Scientific Journal of KubSAU

Polythematic online scientific journal
of Kuban State Agrarian University
ISSN 1990-4665
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306 kb

PROBABILITY-STATISTICAL MODELS OF CORRELATION AND REGRESSION

abstract 1602006011 issue 160 pp. 130 – 162 30.06.2020 ru 6
The correlation and determination coefficients are widely used in statistical data analysis. According to measurement theory, Pearson's linear paired correlation coefficient is applicable to variables measured on an interval scale. It cannot be used in the analysis of ordinal data. The nonparametric Spearman and Kendall rank coefficients estimate the relationship of ordinal variables. The critical value when testing the significance of the difference of the correlation coefficient from 0 depends on the sample size. Therefore, using the Chaddock Scale is incorrect. When using a passive experiment, the correlation coefficients are reasonably used for prediction, but not for control. To obtain probabilistic-statistical models intended for control, an active experiment is required. The effect of outliers on the Pearson correlation coefficient is very large. With an increase in the number of analyzed sets of predictors, the maximum of the corresponding correlation coefficients — indicators of approximation quality noticeably increases (the effect of “inflation” of the correlation coefficient). Four main regression analysis models are considered. Models of the least squares method with a determinate independent variable are distinguished. The distribution of deviations is arbitrary, however, to obtain the limit distributions of parameter estimates and regression dependences, we assume that the conditions of the central limit theorem are satisfied. The second type of model is based on a sample of random vectors. The dependence is nonparametric, the distribution of the two-dimensional vector is arbitrary. The estimation of the variance of an independent variable can be discussed only in the model based on a sample of random vectors, as well as the determination coefficient as a quality criterion for the model. Time series smoothing is discussed. Methods of restoring dependencies in spaces of a general nature are considered. It is shown that the limiting distribution of the natural estimate of the dimensionality of the model is geometric, and the construction of an informative subset of features encounters the effect of "inflation coefficient correlation". Various approaches to the regression analysis of interval data are discussed. Analysis of the variety of regression analysis models leads to the conclusion that there is no single “standard model”
244 kb

SOFTWARE PACKAGE FOR THE ESTIMATION OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE SUBJECTS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

abstract 1602006012 issue 160 pp. 163 – 173 30.06.2020 ru 7
The article presents ways to estimate the socio-economic condition of the subjects of the Russian Federation using fuzzy production systems, discriminant analysis and neural networks. This study is based on the thirteen indicators of the socio-economic condition of the regions of the Russian Federation identified by RIA Rating rating agency. The goal of the work is to develop a software package combining the estimation methods above and allowing to get three alternative estimation options for a subject of the Russian Federation, using these thirteen indicators. The developed program assigns each region an estimation from the following set: AAA– the highest socio-economic condition, AA - very high, A– high, BBB– above average, BB– average, B– below average, CCC– low, CC– very low, C– the lowest indicators of the socio-economic conditions in the region of the Russian Federation. The software package is developed in Matlab and has an intuitive interface. The results can be used as an alternative to current methods of estimation of the socio-economic indicators
150 kb

PRODUCTIVITY OF SUGAR CORN DEPENDING ON NITROGEN FERTILIZERS

abstract 1602006013 issue 160 pp. 174 – 184 30.06.2020 ru 6
The article gives a review of the results of studying the features of the formation of sugar corn grain yield depending on the application of nitrogen mineral fertilizers used for sowing and fertilizing. The object of research was the mid-early hybrid of corn called Krasnodarsky Sakharny 280 SV (FAO 280). In the experiment, 2 factors were studied: factor Ā - sowing nitrogen fertilizer (b / ud (k), 15 and 30 kg.d.v. / ha), factor B - root nitrogen fertilizing (b / ud (k), 15 and 30 kg.dv./ha). The total area of the plot is 20 m2, the accounting area is 10 m2. The number of rows in the plot is only 4, including accounting - 2. The plots are systematically placed. In the fall, the main mineral fertilizer was applied at a dose of N30P60K60, under the main tillage - plowing to a depth of 25-27 cm. Four-fold repetition. The predecessor is winter wheat. The counts and observations in the experiment were carried out according to generally accepted methods. Studies have established that the highest yield of ears of sugar corn in milk ripeness - 14.60 and 14.71 t / ha, respectively, was obtained on options with the addition of N30 when sowing + N15 or N30 in root dressing. A further increase in the dosage of nitrogen to 60 kg.d.v./ha does not lead to an increase in yield. The highest level of profitability was obtained with the option of sowing nitrogen fertilizer at a dose of 30 kg.d.v / ha in combination with nitrogen for top dressing at a dose of 15 kg.d.v / ha (N30 + N15)
129 kb

