#### Name

Orlov Alexander Ivanovich

#### Scholastic degree

•

•

•

#### Academic rank

professor

#### Honorary rank

â€”

#### Organization, job position

Bauman Moscow State Technical University

#### Web site url

â€”

## Articles count: 120

We have proposed the general scheme for studying the stability of the conclusions obtained by mathematical methods and models regarding tolerance deviations of the original data and background models. The concrete problems of stability are discussed: towards a change of data, its size and distributions, to allowable transformations measurement scales, to the temporal characteristics (time of start of the project, the planning horizon). Reducing the uncertainty can be conducted by changing the type of data, i.e. with the aid of the transition to non-numerical data.
The models of concrete management processes of industrial organizations are considered on the examples of stability characteristics of investment projects to change the discount factors and in models of inventory management to change in the coefficients of the model and batch size production

Adequate and effective assessment of the efficiency, effectiveness and the quality of scientific activities of specific scientists and research teams is crucial for any information society and a society based on knowledge. The solution to this problem is the subject of scientometrics and its purpose. The current stage of development scientometrics differs greatly from his previous appearance in the open as well as paid on-line access to huge amount of detailed data on a large number of indicators on individual authors and on scientific organizations and universities. The world has well-known bibliographic databases: Web of Science, Scopus, Astrophysics Data System, PubMed, MathSciNet, zbMATH, Chemical Abstracts, Springer, Agris, or GeoRef. In Russia, it is primarily the Russian scientific citing index (RSCI). RSCI is a national information-analytical system, accumulating more than 9 million publications of Russian scientists, as well as the information about citation of these publications from more than 6,000 Russian journals. There is too much information; it is so-called "Big data". But the problem is how to make sense of these large data, more precisely, to identify the meaning of scientometric indicators) and thus to convert them into great information ("great information"), and then apply this information to achieve the objective of scientometrics, i.e. to transform it into a lot of knowledge ("great knowledge") about the specific scientists and research teams. The solution to this problem is creating a "Scientific smart metering system" based on the use of the automated system-cognitive analysis and its software tools â€“ an intellectual system called "Eidos". The article provides a numerical example of the creation and application of Scientometric intelligent measurement system based on a small amount of real scientific data that are publicly available using free on-line access to the RSCI

We have selected the new area of controlling - scientific activity controlling. We consider some problems of development in this field, primarily the problem of selection of key performance indicators. Itâ€™s been founded that administrative measures stimulated the pursuit of a number of articles published in scientific journals hinders the development of science. Methodological errors - emphasis on citation indexes, impact factors, etc. - lead to wrong management decisions. As the experience of the UK, an expertise should be applied in the management of science. The article briefly discusses some of the drawbacks of the system of scientific specialties. It is proposed to expand research on the science of science and scientific activity controlling. We have also discussed the problems of controlling in applied research organizations

Based on an objective analysis, it must be noted that
in the arsenal of managers, especially foreign ones,
there is practically no fundamentally new methods
and tools. However, promising mathematical and
instrumental methods of controlling actively
developed in our country. In the XXI century it
developed a new paradigm of mathematical methods
of economics and produced more than 10 books,
developed in accordance with this paradigm. The
new paradigm is based on the modern development
of mathematics as a whole - on the system interval
fuzzy math. The new paradigm offers tools used
non-parametric statistics, which suggest that the
distribution functions are arbitrary. In 1979 it was
allocated one of the four major areas of modern
applied statistics - statistics of objects of nonnumeric
nature (statistics of non-numeric data, nonnumeric
statistics). The other three - statistics of
random variables, multivariate statistical analysis,
statistics of random processes and time series.
Statistics of objects of non-numeric nature is central
to the modern mathematical methods of economics.
On the basis of modern information-communication
technologies we have developed a new economic
theory - solidary information economy. New
intellectual tools of controlling include an
automated system-cognitive analysis (ASA) and its
software - the system of "Eidos". The systems
approach to solving specific applications often
requires going beyond the economy. Very important
are the procedures for the introduction of innovative
methods and tools

About thirty-five years ago, the statistics of non-numerical objects was highlighted as an independent field of mathematical statistics. This article analyzes the basic ideas in this area, and relevant publications on the background of the development of applied statistics, and in connection with the system fuzzy interval mathematics

