Nowadays the high level of electricity losses is one of the most important issues of the energy industry in the Russian Federation recognized at the state level. According to many sources, one of the activities that contribute to reduce energy losses, is their planning, an important component of which is the prediction of electricity losses on the basis of retrospective information. The highest percentage of technical losses of electricity is accounted for distribution network with a voltage range 0,4-35 kV. In this regard, the most productive activity is forecast construction namely of this component of power losses. According to some features of the regarded value (electricity losses) the most effective activity for its forecasting is using methods with artificial intelligence elements. One of these methods, having a number of important advantages, is forecasting fuzzy time series. This technique is widely consecrated in foreign publications, but did not find sufficient popularity in our country. This article analyzes the existing models of forecasting fuzzy time series on the basis of which proposals for their improvement and adaptation in order to predict the loss of electricity are made; designed model of multivariate fuzzy time series forecasting of energy losses is given
The article considers a combination of the process-based and systematic approach in the management of OSH at the enterprise for the development of the OSH management system model. The OSH management system is created by the enterprise based on the model provision, the branch requirements and recommendations of the current standards. Features of the system are determined by the state of the external and internal environment of the enterprise (context). The context forms the basic requirements for the inputs of the system and determines its capabilities. An analysis of the context of the enterprise makes it possible to identify the system: describe its inputs and outputs, identify key stakeholders and consumers. Based on this analysis, a model of the OSH management system is suggested, which, in analogy with the modern model of the quality management system, allows us to identify the place of the OSH in the context of the organization, and also to clarify the interaction of the main groups of OSH
In the article the principles of the modeling of problems of control and management model of forest industrial companies, based on a two-level structure are shown
In the article we have considered in detail the questions of ratios of the economic categories of "insolvency" and "bankruptcy". The model of management of accounting of "insolvency" is
considered. Introduction in accounting of the poor debtor of the structured book of accounts is offered
The article describes a model section of the transport network, taking into account the probabilistic characteristics of the time the vehicle, namely a possible delay in transportation, a loading or unloading. The optimality criterion for route with the largest revenue from transportation is shown
In order to improve the security of information transfer we have offered one of the possible approaches to modeling process control computer networks with elements of intelligent decision support. We proceed from the graph model of network nodes which are network devices with software control agents, and arcs are logical channels of information exchange between the equipment computer systems. We built an addressless sensing technology which ensures the completeness of monitoring of all network equipment. To classify the computer networks state we provided a method for calculating the values of reliability. Development of signal mismatch triggers the control cycle as a result of which the adjustment of the state of network equipment. For existing tools we proposed adding network control expert system consists of a knowledge base, inference mechanism and means of description and fill in the knowledge base
On the basis of hydrodynamic analogy between turbulent transport of momentum, heat and mass transfer, and information in the conditions of modern electronic social networks, we consider a model of informational influence. The flow of information is represented as a stream of random events with simplest flow properties. In addition to the flow of information impact there were introduced the concepts of density, velocity and viscosity of the information flow. These parameters had been derived from the construction of dimensionless criteria characterizing the balance between inertia and viscosity of the information flow of information influence. This criterion serves as a numeric parameter determining the boundary
of the transition from low-intensity to high intensity of information influence the turbulent nature of the attack. We have also analyzed the ranges of changes and the meaning of the entered parameters from the point of the organized network information inserts. The existence of the information in time and procedural nature of the concept of information allow us to focus on the properties of information flow as inertia, dynamics and relaxation
The model of identification of process of a dust con-tent of the air is submitted. It is shown, that in a work-ing zone of foundry shops the significant amount of a dust is allocated. The most unsuccessful sites from a position of allocation of a dust are chambers and lattices. The experimental analysis shows, that in structure of a dust the weight maintenance of fractions with a diameter up to 20 microns reaches 43,8 % on weight. The dust is most dangerous to health of the working personnel and creates problems at clearing air. The model of structure of dusty air is received
The article presents the model of formation of the pedagogical culture of the teacher of the professional Lyceum, built on cultural, cooperative learning and средовом approaches and containing the target, content, process, diagnostic components
Movement of geographical and magnetic poles versus celestial bodies’ positions is examined on the basis of the special and general relativity theory.