Scientific Journal of KubSAU

In the article we have theoretically proved and justified the need to develop an algorithm for constructing and sharing practical methods of rating and discriminant modeling express models of financial analysis and forecasting of economic agents bankruptcy of agricultural sector characterized by a high degree of reliability of reporting results in contrast to the currently existing techniques

In the market conditions, the key to survival and the basis of the provisions of the stability of any business entity is financial stability. Its achievement is possible by improving the efficiency of economic activities, which is achieved when the rational use of all kinds of resources and reduce costs. The important role in realization of this task has been given to the economic potential of the control system. Therefore, the economic potential of the analysis and evaluation of the topic, i.e. efficient use of all resources, is relevant at this stage of development of the domestic economy. Studying the nature resources as a basis for economic development, identifying their sources, development of ways, forms and methods of their use allow us to formulate the principles of activation of economic policy for the intensification of economic processes. In the conditions of growing complexities of the Russian economy the definition of resource capacities should be a priority in the development strategy of any business entity, region, industry. One of the most important branches of the material production of the Krasnodar region is agriculture. Today's reality is that the consumption of many food products is still below the science-based standards, and import dependence exceeds the allowable criteria of food security, despite the fact that the number of rejected and lowered in grade imported food products is quite large

The article deals with the types and methods of forecasting as tools for further development of production and business. Specific roles of each way in economy and manufacturing is identified in General. The relationship of forecasting with other sciences of importance in determining the baseline and trends in the development of the economy is indicated. The relationship between foresight of successful transactions in the form of contracts is determined, and the reasons for unfavorable outcomes of their conclusion are justified. A correlation between prediction and such sciences as probability theory, mathematical statistics, mathematics and physics is traced. Examples of forecasting use in specific branches of economy are given. The article substantiates forecasting trends differences and conclusions are drawn as to their application ways. The role of making predictions on the basis of the revealed patterns and its difference from foresight without reliance on any certain laws that allow identification of the situations-paradoxes group are defined. The authors presents various situations in the business development process, in which there can be transaction costs. In this context, the spontaneity of their occurrence is defined, and the characteristic of their appearance is justified. Another no less important aspect, influencing the increase of company share in the market is the relationship of risk insurance, game theory and forecasting. A key aspect here is the ability to compare the prospects of the company development in the market with laws that govern probability theory

This article investigates the problem of drug supply in Russia during the financial and economic crisis. One of the priority tasks of the state should be providing the population with quality and affordable medicines. Low competitiveness of Russian drugs and substances, the lack of innovation in the pharmaceutical industry have led to high import-dependent on the Russian pharmaceutical market, which constitutes a threat to the economic security of Russia. On the one hand, the import of drugs and substances is one of the main factors of development and functioning of the pharmaceutical industry in Russia at present, but the existing structure of foreign trade of medicines and pharmaceutical substances testifies to the import of drug dependence. Of particular relevance is considered in this article the issue of import substitution in the pharmaceutical industry in terms of EU and us economic sanctions and financial crisis in Russia. The sharp fall of the ruble led to the destabilization of the Russian economy and consequently to higher prices for medicines and decrease in purchasing power, despite the fact that drugs are commodities of inelastic demand. With the aim of improving the competitiveness of domestic products and increases their market share in the Russian pharmaceutical market necessary to implement a number of economic and legal measures aimed at improving the system of state regulation of import of medicinal products

In today's economic conditions, a bankruptcy prediction is performed using a methodological analysis apparatus of economic and financial condition of the entities. Methodical provision of financial analysis is a tool that is necessary for the most effective management of financial and economic activities of the organization, industry, and region. The task of predicting bankruptcy as an independent problem originated in developed countries after the Second World War. Our transition to a market economy has made an actual assessment of the financial condition of businesses. As a result, in practice, there are many financial analyses of foreign and domestic procedures. The problem of determining signs of insolvency of the enterprise is very complex. Forecasting of bankruptcy can be made with using various techniques, approaches and methods