EFFECTIVENESS OF USING MULTIKAN-6 WHEN GROWING YOUNG FOXES

abstract 1602006014 issue 160 pp. 185 – 193 30.06.2020 ru 4
The cost-effectiveness of animal husbandry in the conditions of Yakutia causes irreparable damage to viral diseases, such as salmonellosis, viral hepatitis, parvovirus enteritis and others. Based on this, in animal husbandry, increased attention is paid to the prevention of viral diseases. The work was carried out in the period from 2009 to 2012. in the conditions of LLC "Pokrovskoye animal husbandry" of the Khangalassky ulus of the Sakha Republic (Yakutia). Boning of young animals showed that all his indicators were higher for pups born in 2011. So body size and physique are rated higher by 15.15%, in males - by 20.58%. Hair color was better in females by 19.44%, in males by 22.66%. As a result, the classiness of the animals of the experimental groups was higher than that of pups born in 2010. The commodity properties of the animal products of experimental animals and its cost are consistent with the results of the valuation. The offset on the quality of the fur products of the experimental groups in 2011 was determined at 89.02%, which is higher than the 2010 results by 10.32%. The average cost of one fur of a silver-black fox in 2011 was 2225.62 rubles. Additional vaccination of the main herd of foxes in autumn against the viral diseases with the vaccine "Multikan-6" has a positive effect on the quality of the fur products. The economic effect amounted to 258.62 rubles per 1 skin of a silver-black fox (at 2020 prices)
175 kb

STUDY OF THE INFLUENCE OF TREATMENT WITH SULFUR ANHYDRIDE ON GRAIN QUALITY INDICATORS IN THE STORAGE PROCESS

abstract 1602006015 issue 160 pp. 194 – 208 30.06.2020 ru 4
The urgent task facing the agro-industrial complex is the improvement of storage methods for agricultural products and the development of new ones. One of the actively cultivated crops, characterized by a variety of species, valuable taste and medicinal properties – grape. It is possible to provide the population with fresh grapes of high quality through the introduction of effective storage technologies that reduce losses, preserve marketable properties and biological value. One of the effective ways to preserve the quality of grapes during storage is the use of sulfur dioxide (SO2). This gas inhibits oxidative enzymes in berries, thereby reducing the rate of development of the phytopathogen Botrýtis cinérea, which causes gray rot. At the same time, it is especially important to control the rate of release of sulfur dioxide, since at the beginning of storage it is necessary to ensure the receipt of a large amount of it, which will eliminate Botrytis spores present on the surface of the berries and stabilize the existing damage. Further, during the entire period of storage of grapes, sulfur dioxide must be supplied in minimal quantities. Such dynamics of SO2 emission can be ensured by the use of two-phase generators of sulfur dioxide. The article investigated the effects of sulfur dioxide generators on the quality of grapes during storage. The study also investigates quality indicators of grapes of several varieties zoned in the Krasnodar region under long-term storage
157 kb

GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT OF SUGAR CORN DEPENDING ON NITROGEN FERTILIZERS

abstract 1592005001 issue 159 pp. 1 – 13 29.05.2020 ru 7
The article provides an overview of the results of a study of the effect of nitrogen fertilizers (sowing and top dressing) on the growth and development of sugar corn plants. The object of research was the mid-early hybrid of corn called Krasnodar Sugar 280 NE (FAO 280). In the experiment, 2 factors were studied: factor Ā - sowing nitrogen fertilizer (b / b (k), 15 and 30 kg.d.v / ha), factor B - root nitrogen top dressing (b / b (k), 15 and 30 kg.dv./ha). The total area of the plot is 20 m2, the accounting area is 10 m2. The number of rows in the plot is only 4, including accounting - 2. The plots are systematically placed. In the fall, the main fertilizer was applied in the background at a dose of N30P60K60, under plowing. Repeating four times. The predecessor is winter wheat. The counts and observations in the experiment were carried out according to generally accepted methods. Studies have established that the phases of “seedlings” and “5-6 leaves” did not depend on nitrogen fertilizers. The “panicle panning” phase in the variants with the introduction of nitrogen occurred 2 days later, and the phase "milk ripeness on the cob" - for 1 day. The height of the plants of the control variant was 202 cm. With an increase in the dose of nitrogen, the height of the plants of sweet corn increased. The maximum (12 cm higher) plant height was on the option using N30 for sowing and root dressing
211 kb

TECHNOLOGICAL AND DESIGN PARAMETERS OF A PNEUMATIC SEEDER WITH A CENTRAL DOSING SYSTEM

abstract 1592005002 issue 159 pp. 14 – 21 29.05.2020 ru 6
The article describes reasons for uneven distribution of seeds by pneumatic grain drills. For the theoretical justification of the operation modes of the pneumatic seeder, we have calculated the coefficients of the weight concentration of seeds in the air stream for different seeding rates and movement speeds. We have also calculated feed rate of seeds and planting performance of the machine for working width of 8.4 m. We have derived an equation of constancy of consumption of seeds, and the equation determining total pressure loss in the pneumatic conduit, emerging from the sum of the losses in the receiver, losses on the dispersal of the material after the receiver, and losses on the stopped movement of pneumatic mixtures
21711 kb

