Scientific Journal of KubSAU

The application of classical forecasting methods applied to a diversified corporation faces some certain difficulties, due to its economic nature. Unlike other businesses, diversified corporations are characterized by multidimensional arrays of data with a high degree of distortion and fragmentation of information due to the cumulative effect of the incompleteness and distortion of accounting information from the enterprises in it. Under these conditions, the applied methods and tools must have high resolution and work effectively with large databases with incomplete information, ensure the correct common comparable quantitative processing of the heterogeneous nature of the factors measured in different units. It is therefore necessary to select or develop some methods that can work with complex poorly formalized tasks. This fact substantiates the relevance of the problem of developing models, methods and tools for solving the problem of forecasting the development of diversified corporations. This is the subject of this work, which makes it relevant. The work aims to: 1) analyze the forecasting methods to justify the choice of system-cognitive analysis as one of the effective methods for the prediction of semi-structured tasks; 2) to adapt and develop the method of systemic-cognitive analysis for forecasting of dynamics of development of the corporation subject to the scenario approach; 3) to develop predictive model scenarios of changes in basic economic indicators of development of the corporation and to assess their credibility; 4) determine the analytical form of the dependence between past and future scenarios of various economic indicators; 5) develop analytical models weighing predictable scenarios, taking into account all prediction results with positive levels of similarity, to increase the level of reliability of forecasts; 6) to develop a calculation procedure to assess the strength of influence on the corporation (sensitivity) of its member enterprises; 7) to finalize the software tools the ask analysis to the level of information technology, given its adaptation and development to predict actions in a diversified corporation

Application of classical forecasting methods applied to a diversified corporation faces some certain difficulties, due to its economic nature. Unlike other businesses, diversified corporations are characterized by multidimensional arrays of data with a high degree of distortion and fragmentation of the information due to the cumulative effect of the incompleteness and distortion of accounting information from its enterprises. Under these conditions, the applied methods and tools must have high resolution and to work effectively with large databases with incomplete information, to ensure correct common comparable quantitative processing of the heterogeneous nature of the factors measured in different units. It is therefore necessary to select or develop some methods that can work with poorly formalized complex tasks. This fact substantiates the relevance of the problem of developing models, methods and tools for solving the problem of forecasting the development of diversified corporations. This article compares methods of forecasting and encourages using the ask analysis which has a good theoretical justification for the meaningful interpretation of a knowledge model based on information theory; high accuracy and independence of calculation results of the unit of measurement baseline data through the use of not the correlation matrix, as in statistical systems, and matrices of knowledge. A well-developed and available Toolkit of the ASK-analysis which is an intellectual system called "Eidos" (created by E. V. Lutsenko, 1994) allows, on the basis of fragmented, noisy source data of various nature (numeric, text) to create models of large dimension. The ASK-analysis and the system of "Eidos" have been widely and successfully used in economics, engineering, agriculture, sociology and other fields. These features of the ASK-analysis have led to the fact that it was chosen as the method of forecasting of dynamics of indicators of the corporation

The article presents results of the study to assess the effectiveness of credit funds in interacting agricultural (AES) and processing (PP) agricultural enterprises. The conducted studies are a continuation of the scientific work on the development of mathematical models of interaction of the enterprises of the AES and PP, are shown in the articles [1, 2, 3]. This article presents the authors’ developed set of models of management of credit funds of interacting enterprises of an agroindustrial complex. It includes mathematical models of economic efficiency of agricultural enterprises considering the use of loan funds, as well as the assessment of the maximum amount of interest rate of the loan and the minimum selling prices of units of finished agricultural products; a mathematical model of the economic efficiency of the processing plant taking into account credit obligations of the agricultural enterprise and a model for the calculation of the minimum selling prices of its finished products; a mathematical model of the economic efficiency of the combined entity with all its loans. We have proposed a model to calculate the minimum selling prices of its finished products

In the USSR higher attestation Commission from 1975 to the collapse of the USSR was subordinated not to the Ministry of education and science, but to the Council of Ministers of the USSR directly. However, since then there is a steady trend of gradual reduction of the status of the Commission. Today it is not just included in the Ministry of education, it is just one of the units of one of its structures: the Rosobrnadzor. Reduced status of the HAC inevitably leads to a decline in the status and in the adequacy of scientific degrees assigned as well as scientific ranks. This process of devaluation of traditional academic degrees and titles assigned to the HAC, has reached the point when a few years ago there were abolished salary increments for them. Now, instead of that, every university and research institutes have developed their local, i.e. non-comparable with each other scientometric methods of evaluation of the results of scientific and teaching activities. Despite the diversity of these techniques, there is a common thing among all of them, which is the disproportionate role of the h-index. The value of the Hirsch index starts to play an important role in the protection, when considering competitive cases for positions, as well as in determining the monthly rewards for the results of scientific and teaching activities. By itself, this index is well founded, theoretically. However, in connection with the practice of its application in our conditions, in the collective consciousness of the scientific community there was a kind of mania, which the authors call the "Hirschmania". This mania is characterized by elevated unhealthy interest to the value of the Hirsch index, as well as incorrect manipulation of its value, i.e. inadequate artificial exaggeration of this value, as well as a number of negative consequences of that interest. In this study we have made an attempt to construct a quantitative measure for assessing the extent of improper manipulation of the value of the Hirsch index, and offered a science-based modification of the h-index, insensitive (resistant) to the manipulation. The article presents a technique for all the numerical calculations, which is simple enough for any author to use

