basis of the grain subcomplex purposeful development. It is necessary to take into account the integration of the industry into particular region environment, which requires additional consideration of natural factors in the forecast. Theoretical and methodological guidelines which define characteristics of the forecasting in the particular area, are designed to provide justification for that choice. Best results are obtained predicted values found by rapid and short-term models, as in a short period the trend rarely changes its direction and thus changes the value by several times. Forecasting methods can be divided into two major groups: intuitive and formal. As a dynamic system, the market (in particular the grain market) requires the usage of complex methods for forecasting time series of key market indicators. According to our opinion, the optimum method of forecasting the regional grain market conditions is based on the following principles: reliability, systematic analysis, taking into account factors that may have an impact in the long term; validity of the scientific justification i.e. obtaining a similar result when re-modeling of the experimental data; the adequacy of the results obtained after forecasting the experimental data; reliability and accuracy of the forecast assessment for its possible adjustments; cleariness of language, which should be understandable for the decision-makers; planned nature of the forecast