Scientific Journal of KubSAU

Polythematic online scientific journal
of Kuban State Agrarian University
ISSN 1990-4665
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Name

Orlov Alexander Ivanovich

Scholastic degree




Academic rank

professor

Honorary rank

Organization, job position

Bauman Moscow State Technical University
   

Web site url

Email

prof-orlov@mail.ru


Articles count: 120

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296 kb

A NEW APPROACH TO THE STUDY OF THE STABILITY OF CONCLUSIONS IN THE MATHEMATICAL MODELS

abstract 1001406001 issue 100 pp. 1 – 30 30.06.2014 ru 881
We have proposed the general scheme for studying the stability of the conclusions obtained by mathematical methods and models regarding tolerance deviations of the original data and background models. The concrete problems of stability are discussed: towards a change of data, its size and distributions, to allowable transformations measurement scales, to the temporal characteristics (time of start of the project, the planning horizon). Reducing the uncertainty can be conducted by changing the type of data, i.e. with the aid of the transition to non-numerical data. The models of concrete management processes of industrial organizations are considered on the examples of stability characteristics of investment projects to change the discount factors and in models of inventory management to change in the coefficients of the model and batch size production
12261 kb

A SCIENTOMETRIC INTELLIGENT MEASURING SYSTEM OF RSCI DATA BASED UPON THE ASK ANALYSIS AND EIDOS SYSTEM

abstract 1221608014 issue 122 pp. 157 – 212 31.10.2016 ru 215
Adequate and effective assessment of the efficiency, effectiveness and the quality of scientific activities of specific scientists and research teams is crucial for any information society and a society based on knowledge. The solution to this problem is the subject of scientometrics and its purpose. The current stage of development scientometrics differs greatly from his previous appearance in the open as well as paid on-line access to huge amount of detailed data on a large number of indicators on individual authors and on scientific organizations and universities. The world has well-known bibliographic databases: Web of Science, Scopus, Astrophysics Data System, PubMed, MathSciNet, zbMATH, Chemical Abstracts, Springer, Agris, or GeoRef. In Russia, it is primarily the Russian scientific citing index (RSCI). RSCI is a national information-analytical system, accumulating more than 9 million publications of Russian scientists, as well as the information about citation of these publications from more than 6,000 Russian journals. There is too much information; it is so-called "Big data". But the problem is how to make sense of these large data, more precisely, to identify the meaning of scientometric indicators) and thus to convert them into great information ("great information"), and then apply this information to achieve the objective of scientometrics, i.e. to transform it into a lot of knowledge ("great knowledge") about the specific scientists and research teams. The solution to this problem is creating a "Scientific smart metering system" based on the use of the automated system-cognitive analysis and its software tools – an intellectual system called "Eidos". The article provides a numerical example of the creation and application of Scientometric intelligent measurement system based on a small amount of real scientific data that are publicly available using free on-line access to the RSCI
193 kb

ABOUT CONTROLLING OF SCIENTIFIC ACTIVITY

abstract 1001406013 issue 100 pp. 254 – 273 30.06.2014 ru 743
We have selected the new area of controlling - scientific activity controlling. We consider some problems of development in this field, primarily the problem of selection of key performance indicators. It’s been founded that administrative measures stimulated the pursuit of a number of articles published in scientific journals hinders the development of science. Methodological errors - emphasis on citation indexes, impact factors, etc. - lead to wrong management decisions. As the experience of the UK, an expertise should be applied in the management of science. The article briefly discusses some of the drawbacks of the system of scientific specialties. It is proposed to expand research on the science of science and scientific activity controlling. We have also discussed the problems of controlling in applied research organizations
169 kb

ABOUT NEW PROMISING MATHEMATICAL TOOLS OF CONTROLLING

abstract 1131509028 issue 113 pp. 340 – 354 30.11.2015 ru 363
Based on an objective analysis, it must be noted that in the arsenal of managers, especially foreign ones, there is practically no fundamentally new methods and tools. However, promising mathematical and instrumental methods of controlling actively developed in our country. In the XXI century it developed a new paradigm of mathematical methods of economics and produced more than 10 books, developed in accordance with this paradigm. The new paradigm is based on the modern development of mathematics as a whole - on the system interval fuzzy math. The new paradigm offers tools used non-parametric statistics, which suggest that the distribution functions are arbitrary. In 1979 it was allocated one of the four major areas of modern applied statistics - statistics of objects of nonnumeric nature (statistics of non-numeric data, nonnumeric statistics). The other three - statistics of random variables, multivariate statistical analysis, statistics of random processes and time series. Statistics of objects of non-numeric nature is central to the modern mathematical methods of economics. On the basis of modern information-communication technologies we have developed a new economic theory - solidary information economy. New intellectual tools of controlling include an automated system-cognitive analysis (ASA) and its software - the system of "Eidos". The systems approach to solving specific applications often requires going beyond the economy. Very important are the procedures for the introduction of innovative methods and tools
285 kb

ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE STATISTICS OF NONNUMERICAL OBJECTS

abstract 0931309019 issue 93 pp. 271 – 307 30.11.2013 ru 659
About thirty-five years ago, the statistics of non-numerical objects was highlighted as an independent field of mathematical statistics. This article analyzes the basic ideas in this area, and relevant publications on the background of the development of applied statistics, and in connection with the system fuzzy interval mathematics
413 kb

