For the first time we have developed a general additive-multiplicative model of the risk estimation (to estimate the probabilities of risk events). In the two-level system in the lower level the risk estimates are combined additively, on the top – in a multiplicative way. Additive-multiplicative model was used for risk estimation for (1) implementation of innovative projects at universities (with external partners), (2) the production of new innovative products, (3) the projects for creation of rocket and space equipmen
The article presents a technique of short-term
forecasting of water level in the river bed of a
mountain type using Markov’s chains
In 2011 – 2015, the scientific community was
represented by a new paradigm of mathematical
methods of research in the field of organizational
and economic modeling, econometrics and statistics.
There was a talk about a new paradigm of applied
statistics, mathematical statistics, mathematical
methods of economics, the analysis of statistical and
expert data in problems of economics and
management. We consider it necessary to develop
organizational and economic support for solving
specific application area, such as the space industry,
start with a new paradigm of mathematical methods.
The same requirements apply to the teaching of the
respective disciplines. In the development of
curricula and working programs, we must be based
on a new paradigm of mathematical methods of
research. In this study, we present the basic
information about a new paradigm of mathematical
methods of research. We start with a brief
formulation of a new paradigm. The presentation in
this article focuses primarily on the scientific field
of "Mathematical and instrumental methods of
economy", including organizational and economic
and economic-mathematical modeling, econometrics
and statistics, and decision theory, systems analysis,
cybernetics, operations research. We discuss the
basic concepts. We talk about the development of a
new paradigm. We carry out a detailed comparison
of the old and the new paradigms of mathematical
methods of research. We give information about the
educational literature, prepared in accordance with
the new paradigm of mathematical methods of
researches
The purpose of the article - to justify the need to develop the methodology of statistical methods as an independent scientific direction. The models of mathematician and applied specialist are presented. We have obtained the conclusions on teaching and
research and discussed five major unsolved problems of statistical methods: the effect of deviations from the traditional prerequisites; use asymptotic results for finite sample sizes; selecting one of the many specific tests for the hypothesis; organization of theoretical work in the field of statistical methods; conduct applied research and teaching of statistical methods
About thirty-five years ago, the statistics of non-numerical objects was highlighted as an independent field of mathematical statistics. This article analyzes the basic ideas in this area, and relevant publications on the background of the development of applied statistics, and in connection with the system fuzzy interval mathematics
It has been experimentally proven that thermal radiation of optically transparent solid objects forms from the entire heated volume within the spectral frequency that is allowed to pass through
It was shown before [1,2], that variants of intensity of
γ-quantas of axion origin, induced by the variants of
the magnetic field in the the tacho wedge through the
termomagnetic Ettinshausen-Nernst effect, cause
variations of solar luminance and ultimately
characterise the changes of active and calm state of the
Sun. It is shown in the article in which way the areas
of sunspots are generated by the action of global
dynamo in the convective zone, or in other words,
which fundamental processes connect the sunspots and
solar cycles with the large-scaled magnetic field of the
Sun
Further deviation of plasma components from thermodynamic balance in expense of free spins active carriers condition changes occurs when increasing the velocity of chemical processes in plasma by means of simultaneous overstrike of external magnetic field and irradiation of laser and microwave radiation flows.
Based on an objective analysis, it must be noted that
in the arsenal of managers, especially foreign ones,
there is practically no fundamentally new methods
and tools. However, promising mathematical and
instrumental methods of controlling actively
developed in our country. In the XXI century it
developed a new paradigm of mathematical methods
of economics and produced more than 10 books,
developed in accordance with this paradigm. The
new paradigm is based on the modern development
of mathematics as a whole - on the system interval
fuzzy math. The new paradigm offers tools used
non-parametric statistics, which suggest that the
distribution functions are arbitrary. In 1979 it was
allocated one of the four major areas of modern
applied statistics - statistics of objects of nonnumeric
nature (statistics of non-numeric data, nonnumeric
statistics). The other three - statistics of
random variables, multivariate statistical analysis,
statistics of random processes and time series.
Statistics of objects of non-numeric nature is central
to the modern mathematical methods of economics.
On the basis of modern information-communication
technologies we have developed a new economic
theory - solidary information economy. New
intellectual tools of controlling include an
automated system-cognitive analysis (ASA) and its
software - the system of "Eidos". The systems
approach to solving specific applications often
requires going beyond the economy. Very important
are the procedures for the introduction of innovative
methods and tools
We obtain a macroscopic criterion of fragile fracture (limit curve) when creating an isolated defect in the form of “narrow” undercut, when conformal mapping of the exterior of a unit circle on the plane with de-effect in the form of a recess defined by cut fiber-foam series. It is shown that in this case, the limit curve has the form identical to the case when the defect is set to "narrow" ellipse. The same crack oriented along either the compressive stress or tensile perpendicular stress. From here, we can suggest that the shape and geometric properties of a sufficiently "narrow" defect do not affect the values of the critical loads required to start its distribution