Scientific Journal of KubSAU

In this article, in accordance with the methodology of the Automated system-cognitive analysis (ASCanalysis), we examine the implementation of the 3rd ASC-analysis: synthesis and verification of forecasting models of development of diversified agro-industrial corporations. In this step, we have synthesis and verification of 3 statistical and 7 system-cognitive models: ABS – matrix of the absolute frequencies, PRC1 and PRC2 – matrix of the conditional and unconditional distributions, INF1 and INF2 private criterion: the amount of knowledge based on A. Kharkevich, INF3 – private criterion: the Chi-square test: difference between the actual and the theoretically expected absolute frequencies INF4 and INF5 – private criterion: ROI - Return On Investment, INF6 and INF7 – private criterion: the difference between conditional and unconditional probability (coefficient of relationship). The reliability of the created models was assessed in accordance with the proposed metric is similar to the known F-test, but does not involve the performance of normal distribution, linearity of the object modeling, the independence and additivity acting factors. The accuracy of the obtained models was high enough to resolve the subsequent problems of identification, forecasting and decision making, as well as studies of the modeled object by studying its model, scheduled for consideration in future articles

The article presents results of developing the template architecture for an enterprise of public catering. As a prototype for the template, we have selected the restaurant called Phoenix. The development pattern of architecture was based on the typical features of public catering establishments described in the business model. The main results of the study are: generalized business model, built on the method developed by A. Osterwalder, graphical layout of business processes, implemented in the tool environment, All Fusion Process Modeler (BPWin) and developed models of decomposition of business processes, model business event, the location of the model functions, integration model, models, data architecture, class diagram, application portfolio and technology infrastructure. The architecture of a company of public catering may serve as a template for other businesses whose business model matches the business model of the research object. We have developed a tree of objectives and functions, the model of the enterprise, the data architecture, technology infrastructure and application portfolio are typical for the industry. The results of the study have practical value and can be used by the industry as at the design stage and improvement

In the article we present a spatial structure of largescale transport systems. The model of a transport network can be presented in the form of a graph, with a set of the nodes corresponding to elements of a network and a set of edges – to sections of roads the connecting these nodes. As the model of a card of roads, it is offered to use prefractal graphs which naturally reflect structure of communications when reviewing a transport network in different scales (the states, regions, areas). Prefractal graphs allow describing structural dynamics of the studied system in the discrete time. One of the most widespread scenarios of structural dynamics is the growth of structure. The statement of tasks of the organization of transport routes contains requirements criteria to finding of optimal solutions. Often these requirements and criteria are contradicting each other. It leads to appearance of a multicriteria problem definition. The multicriteria problem definition on a class of prefractal graphs is considered. The optimum algorithm of separation of the greatest maximum paths by the given criterion is constructed and estimates by remaining criteria are given. In operation computing complexity of the constructed algorithm of separation of the greatest maximum paths on a prefractal graph is calculated and advantage of operation of algorithm on last before algorithm of separation of the greatest maximum paths on normal graphs is justified. The constructed algorithm on prefractal graphs has polynomial complexity

This article describes the opportunities and prospects for the deployment of decision support system for the adequacy of the level of lending to small agricultural enterprises in the cloud environment. It reveals the shortcomings in the existing automation of small businesses, and therefore the necessity of developing a system to enable managers to quickly and correctly calculate the amount of required loan funds. The developed system has the ability to work remotely due to the lack of binding the user to a specific personal computer. It is implemented through the development of a DSS using cloud computing, in which computer resources are provided to the Internet users in the form of "online service". The article describes the architecture of popular models and cloud Webapplications; after that, it was concluded to use the Saas model with Multi-Tenant-mode support in the model development. The study provides an overview of the DSS functioning in the cloud. It has noted the main features of the software implementation of the system relating to the use of cloud technologies. We have calculated the cost of placing an application in the cloud via the online cost calculator called Microsoft Azure. We have also performed a preliminary assessment of the payback period of the project implementation of DSS. It is concluded, that this technology would be competitive at the software market

In the article, we perform an analysis of socioeconomic activities of consumer cooperation of the Krasnodar region. The result was determined by actual range of problems of development of the existing system. One of the key sectors of activity of consumer cooperation is the bakery, where today there is an unstable situation. Interviewing the managers and employees of the Regional Union of Consumer Societies of Krasnodar, enterprises of the bakery of the system allowed us to determine that the main reason for this situation is a poorly developed strategy of development. To develop recommendations for strategic development of the baking industry of consumer cooperatives we have conducted a SWOTanalysis based on identifying strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, assessment of potential opportunities and threats and structuring strengths and weaknesses. Quantitative evaluation of factors in the matrix of SWOT-analysis experts were conducted by involving practitioners and scientists in related fields. The processing of research results was carried out with the use of the instrumental medium called "extended SWOT matrix 1.0". As a result, the research has conclusions and gives recommendations for the use of the strengths of enterprises to overcome the possible threats, use the opportunities to strengthen weaknesses. The proposed creation of a single logistics system that will have a positive impact on the consolidation and expansion of assortment and the range of services provided, improve the product, change advertising technologies, build your brand, will allow us to enter new markets, increase production volumes of enterprises of bakery industries of system of consumer cooperation of the Krasnodar region

