Name
Baranovskaya Tatyana Petrovna
Scholastic degree
•
Academic rank
professor
Honorary rank
—
Organization, job position
Kuban State Agrarian University
Web site url
—
Articles count: 65
Application of classical forecasting methods applied to a diversified corporation faces some certain difficulties, due to its economic nature. Unlike other businesses, diversified corporations are characterized by multidimensional arrays of data with a high degree of distortion and fragmentation of the information due to the cumulative effect of the incompleteness and distortion of accounting information from its enterprises. Under these conditions, the applied methods and tools must have high resolution and to work effectively with large databases with incomplete information, to ensure correct common comparable quantitative processing of the heterogeneous nature of the factors measured in different units. It is therefore necessary to select or develop some methods that can work with poorly formalized complex tasks. This fact substantiates the relevance of the problem of developing models, methods and tools for solving the problem of forecasting the development of diversified corporations. This article compares methods of forecasting and encourages using the ask analysis which has a good theoretical justification for the meaningful interpretation of a knowledge model based on information theory; high accuracy and independence of calculation results of the unit of measurement baseline data through the use of not the correlation matrix, as in statistical systems, and matrices of knowledge. A well-developed and available Toolkit of the ASK-analysis which is an intellectual system called "Eidos" (created by E. V. Lutsenko, 1994) allows, on the basis of fragmented, noisy source data of various nature (numeric, text) to create models of large dimension. The ASK-analysis and the system of "Eidos" have been widely and successfully used in economics, engineering, agriculture, sociology and other fields. These features of the ASK-analysis have led to the fact that it was chosen as the method of forecasting of dynamics of indicators of the corporation
Small businesses play a special role in the
development of the state economy: the national
budget from taxes, increasing the welfare of the
population, the question of employment, the
formation of competitive environment, cost
containment and improving the quality of goods and
services. In this regard, become topical issues related
to the creation of favorable conditions for the
functioning and development of management tools
and mechanisms of development of organizations of
this segment of the economy. This work aims to
identify the key problems of functioning of small
business organizations through the assessment of the
development of this segment in the economy of the
Krasnodar region. For the evaluation of small
business development in the Krasnodar region we
used basic unit of economic analysis aimed at
determining the major trends of change in number of
organizations average number of employees,
revenues, as well as a number of relative indicators in
the whole segment and by major activities. It was
determined that the number of small businesses in the
Krasnodar region for three years practically did not
change, whereas a decrease in the number of workers
employed in this segment, revenue has a small
tendency to increase. In the structure of the segment
is dominated by micro-enterprises, 47% operate in
the trade sector. Indicators of development of small
business organizations meet the classification criteria
in terms of revenue for microenterprises and their
share in total number of companies this segment is
1%. The results of the study say the lack of a clear
strategy from small businesses, due to unavailability
of tools for its development, expressed the high value
of the resource and, as a consequence, ignoring this question when organizing the activities of enterprises.