The problem of controlling a large-scale agroindustrial
system, which should be solved in the
process of organizing agricultural production, is
considered. It is shown, that the scientific and
methodological apparatus of the service subsystem
controlling such an object should be expanded in
comparison with ordinary enterprises of agroindustrial
production. The article considers a new
approach to the theory of management of large-scale
socio-economic systems, based on a solidary
information economy. Its main ideas are analyzed,
its use as a basic organizational and economic
theory instead of "economics" is justified.
According to the solidary information economy,
modern information technologies and decisionmaking
theory make it possible to build information
and communication system based on an "open
network society" designed to identify people's needs
and organize production in order to meet them.
Predecessors - V.M. Glushkov, Anthony Stafford
Beer, W. P. Cockshott, A. F. Cottrell and others.
The main content of the research is the forecasting
of the development of the future society and its
economy, the development of organizational and
economic methods and models designed to enhance
the effectiveness of management processes. As an
economic component of the state ideology of
Russia, we propose to use a solidary information
economy. The organizational and economic theory
of Russia's innovative development should be based
on a solidary information economy

Of the many urgent problems of Science about
Science, we consider methods for estimation of the
effectiveness and quality of the scientific activities
of the researcher, of the organization, of the
magazine. Performance indicators of scientific
activity are used as an important part in the
estimation of higher education institutions, the
innovative capacity of enterprises, etc. To estimate
the effectiveness of scientific activity is natural to
use intellectual tools which are well-established in
other subject areas. This will include, in particular,
the balanced scorecard, based on key performance
indicators (hence the title of this article), as well as
controlling, primarily controlling of research
activities. There are two more developed and
widely used tools for estimation the effectiveness
of the scientific activity - the scientometric
indicators and the expert estimators. Their critical
analysis is the subject of this article. Different
versions of manipulating of values of scientometric
indicators in the Russian Federation, in our
estimation, are still relatively rare. Perhaps this is
due to the relatively short period of their use in the
management of science. Since an indicator such as
citation index (the number of citations of
publications) of researcher, allows estimating its
contribution to science, the use of this
scientometric indicator for the management of
science is justified. At the same time, the number
of publications and especially h-index is not
possible to objectively estimate the effectiveness of
research activities, particularly in view of the
properties of the real bibliometric databases. Expert
procedures have several disadvantages. In this
article we discuss the real effectiveness of expert
procedures in the areas of their application, as
conferring academic degrees and elections to the
National Academy of Sciences (primarily in the
Russian Academy of Sciences). The basic
principles of expertise in these areas remain the
same for the past 70 years. Based on an analysis of
practice it is necessary to ascertain the lack of
efficacy of expert estimators in these areas.
Rationale to what has been said is given in the
article

The purpose of the article - to justify the need to develop the methodology of statistical methods as an independent scientific direction. The models of mathematician and applied specialist are presented. We have obtained the conclusions on teaching and
research and discussed five major unsolved problems of statistical methods: the effect of deviations from the traditional prerequisites; use asymptotic results for finite sample sizes; selecting one of the many specific tests for the hypothesis; organization of theoretical work in the field of statistical methods; conduct applied research and teaching of statistical methods

In 2011 â€“ 2015, the scientific community was
represented by a new paradigm of mathematical
methods of research in the field of organizational
and economic modeling, econometrics and statistics.
There was a talk about a new paradigm of applied
statistics, mathematical statistics, mathematical
methods of economics, the analysis of statistical and
expert data in problems of economics and
management. We consider it necessary to develop
organizational and economic support for solving
specific application area, such as the space industry,
start with a new paradigm of mathematical methods.
The same requirements apply to the teaching of the
respective disciplines. In the development of
curricula and working programs, we must be based
on a new paradigm of mathematical methods of
research. In this study, we present the basic
information about a new paradigm of mathematical
methods of research. We start with a brief
formulation of a new paradigm. The presentation in
this article focuses primarily on the scientific field
of "Mathematical and instrumental methods of
economy", including organizational and economic
and economic-mathematical modeling, econometrics
and statistics, and decision theory, systems analysis,
cybernetics, operations research. We discuss the
basic concepts. We talk about the development of a
new paradigm. We carry out a detailed comparison
of the old and the new paradigms of mathematical
methods of research. We give information about the
educational literature, prepared in accordance with
the new paradigm of mathematical methods of
researches

For the first time we have developed a general additive-multiplicative model of the risk estimation (to estimate the probabilities of risk events). In the two-level system in the lower level the risk estimates are combined additively, on the top â€“ in a multiplicative way. Additive-multiplicative model was used for risk estimation for (1) implementation of innovative projects at universities (with external partners), (2) the production of new innovative products, (3) the projects for creation of rocket and space equipmen