The article presents a technique of short-term
forecasting of water level in the river bed of a
mountain type using Markov’s chains
For the first time we have developed a general additive-multiplicative model of the risk estimation (to estimate the probabilities of risk events). In the two-level system in the lower level the risk estimates are combined additively, on the top – in a multiplicative way. Additive-multiplicative model was used for risk estimation for (1) implementation of innovative projects at universities (with external partners), (2) the production of new innovative products, (3) the projects for creation of rocket and space equipmen
In the article, the algorithm – a recurrent formula for calculation of determinants of prefractal graphs with the full primers, keeping old edges contiguity in a trajectory was received
The article is dedicated to a numerical investigation of
a plane problem of the oscillation amplitude of a
buried source, depending on the frequency and motion
speed in various isotropic media. Three types of the
medium are considered: a two-layer package with a
rigidly fixed base, a two-layer package with a
mechanically free base, a half-space. The source, in the
form of a stress jump simulating a rigid inclusion of
small dimensions, moves in the interface plane at a
constant speed. Homogeneous boundary value
problems are considered in a moving coordinate
system associated with a source. The solution method
is based on the usage of integral Fourier transforms,
the method of direct contour integration and
algorithms for constructing symbols of Green's
matrices. The method of direct contour integration
significantly simplifies calculations in comparison
with the traditional approaches to the calculation of
Fourier integrals. We have presented calculations of
nine amplitude-frequency and amplitude-velocity
characteristics for different combinations of medium
and source types, that give an exhaustive qualitative
and quantitative description of the solutions for
boundary value problems in a wide range of velocities
and frequencies. Comparative analysis of calculations
showed a primary influence of the type of an elastic
medium on the investigated characteristics, as well as
the large influence of the source type. Which, in turn,
revealed some substantial connections between the
boundary value problems with a moving source and
the corresponding problems with a stationary source
Classical combinatorial formula to calculate the number
of combinations from n on m: C(n,m)=n!/(m!(nm)!)
involves the intermediate calculation of factorials,
which is often impossible when n>170, due to limitations
in the capacity of numbers that are used in programming
languages and created through these systems.
However, in some cases it is necessary to calculate
the number of combinations for n and m much
larger than this limit, such as when a value greater than
10000. In such cases, there is a definite problem,
which manifests itself, for example in the fact that
many on-line services meant to calculate the number
of combinations with these parameters do not work
properly. In this article, we present its solution in the
form of an algorithm and software implementation.
The essence of the approach is to first decompose the
factorials into prime factors and reduce them, and then
to produce multiplication. This approach differs from
those cited in the Internet
The article analyses well-known approaches to the explanations of Kolmogorov's conditions for probabilities studied in applications. It discusses better-founded explanations, offers and looks into new
approaches to the explanations of connectedness of the conditions
In various applications it is necessary to analyze
some expert orderings, ie clustered rankings of
examination objects. These areas include technical
studies, ecology, management, economics, sociology,
forecasting, etc. The objects may make samples of
the products, technologies, mathematical models,
projects, job applicants and others. We obtain
clustered rankings which can be both with the help
of experts and objective way, for example, by
comparing the mathematical models with
experimental data using a particular quality criterion.
The method described in this article was developed
in connection with the problems of chemical safety
and environmental security of the biosphere. We
propose a new method for constructing a clustered
ranking which can be average (in the sense,
discussed in this work) for all clustered rankings
under our consideration. Then the contradictions
between the individual initial rankings are contained
within clusters average (coordinated) ranking. As a
result, ordered clusters reflects the general opinion
of the experts, more precisely, the total that is
contained simultaneously in all the original
rankings. Newly built clustered ranking is often
called the matching (coordinated) ranking with
respect to the original clustered rankings. The
clusters are enclosed objects about which some of
the initial rankings are contradictory. For these
objects is necessary to conduct the new studies.
These studies can be formal mathematics
(calculation of the Kemeny median, orderings by
means of the averages and medians of ranks, etc.) or
these studies require involvement of new information
from the relevant application area, it may be
necessary conduct additional scientific research. In
this article we introduce the necessary concepts and
we formulate the new algorithm of construct the
coordinated ranking for some cluster rankings in
general terms, and its properties are discussed
In the article an effective system of an estimation of a financial and economic status of the factories of a building sector of Krasnodar region (Armavir district), based on use of methods of the multidimensional statistical analysis is introduced. The programmatic complex "FAP-stroi", including MS Excel plug-in, macros of «Statistica 6» and exterior processing of «1С: Enterprise 8» is built
This article gives a comparative analysis of six modeling techniques of fractal differential noise, including: direct definition method, the method of Hosking, the method of Davis and Hart's, the circulant embedding method, Paxson method and method of spectral simulation. Furthermore, the algorithms are given for the analysis and the method of estimation of Hurst`s parameter is selected, this method is the main criterion of quality when comparing the above mentioned methods of fractal differential noise
ANALYSIS OF THE PROCESSES CAUSED THE MAGNETIC FIELD INFLUENCE ON A STRUCTURE AND PROPERTIES OF WATER
The scientific publications review about a magnetic field influence on cluster sizes and their concentration was carried out. These structural changes are attended by the water system physicochemical properties changes. For example, the surface tension coefficient changes. It is shown, that the conductivity and the dielectric constant of water change in a weak magnetic field.
It is provided, that characteristics of water activated by a magnetic field can save in a significant time