COMPLETE AUTOMATED SYSTEM-COGNITIVE ANALYSIS OF THE PERIODIC CRITERION CLASSIFICATION OF THE FORMS OF CONSCIOUSNESS

abstract 1592005003 issue 159 pp. 22 – 93 29.05.2020 ru 15
This work continues the series of works written by the author on the application of modern scientific methods in the study of human consciousness. In 1979-1981, two monographs were written devoted to higher forms of consciousness, the prospects of man, technology and society. One of these monographs was two-volume and was called "Theoretical Foundations of the Synthesis of Quasi-Biological Robots." In these monographs the author proposed: 1) criterial periodic classification of 49 forms of consciousness, including higher forms of consciousness (HFC); 2) based on this classification, there were psychological, microsocial and technological methods of transition between various forms of consciousness, including methods of transition from the usual form of consciousness to the HFC; 3) information-functional theory of the development of technology (including the rule of improving the quality of the basis); 4) information theory of value; 5) 11 functional schemes of technical systems of future forms of society, including remote telekinetic (mental) control systems; 6) the concept of development of society in groups of socio-economic formations; 7) the concept of determining the form of human consciousness by the functional level of the technological environment; 8) mathematical and numerical modeling of the dynamics of the probability density of states of human consciousness in evolution using the theory of Markov’s random processes. In this study, we carry out a complete automated system-cognitive analysis (ASC- analysis) of the periodic criteria classification of forms of consciousness proposed by the author in 1978. To this end, the following tasks are solved in the work: cognitive structuring and formalization of the subject area; synthesis and verification of statistical and system-cognitive models (multi-parameter typification of forms of consciousness); systemic identification of forms of consciousness; their typological analysis; investigations of a simulated domain by examining its model. We have also given a detailed numerical example of solving all these problems
147 kb

THERAPY FOR ESCHERICHIOSIS OF NEWBORN CALVES

abstract 1592005005 issue 159 pp. 94 – 103 29.05.2020 ru 6
Blood samples were taken from newborn calves and sent to the Rostov regional veterinary laboratory. The result of the general analysis of blood showed increased erythrocytes, increased red blood cell count and increasing white blood cell count as well as low hemoglobin levels. The results of the studies on the content of phosphorus, calcium, zinc, vitamins A and C in the blood showed that the sick calves have hyperphosphatemia, namely violations of the phosphorus-calcium ratio. A decrease in vitamin A in sick calves to 8.2±0.5 mcg% and zinc to 74.1±1.2 mcg% was found .This indicates a violation of mineral metabolism, which occurs due to a lack of minerals in the diet, but also with intensive withdrawal from the body, as a result of poor absorption and impaired renal filtration. As a result of typing on O-antigen, using a set of polyvalent and serogroup agglutinating O-coliseums, the presence of an adhesive A20 antigen was revealed. In the course of research, faeces from 9 newborn calves of 1-8 days of age were sent to determine the sensitivity to antibacterial drugs. Thus, 9 samples of cultures of E. coli sensitive to the following antibiotics: enrofloxacin, imipenem, meropenem, levofloxacin, and vancomycin, gentamicin, cefotaxime, and rofloxacin. Based on data from blood tests and sensitivity to anti-biotics, the animals were divided into 3 groups. And each group used three different treatment regimens. Observing the calves of the experimental groups, we found that the condition of the sick animals stabilized within 2-4 days. In the first group of 12 calves, 1 calf fell and 11 survived. In the second group of 11 calves, all survived. In the third control group of 12 calves, 7 fell, and 5 survived. When determining the sensitivity of Escherichia cultures isolated from calves of this farm to antibiotics, 100% sensitivity to levomycetin sodium succinate was obtained
157 kb

DEVELOPMENT OF METHODS OF ASSESSING THE TECHNICAL CONDITION OF THE STATOR WINDINGS OF ELECTRIC MOTORS VOLTAGES ABOVE 1000 V

abstract 1592005006 issue 159 pp. 104 – 109 29.05.2020 ru 10
Both domestic and foreign experience have noted that the introduction of diagnostic tools was one of the most important factors in increasing the economic efficiency of the use of equipment in industry. The purpose of diagnostics is detection and prevention of failures and failures, maintenance of operational parameters within the specified limits, forecasting of the state for the purpose of full use of the resource. Today, more than ever, the assessment of the current state of the electric power is particularly acute. With one regulatory method of testing electric motors, it was necessary to make a sufficiently in-depth analysis of technical documentation for testing or diagnosis of new modern tests or diagnostics. The relevance of the transition to non-destructive methods of motor testing is increased in order to increase their service life. At present, there is a need to introduce more gentle methods of testing electric bodies, since the standardized test method has a negative impact on the condition of electric motors as a whole and on the integrity of the structure. In order to ensure the necessary level of reliability of electrical equipment at enterprises, it is necessary to use modern testing methods and diagnostic systems
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