Scientific Journal of KubSAU

Polythematic online scientific journal
of Kuban State Agrarian University
ISSN 1990-4665
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Moloshnev Sergey Alexandrovich

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Kuban State Agrarian University
   

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Articles count: 1

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PHASE ANALYSIS AS A TOOL OF PREESTIMATED ANALYSIS OF THE ACTIVITY OF A MULTIFUNCTIONAL CENTER

abstract 1071503033 issue 107 pp. 473 – 483 31.03.2015 ru 1107
The article is devoted to the phase analysis as a tool preprocessor analysis of a multi-purpose center. Consider the time series of the daily number of requests received on the basis of the phase portraits of these time series. These time series have strong properties of cycles and periodicity. Practice has shown that in modern conditions, for example, for the Russian economy with its instability and financial crises, classical economic theory and statistics, built on linear models, turned out to be unproductive. Overview of approaches and economic-mathematical methods preprocessor analysis of evolutionary economic processes and the corresponding time series allows concluding the following: one versatile, satisfying all the requirements, do not possess the shortcomings of the method of analysis and forecasting does not exist. Each approach and each method has its advantages, disadvantages, limits of use. Most of the known methods of forecasting operate detected in the considered time series properties of cycles and periodicity. Thus, the mere presence of a pronounced cyclicity at different levels of the considered hierarchical model of the time series of the number of requests in a multi-purpose center are important indicators of the possibility of constructing an adequate predictive model number of requests in the multi-purpose centre
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