The article presents the basic concepts, classification of SCM systems and the field of application of this management technology. The analysis of the international and Russian market SCM-systems, allowed us to choose the five most popular alternative information systems of this class. For the procedure of selection of the information system have been developed criteria, oriented to the demands of corporate integrated structures. For each criterion there was determined a value coefficient. This stage of research was carried out with the involvement of heads of corporate integrated structures, experts in the field of it and scientists of Kuban state agrarian University. As a result of the assessment, we have chosen an information system called "SAP SCM EWM" with the highest number of points. The study of the functional information system was carried out by building a complex chart of precedents (the modeling language UML, tool Microsoft Visual Studio 2012). Generalization of experience of consulting and analytical companies allowed to allocate the main stages of implementation for SCM systems and to develop recommendations for their implementation. The study has practical value for the integrated corporate structures from the standpoint of managerial decision-making of choosing an information system of type SCM and introducing it into their operations

The article presents the architecture of decision support system for the adequacy of the level of lending to small agricultural companies, which implements in its functionality the complex of models: the optimization of selling price of products, the efficiency mark for using of credit funds of single-product and multi-product companies by determined and fuzzy methods, assessment of the system stability of the enterprise. The system has the ability to work remotely using cloud computing, in which computing resources provided by the Internet users in the form of "online service". The article substantiates the need for the development of decision support systems for the adequacy of the level of lending to small agricultural enterprises. We have compiled requirements for the development of an appropriate system and identified a set of models to be implemented in the DSS , described the relationship between them and the technique of working with them. We have also defined names of the input and output data at various stages of working with the DSS as well as the generalized algorithm of the system. Based on the above, the article proposes and describes the architecture of decision support system. It is concluded, that the DSS is an interactive automated system that uses a model of decision-making, providing users with efficient access to data and provides them with a variety of opportunities to display information

To develop detailed and effective business model of bakery enterprises of consumer cooperation it is necessary to have knowledge on strategic goods displayed on a busy segment of the market, not only in volumetric terms, but in the parameters that characterize the stability of sales or consumption. The particular relevance of this study reveals in modern conditions of functioning. The outcome of the baking enterprises of consumer cooperatives is more than 760 tons per day, distributed between 41 baking enterprise producing more than 300 kinds of products. Of course, the information on quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the strategic positions of the range will be a key in making managerial decisions about the production of the program, resourcing, turnover, etc. To solve the problem we have chosen the method of ABC - and XYZ-analysis of assortment of production, based on the criteria of ease of use and breadth of the resulting information. As a result of the application of the methods of ABC and XYZ-analysis and combining the obtained results, we present a classification of the range of the baking enterprises of consumer cooperation product based on the criteria of the contribution of commodity positions in revenue and stability of sales

The article describes the synthesis and verification of statistical and system-cognitive models of the influence of environmental factors on the quality of life of the population of the region. This stage of the ASC-analysis is performed in the system called "Eidos". As a result, we have created and validated (verification stage) all the specified systemic cognitive models. It is expected that reliability for the models of knowledge is sufficiently high for a given subject area, that is why we can state the discovery of a dependence of life expectancy and causes of death from environmental conditions. Typically, knowledge models are approximately 20% higher in accuracy than statistical models, which operate on the principle of positive pseudo-prediction. Making decisions based on the model of Abs (matrix of absolute frequencies) is not appropriate because of the different number of instances of classes (generalized categories) and dependence of the solutions of this amount. In the model called Prc2 (conditional and unconditional percentage distribution) the dependence of the model values of the number of examples in classes has been removed, but the accuracy of it is usually same low as in the Abs. In addition, for decision-making based on this model, one has to compare the values of conditional and unconditional probabilities manually, which is laborious and hardly possible for large dimensional models. The knowledge model called Inf3, based on a measure similar to the Chi-square, is the result of the automated comparison of values of conditional and unconditional probabilities presented in the model of Prc1, which is similar to Prc2, and usually has a fairly high accuracy, especially considering the high complexity of the subject area, which we simulated. Therefore, in accordance with the technology of the ASC-analysis data conversion into information, and afterwards - into knowledge, it is the model of Inf3 which is planned to be used for the solution of problems of identification, forecasting, decision-making and exploring the modeled subject area, through the study of its models

In this article, in accordance with the methodology of SC analysis, we consider particular implementation stages of the synthesis of the numerical model and its analysis. We have also presented the results of the determination of the different states of the processing complex function of various factors on these states and their classification, as well as semantic networks and cognitive class diagrams and factors. On the basis of the analysis we made specific findings and recommendations for decision making at the management level of the region. After execution of the stages of cognitive structuring and formalization of the subject area the further stages of automated SC analysis have been accomplished, the first of which is the phase of the input database of precedents. All these steps are performed directly using "Eidos" universal cognitive analytical system