ABOUT THE EFFECT OF THE SCALE OF AN AGRO-INDUSTRIAL SYSTEM ON TASKS AND APPARATUS OF CONTROLLING SUBSYSTEMS IN ITS CONTROL SYSTEM

abstract 1291705045 issue 129 pp. 521 – 551 31.05.2017 ru 29
The problem of controlling a large-scale agroindustrial system, which should be solved in the process of organizing agricultural production, is considered. It is shown, that the scientific and methodological apparatus of the service subsystem controlling such an object should be expanded in comparison with ordinary enterprises of agroindustrial production. The article considers a new approach to the theory of management of large-scale socio-economic systems, based on a solidary information economy. Its main ideas are analyzed, its use as a basic organizational and economic theory instead of "economics" is justified. According to the solidary information economy, modern information technologies and decisionmaking theory make it possible to build information and communication system based on an "open network society" designed to identify people's needs and organize production in order to meet them. Predecessors - V.M. Glushkov, Anthony Stafford Beer, W. P. Cockshott, A. F. Cottrell and others. The main content of the research is the forecasting of the development of the future society and its economy, the development of organizational and economic methods and models designed to enhance the effectiveness of management processes. As an economic component of the state ideology of Russia, we propose to use a solidary information economy. The organizational and economic theory of Russia's innovative development should be based on a solidary information economy
290 kb

ABOUT THE KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS OF SCIENTIFIC ACTIVITIES

abstract 1111507006 issue 111 pp. 81 – 112 30.09.2015 ru 442
Of the many urgent problems of Science about Science, we consider methods for estimation of the effectiveness and quality of the scientific activities of the researcher, of the organization, of the magazine. Performance indicators of scientific activity are used as an important part in the estimation of higher education institutions, the innovative capacity of enterprises, etc. To estimate the effectiveness of scientific activity is natural to use intellectual tools which are well-established in other subject areas. This will include, in particular, the balanced scorecard, based on key performance indicators (hence the title of this article), as well as controlling, primarily controlling of research activities. There are two more developed and widely used tools for estimation the effectiveness of the scientific activity - the scientometric indicators and the expert estimators. Their critical analysis is the subject of this article. Different versions of manipulating of values of scientometric indicators in the Russian Federation, in our estimation, are still relatively rare. Perhaps this is due to the relatively short period of their use in the management of science. Since an indicator such as citation index (the number of citations of publications) of researcher, allows estimating its contribution to science, the use of this scientometric indicator for the management of science is justified. At the same time, the number of publications and especially h-index is not possible to objectively estimate the effectiveness of research activities, particularly in view of the properties of the real bibliometric databases. Expert procedures have several disadvantages. In this article we discuss the real effectiveness of expert procedures in the areas of their application, as conferring academic degrees and elections to the National Academy of Sciences (primarily in the Russian Academy of Sciences). The basic principles of expertise in these areas remain the same for the past 70 years. Based on an analysis of practice it is necessary to ascertain the lack of efficacy of expert estimators in these areas. Rationale to what has been said is given in the article
257 kb

ABOUT THE METHODOLOGY OF STATISTICAL METHODS

abstract 1041410004 issue 104 pp. 58 – 85 30.12.2014 ru 535
The purpose of the article - to justify the need to develop the methodology of statistical methods as an independent scientific direction. The models of mathematician and applied specialist are presented. We have obtained the conclusions on teaching and research and discussed five major unsolved problems of statistical methods: the effect of deviations from the traditional prerequisites; use asymptotic results for finite sample sizes; selecting one of the many specific tests for the hypothesis; organization of theoretical work in the field of statistical methods; conduct applied research and teaching of statistical methods
252 kb

ABOUT THE NEW PARADIGM OF MATHEMATICAL METHODS OF RESEARCH

abstract 1221608056 issue 122 pp. 806 – 831 31.10.2016 ru 72
In 2011 – 2015, the scientific community was represented by a new paradigm of mathematical methods of research in the field of organizational and economic modeling, econometrics and statistics. There was a talk about a new paradigm of applied statistics, mathematical statistics, mathematical methods of economics, the analysis of statistical and expert data in problems of economics and management. We consider it necessary to develop organizational and economic support for solving specific application area, such as the space industry, start with a new paradigm of mathematical methods. The same requirements apply to the teaching of the respective disciplines. In the development of curricula and working programs, we must be based on a new paradigm of mathematical methods of research. In this study, we present the basic information about a new paradigm of mathematical methods of research. We start with a brief formulation of a new paradigm. The presentation in this article focuses primarily on the scientific field of "Mathematical and instrumental methods of economy", including organizational and economic and economic-mathematical modeling, econometrics and statistics, and decision theory, systems analysis, cybernetics, operations research. We discuss the basic concepts. We talk about the development of a new paradigm. We carry out a detailed comparison of the old and the new paradigms of mathematical methods of research. We give information about the educational literature, prepared in accordance with the new paradigm of mathematical methods of researches
295 kb

ADDITIVE-MULTIPLICATIVE MODEL FOR RISK ESTIMATION IN THE PRODUCTION OF ROCKET AND SPACE TECHNICS

abstract 1021408004 issue 102 pp. 78 – 111 31.10.2014 ru 564
For the first time we have developed a general additive-multiplicative model of the risk estimation (to estimate the probabilities of risk events). In the two-level system in the lower level the risk estimates are combined additively, on the top – in a multiplicative way. Additive-multiplicative model was used for risk estimation for (1) implementation of innovative projects at universities (with external partners), (2) the production of new innovative products, (3) the projects for creation of rocket and space equipmen
.