Name
Yefanova Natalia Vladimirovna
Scholastic degree
—
Academic rank
associated professor
Honorary rank
—
Organization, job position
Kuban State Agrarian University
Web site url
—
Articles count: 19
Results of internal environment integrated production system research with the point of view of qualitative analysis and risk evaluation were casted in the article.
In particular, model and method of calculation of integral index of production vertical line risk and improved data-flow model of effectiveness assessment of IPS with an account of risk constituent on the stage of creation of material flow are described. Reasonability of presentation of prognostic meaning
of profit in the type of indistinct triangular number was substantiated.
Model and method of calculation of integral index
of influence of external environment of integrated production system were considered and interaction
of given index with choice of optimal strategy
of business-system development was shown in the article. Results of approbation of worked out model and method were casted.
Principles of construction and stages of programming complex on analysis and risks assessment at the enterprises of agro-industrial complex, including design of general architecture of programming complex, logical structure of programming models, being the part of programming complex, physical structure of programming complex on the level of file system and algorithm of functioning of complex software are considered in the article.
QUANTITATIVE MODELS AND METHODS OF RISKS EVALUATION IN AGRO-INDUSTRIAL INTEGRATED PRODUCTION SYSTEMS
Results of researches on quantitative evaluation of agro-industrial integrated production systems (IPS) risks with the regard of influence of external and
internal media are described in this article.
Particularly, quantitative method of calculation of integrated risk indexes of unfavorable influence of external medium on integrated production systems; model of determination of IPS effectiveness on the base of worked out models of calculation of integrated risk indexes and an equipment of slipshod great numbers theory; improved model of IPS effectiveness evaluation with the regard of risk component part on the stage of material flow creation have been described.
In this article the size of material stream in bread-production chain with use of the theory of indistinct sets and application of risk component is predicted, the interval model of definition of efficiency is developed
In this article outcomes of economic-mathematical modeling of the processes, which are flowing past in manufacturing chains of the small agricultural business, are resulted. The structure of a developed complex of models of planning and production management in farms is featured. The Indistinct mathematical models substantiation efficiency use of credit funds is developed
The article describes the fuzzy-multiple approach and the block of fuzzy (interval) mathematical models developed by the authors for calculating the amounts of material and financial flows, prices for bread and economic efficiency in a technologically integrated bread production system
This article is devoted to consideration of questions of
agro-industrial integration. Agro-industrial complex is
a difficult dynamic system, including different
branches of a national economy. In this work, the
scheme of agro-enterprise functioning is submitted.
The scheme was constructed with use of so-called
“black box” model. The agro-enterprise significantly
differs from the enterprises of other branches by a
number of signs of. It is connected with the fact that
agricultural production is characterized by high degree
of uncertainty. Tasks of the uncertainty analysis, and,
as a result, different risks of the agroenterprises are
actual. Development of the effective mechanism of
risk management is also an important task. In this
article, the features of risk classification in agroindustrial
complex, including the specific risks, are
considered. The agroenterprises actively use
integration mechanisms for decrease of possible
consequences of a risk event. There are vertical and
horizontal integration. Structures of the integrated
agro-industrial production systems, which construct
taking into account vertical and horizontal
communications, are considered in this article. The
most effective is vertically matrix integration in which
the diversification mechanism of business is
considered. The feasibility of the risk assessment with
due regard for integration communications is proved
In this article, the general structure of technologically
complete production chain of the integrated production
system of agroindustrial complex was considered.
Three different variants of creation of the production
chains are described. The main distinctions in activity
of chains consist in a source of raw materials. Any
technologically full vertical chain includes three stages
– production of raw materials, storage and processing,
realization. Each of stages is characterized by different
situations of the risk. Stages of process of functioning
of a production chain were considered in this article.
Also, the qualitative analysis of risk for all stages is
made and the results of this analysis are considered.
Results of this analysis became a basis for
improvement of stream model for determination of
efficiency of the technological chain taking into
account a risk component. In the article, the algorithm
of an assessment of efficiency of the technological
chain of the integrated production system taking into
account a risk component at the stage of creation of a
material stream is also described
Relevance of developing Internet service for searching
travel companions for intercity and intracity trips
substantiated in the article. The existing services that
provide similar services were analyzed, their
shortcomings and advantages of the basic principles of
operation were identified and analyzed. Functional of
own service was disclosed in comparison to existing
ones. The variants to benefit drivers and passengers
were offered