Name
Reymer Valerii Viktorovich
Scholastic degree
•
Academic rank
associated professor
Honorary rank
—
Organization, job position
Dalnevostochniy state agrarian university
Web site url
Articles count: 1
This article explains the relevance of evaluation of
agricultural growth, which can be achieved through
the implementation of agricultural sectors’ innovative
potential. The opportunities of agricultural growth are
defined by the set of macroeconomic, sectoral and
regional factors as well as the type of enterprises that
have different levels of innovative susceptibility. The
authors give an overview of the main methods of social
and economic forecasting and justify the choice of
the ARIMA (Autoregressive integrated moving average)
as a tool for forecasting regional development of
agriculture. The article presents the experts’ estimatesbased
values of integrated indicators of agricultural
exogenous factors and the ARIMA-parameters based
on the use of these indicators for time series prediction
of agricultural production in the Amur region. The
authors conclude that the time series ARIMA-model
of the gross agricultural production, taking into account
the influence of innovation potential factors,
demonstrate a good approximation to the Amur region
data. This article also compares the forecasts of agricultural
production on inertial and innovative scenario
for the Amur region, and provides an estimation of
innovation potential growth of the agricultural branches