Therefore, the question becomes more urgent the
development of tools of business modeling and
strategic planning adapted to the requirements of this
segment
The article presents results of the study to assess the effectiveness of credit funds in interacting agricultural (AES) and processing (PP) agricultural enterprises. The conducted studies are a continuation of the scientific work on the development of mathematical models of interaction of the enterprises of the AES and PP, are shown in the articles [1, 2, 3]. This article presents the authors’ developed set of models of management of credit funds of interacting enterprises of an agroindustrial complex. It includes mathematical models of economic efficiency of agricultural enterprises considering the use of loan funds, as well as the assessment of the maximum amount of interest rate of the loan and the minimum selling prices of units of finished agricultural products; a mathematical model of the economic efficiency of the processing plant taking into account credit obligations of the agricultural enterprise and a model for the calculation of the minimum selling prices of its finished products; a mathematical model of the economic efficiency of the combined entity with all its loans. We have proposed a model to calculate the minimum selling prices of its finished products
Small business is an important segment of the
economy of the state. However, today, there remains
a number of problems in the effective functioning of
small business organizations, including the lack of
adequate tools for information processing, necessary
to justify their development strategy. The article
presents a solution to the task of developing
functional requirements for an application that
automates the process of forming a business model of
small business organizations. The set of developed
requirements is represented by a set of diagrams "Use
Case Diagram", built using the unified modeling
language UML. It is shown, that the business model
is the main source of data for calculating the
efficiency indicators of business ideas, capital
investments, incomes and expenses. As a basic
approach to the development of the business model,
the template proposed by A. Osterwalder was chosen,
which was supplemented with the "Competitors
analysis" block. Thus, the improved business model
template will include the following processes:
"Project Value Proposal", "Design Consumer
Segments", "Design Sales Channels", "Design
Customer Relationship Technologies", "Design
Processes", "Design Resources", "Design partners",
"Analyze suppliers". Among the blocks of the
business model template, the key one ("Distribution
channels") is provided, which includes the calculation
of revenues and expenditures, performance indicators
for each sales channel, and their consolidated
representation in the overall business model
Sustainability of enterprises plays an important role in the economic and social life of all industrially developed countries. Despite numerous publications devoted to the analysis of the sustainability of organizations, there are still ambiguous approaches to the methods of analysis for different authors. In addition, for companies of different industries, forms of ownership, geographically located in different regions of the border, the methods and indicators for assessing sustainability can vary considerably. In this connection, there is a need to develop a decision support system that would allow the most efficient assessment of the sustainability of the largest possible range of enterprises, with the possibility of adjusting and flexibly tuning as many parameters as possible. The article describes the architecture and algorithm of the DSS, which implements the following model of initial data generation in its functional; Model of formation of a tree-like structure of groups of indicators on the basis of which the stability is assessed; Model for specifying the fuzzy sets belonging to the recommended values of the indicators; Model for calculating the values of groups of indicators and their fuzzy estimates; The model of graphical interpretation of the organization's sustainability assessment. The developed system was tested on the basis of the company called Antey LLC
The article proposes a solution to one of the problems
of small business, which is creation of a part of the
software of management of information system
efficiency for small processing enterprises of AIC.
The fact is, that currently, there are almost no
information systems to support small business. All
known information systems have approximately the
same list of automated functions, covering the
accounting phase, and sometimes phase of analysis.
Practically, not affected by the evaluation function of
the economic situation, prediction, planning and
regulation. The proposed mathematical model has
been developed on the basis of the creation of
streaming schemes of one-product processing
enterprises of agroindustrial complex and
mathematical description of the proceeding financial
and material flows
A diversified corporation is a highly complex multivariable dynamic system. The application of classical forecasting methods applied to such objects has encountered a number of difficulties, due to its economic nature. In the article, we substantiate the requirements to the forecasting method; on the basis of these requirements we can select the method and its software tool
The article proposes a solution to one of the problems
of small business, which is creation of a part of the
software of management of information system
efficiency for small processing enterprises of AIC.
The fact is, that currently, there are almost no
information systems to support small business. All
known information systems have approximately the
same list of automated functions, covering the
accounting phase, and sometimes phase of analysis.
Practically, not affected by the evaluation function of
the economic situation, prediction, planning and
regulation. The proposed mathematical model has
been developed on the basis of the creation of
streaming schemes of one-product processing
enterprises of agroindustrial complex and
mathematical description of the proceeding financial
and material flows
The quality of life of the population of the region is an
important integral criterion of estimation of efficiency
of activity of regional administration. The most
important strategic sector of the economy of the
Krasnodar region is the agro-industrial complex (AIC).
This poses the problem of management of the quality
of life of the region through the use of as the control
factor of the volume and direction of investment in
agriculture
The performance indicators of a trading company in
physical and monetary terms is significantly affected
by the types and volumes of purchased and sold
products, and which she purchased suppliers and the
consumers sold. However, the solution to the problem
of choosing the rational range of products faces
considerable cost of computational and human
resources, and lack of baseline data, and in real
dimensions this problem has no solution. The paper
proposes such a solution is very economical in costs of
different types of resources based on the application of
information theory, cognitive and control theory