Nowadays the high level of electricity losses is one of the most important issues of the energy industry in the Russian Federation recognized at the state level. According to many sources, one of the activities that contribute to reduce energy losses, is their planning, an important component of which is the prediction of electricity losses on the basis of retrospective information. The highest percentage of technical losses of electricity is accounted for distribution network with a voltage range 0,4-35 kV. In this regard, the most productive activity is forecast construction namely of this component of power losses. According to some features of the regarded value (electricity losses) the most effective activity for its forecasting is using methods with artificial intelligence elements. One of these methods, having a number of important advantages, is forecasting fuzzy time series. This technique is widely consecrated in foreign publications, but did not find sufficient popularity in our country. This article analyzes the existing models of forecasting fuzzy time series on the basis of which proposals for their improvement and adaptation in order to predict the loss of electricity are made; designed model of multivariate fuzzy time series forecasting of energy losses is given
The article deals with the models of analysis of a target product’s load flow in the indignant condition of a production corporation against loss of information definiteness of boundary conditions. The classification of the boundary conditions for the stationary conditions of the studied fragment of system is given
The article presents the criteria for the effectiveness of
the scientific and pedagogical workers of higher skill
levels for the preparation of scientific and pedagogical
staff. It is known that the preparation of the teaching
staff (PhDs) - one of the most important activities of
higher education institutions; Moreover, when the state
accreditation of higher education institutions
compulsorily taken into account indicators that reflect
the impact of training candidates. Also, of course, that the training of the teaching staff (PhDs) - activities that
require both high levels of research and pedagogical
competence. This means that the results of scientific and
teaching staff higher qualification levels for the
preparation of the scientific staff - both indicators of
research and pedagogical competence; own training of
researchers - an area of "crossing" of scientific and
pedagogical activity. Unfortunately, the increase in the
number of scientific personnel being prepared does not
always mean quality growth. Often trained scientific
personnel (PhD) not only do not approach the level of
competence of its research (the results of research) to
the supervisor, and stopped to engage in scientific
activities after defending his doctoral dissertation (or
engaged at a low level). Therefore, the article authors
consider it expedient to propose indicators that reflect
not only the amount and timeliness of the research
training (PhD thesis defense sometimes occur many
years after graduate school), but also the productivity of
this activity. From the point of view of the authors, the
success of research training only can be considered
productive when prepared by the scientific supervisor
candidates of sciences are highly qualified scientific
personnel, ie conduct high-level research, the results of
which are recognized by the scientific community; the
same is true of the scientific advice (highly qualified
scientific workers - doctors). The practical significance
of the study results - in the possibility of objective
monitoring of research activity of scientific-pedagogical
personnel of higher qualification. Methodological bases
of research: a systematic, competence, sociological, and
metasystem qualimetric approaches. Methods:
modeling, methods of quality control, methods of set
theory, relations and graphs. Normative base of
research: the Federal Law "On Education" (2012), the
federal state educational standards of higher education
(2014, 2015). The work was performed as part of
research projects "Monitoring of the research activities
of educational institutions in the information society"
(№ 16-03-00382) and "Modern information and
educational environment" (16-36-00048) with the
financial support of the Russian Humanitarian
Foundation from 17.03. 2016.
The article is devoted to solving the urgent task, which is improving the accuracy of transient simulation modes of power supply systems of sugar factories. The material of the article is exploratory in nature, manifested in the fact that we have studied various mathematical models designed for the analysis of symmetric modes of deep bar induction motors. A number of the provisions of article have scientific novelty, which lies in the approach to the choice of the coordinate system for modeling deep bar induction motors. We have formulated the requirements for transient analysis method for deep bar induction motor. We have developed the mathematical models of high-voltage induction motors in different coordinate systems for the analysis of steady-state and transient modes of operation. Based on double-circuit rotor model of induction motor, an analytical expression for the frequency characteristic of the deep bar induction motor is obtained. As an example, we have calculated and presented real and imaginary parts of the frequency characteristic of the induction motor type 2АЗМ-2000 with slip s = 1. The mathematical models of induction motors allow using mathematical apparatus more efficiently to explore different symmetrical modes of engines. The study proposed to use transients in the power supply systems of sugar factories for the analysis. The authors suggest an approach to modeling, which can also be useful for modeling induction generators
This article describes how the periodic flooding of soil on a sandy soil model. It was established, that during the lateral movement of moistening of the soil, the moisture has a form of damped oscillations
This article considers the organization of neuralnetwork
interactions based on models of cellular
automata. These models are focused on improving
the efficiency of the iterative processes of
functioning of neural networks and their learning.
The models considered in this article are presented in
the form of two-level hierarchical structures. Models
of the lower level are defined as "cellular neural
element". They are based on formal descriptions of
the dynamic neurons with the additional insertion of
the state functions and the special procedures of
formation of the specified function. Also, we have
added special methods for forming patterns of
activation functions. The conception of developed
models is based on the use of the theory of graphs,
theory of neural networks and the mechanism of
cellular automata. These models will be used as the
basis for software modeling
The description of the designed system of modeling of fields and pits is provided by means of Open CASCADE
Analytical research results of contact forces of interaction of concentrated forages components’ particles in their movement in relative screw drums are presented. It is shown that contact forces – the most difficult forces by their nature; result from stochastic (probable) collision of bulks particles and in particular of concentrated forages components’ particles. Therefore the main objective of this modeling – to describe the stochastic phenomena of the so-called conditional contacts of particles for which some assumptions are accepted, for example, in forcing of mass of concentrated forages components’ particles by the walls of the rotating relative screw drum in the radial direction there will simultaneously arise contacts caused by geometry of a screw drum, i.e. the property of its walls is pressure transfer in relation to the mass of particles in the direction of the modeled movement. Schemes of engagement of concentrated forages components’ particles contacting in the relative screw drum, the probable schedule of sliding speeds values change in their consecutive contacting, their density distribution are demonstrated
The article presents mathematical models of a static and dynamic mode of electric equipment of the stand of test of the chain transfers, allowing to project power elements and to analyze the work of electric equipment of the stand in static and dynamic modes
To reduce the development of additional settlement
strip foundations of the existing building on the effect
of pressure transmitted to a ground base located near
the new slab foundation is considered the work of the
geotechnical barrier in various ground conditions. In
the first variant of soil, conditions (variant 1) made
geotechnical barrier structure in a homogeneous
thickness of the weak clay soil. In the second variant
of soil conditions (variant 2), a separating barrier is
performed in a two-layer base. The upper base layer
(carrying) is shown a weak water-saturated clay soil,
and the second (underlying) - low compressible soil
(sandy loam plastic). According to the results of the
calculations and modeling found that, the greatest
positive effect on the separating barrier structure
(geotechnical barrier) is achieved in the case when the
base is a two-layer. The lower part of the geotechnical
barrier must be recessed into the soil of low
compressibility. Additional settlement strip foundation
of the existing building in a uniform basis (variant 1)
in the absence of geotechnical barrier is approximately
8 cm. In the case of a two-layer base (variant 2), the
additional settlement strip foundation building is
reduced by 80-85% (6.6 cm) and will make about 1.4
cm