A determination system of the population health is a big complex hierarchical system. The current level of management of such systems involves the use of mathematical models and corresponding software tools for the accumulation of baseline data (monitoring), identification, prediction and decision-making. However, when modeling such large complex systems, we face a number of problems. The main problem is that in one model it is necessary to process a very large number of factors in a proper and comparable way, that are measured in different units, and different types of scales (numeric and text). Traditionally, to solve this problem and determine the values of individual criteria we use expert evaluation and desirability functions, and the integral criterion is the geometric mean. However, the traditional approach, currently applied in this field, has several disadvantages. First, in the traditional model it is defined in an expert way, which factors influence the decision of different problems in a positive way, which ones are negative and which ones do not affect. Second, for the numerical evaluation of influence factors on the solution of the problem we use different algorithms for calculating values of the desirability function for positively and negatively influencing factors which, when used as an integral criterion of the geometric average, leads to comparable results. Third, the use of normalized utility functions leads to the leveling force of the impact factors resulting in weak impact and the influencing factors are given the same variation in numeric values and have similar influence on integral criteria. All of the mentioned problems of the traditional approach have been resolved using Automated system-cognitive analysis (ASC-analysis) and its programmatic Toolkit – Universal cognitive analytical system called "Eidos". In the proposed systemic cognitive model, for the values of environmental and economic factors, without the participation of the experts, we have calculated the amount and the sign of the information contained there about some values of indicators of population health

In complex multiparameter technical systems there are numerous and varied physical processes which, on the one hand, have a significant impact on the performance of those systems, and on the other hand, it is extremely difficult amenable to description in the form of meaningful analytical models based on equations, because these models must take into account the specific features of the systems. As a consequence, the development of conceptual analytical models is a "hand-made work" and it is associated with a large number of simplifying assumptions that reduce their versatility and reliability. But there is also another principle of modeling: the construction of phenomenological information models, i.e. models that do not have analytical forms of representation that describes the simulated system superficially as a "black box". Such models can be built directly based on empirical data and with the appropriate software it can be a standard technology much faster and much less time consuming than developing meaningful analytical models. On the other hand, the phenomenological information model can be sufficient to determine the rational design features and parameters of the modes of operation of complex technical systems. Besides, such phenomenological models can be viewed as the first stage in the development of meaningful analytical models. It is proposed to use a new universal innovative method of artificial intelligence for creating phenomenological models of complex technical systems: automated system-cognitive analysis (ASC-analysis) and its programmatic Toolkit which is a universal cognitive analytical system called "Eidos". In the system of "Eidos" we have implemented a software interface that provides direct input into the system large amounts of empirical data from an Excel file. The system of "Eidos" can directly (based on empirical (experimental) data) calculate how much information about the results of the technical systems is contained in the facts of possessing certain specific structural elements and certain values of the parameters modes of its work. On this basis, the system provides research-based and appropriate recommendations for the rational choice of design features and parameters of the operation modes of the simulated system

It is well known that genetics studies the mechanisms of variation/heredity and widely uses the concept of "genetic information". While genetics considers the information as the content of the genetic code - structure of DNA and RNA included in the cell of a living organism. Genetics examines the mechanisms of recording, copying, readout of genetic information, the possibility of its modification and its influence on the characteristics and properties of the organism. In conversational and scientific language we know phrases, such as "Genes contain information about the characteristics/properties of the body." Paradoxically, we see no attempts to determine the amount of information contained in specific genes on specific characteristics or phenotypic properties of the organism. It would seem that the application of information theory in genetics is a completely natural and suggests itself. More strange that there are practically no works devoted to the application of information theory for solving problems of genetics. This article is intended, to some extent, to fill this gap on the example of calculating the amount of information in the genes of the characteristics or properties of different grape varieties. It examines the application of automated system-cognitive analysis (ASC-analysis), its mathematical model – system of information theory and software tools – intellectual system called "Eidos" for solving one of the important tasks of genetics: determine the amount of information contained in the genes on various phenotypic characteristics/properties of the grapes. To solve this problem, we perform the following steps: 1) cognitive-targeted structuring of the subject area; 2) the formalization of the subject area, i.e. development of classification and descriptive dials and graduations and training samples; 3) synthesis and verification of information model, reflecting the amount of information in the genes on the phenotypic characteristics/properties (multiparameter typing); 4) displaying the information about the genetic determination system of phenotypic characteristics/properties (SWOT analysis of Fennovoima); 5) displaying the information about the strength and direction of influence of a specific gene on phenotypic characteristics/properties (SWOT-diagrams of genes); 6) the solution to the problem of system identification phenotypic characteristics/properties by the presence of certain genes; 7) quantification of the similarities-differences of the various phenotypic characteristics/properties, upon determination system genes. A specific phenotypic property (or characteristic) is regarded as a noisy genetic text, including genetic information about the true gene property (clean signal) and the noise that distorts this information due to the random effects of the environment. The software tool of the ask-analysis which is "Eidos" intellectual system provides the noise suppression and the selection of true signal

From a huge number of the organisms inhabiting our planet, insects make 70%, being the most numerous of the invertebrate animal classes numbering more than 2 million types. It is difficult to find such place where it would be impossible to meet representatives of this huge class. They completely took over the entire environment - water, the land, air. For them, it is the common characteristic: complex instincts, omnivorous, high fecundity, and for some of them – a public way of life. Insects can be found at tremendous heights, reaching the level of 5000 meters, and they inhabit the desert where it practically never rains, not to mention the absence of any vegetation. Deep caves where no sunlight, nor the conditions for food and existence of living organisms — it is also the habitat of insects, they can be found far beyond the Arctic circle, and even on many Islands of Antarctica, where in addition to lifeless rock, it would seem that there is nothing else. Among insects, one of the largest and most numerous families are the ground beetles (Carabidae). They subtly respond to changes in soil and vegetation, hydrothermal and micro-climatic conditions of the environment, which makes them a convenient model subject to various environmental and Zoological researches. Ground beetles belong to a large number of genera and species, often difficult to see, in this regard, we use many different signs to diagnose. We have taken into consideration the coloration, body shape, external structure, surface structure, size, and arrangement of the genitals and chaetotaxy. Due to the fact, that the number of ground beetles is enormous, and, using their appearance, it is very difficult to determine their generic identity, there is a need of automation of the identification process, due to which we require a special mechanism that would increase the accuracy of these insects. In the previous work of the authors (http://ej.kubagro.ru/2016/05/pdf/01.pdf) we considered the further possibility of using the method of ASC- analysis to classify insects, not only in species but also in genera, orders, thereby increasing the reliability of determination of ground beetles, which will be done in this article. A numerical example is given. We also have gained a successful experience of solving such problems in other subject areas. This article can be considered as a continuation of the series of works dedicated to governmental use of the automated system-cognitive analysis (ASC-analysis) and its software tools – the system of "Eidos"

The work discusses various examples of physical systems which state is determined by the logarithmic law - quantum and classical statistical systems and relativistic motion in multidimensional spaces. It was established that the Fermi-Dirac statistics and BoseEinstein-Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution could be described by a single equation, which follows from Einstein's equations for systems with central symmetry. We have built the rate of emergence of classical and quantum systems. The interrelation between statistical and dynamic parameters in supergravity theory in spaces of arbitrary dimension was established. It is shown that the description of the motion of a large number of particles can be reduced to the problem of motion on a hypersphere. Radial motion in this model is reduced to the known distributions of quantum and classical statistics. The model of angular movement is reduced to a system of nonlinear equations describing the interaction of a test particle with sources logarithmic type. The HamiltonJacobi equation was integrated under the most general assumptions in the case of centrally-symmetric metric. The dependence of actions on the system parameters and metrics was found out. It is shown that in the case of fermions the action reaches extremum in fourdimensional space. In the case of bosons there is a local extremum of action in spaces of any dimension

The authors have developed and manufactured a large number of different designs of relative helical drums for mixing animal feed. We have conducted 749 field experiments with the drums of the 10 different designs with different parameters modes of operation. In all experiments, we measured the quality of the feed mixture. However, directly based on empirical data, rational choice of design features and parameters of the operation modes of the reels is not possible. For this, you must first develop a model reflecting these empirical data. The construction of meaningful analytical models of different types of drums is a difficult and demanding scientific task, the complexity of which is due to the large variety and complexity of forms of drums and their mode of usage, a large number of diverse physical factors affecting the processes in the drum. As a consequence, the development of analytical models associated with a large number of simplifying assumptions that reduce their versatility and reliability. Therefore, it is important to search of a mathematical method and software tools provide a quick and simple for the user to identify and influence the design of the drum and the parameters of the operating modes on the quality of the feed mixture directly on the basis of empirical (experimental) data. The work proposes a solution to this problem with the use of a new universal innovative method of artificial intelligence: automated system-cognitive analysis (ASC-analysis) and its programmatic Toolkit – universal cognitive analytical system called "Eidos". In the system of "Eidos" we have implemented a software interface that provides direct input into the system large amounts of empirical data from Excel file. Created on their basis in the system of "Eidos" system-cognitive model allows the visual form to reflect the effect of the structure of the drum and the parameters of the operating modes on the quality of the resulting feed mixture and to develop on this basis the science-based and appropriate recommendations for the rational choice of design features and parameters of the modes relative to the screw drums. We have also given a numerical example