Scientific Journal of KubSAU

System paradigm is discussed conformably to functioning of controlling institution of a large-scale agro-industrial system. Presently the systemacity became the general platform of fundamental and applied, scientific and practical elaborations and projects. Now in the sphere of system researches surge of interest in questions of classification is observed. Apparently, it is connected with accumulation of results of private researches in all areas of this discipline and with inevitable transdisciplinary crossings of their practical applications. So, undoubted intervention of high technologies to the agrarian sphere is observed. The efficiency of this introduction, certainly, depends on coordination of actions of developers of various subject domains. On the basis of the objective analysis it must be noted that in the arsenal of managers, especially foreign ones, there is practically no fundamentally new methods and tools of controlling. So says the executive director of Russian Association of Controllers prof. S. G. Falco. However, promising mathematical and instrumental methods of controlling actively developed in our country. It is necessary to implement them. For example, managers should be used advanced mathematical and instrumental methods of controlling. These methods are based on the modern development of mathematics as a whole - on the system interval fuzzy math. Considered methods are developed in accordance with the new paradigm of mathematical methods of research. It includes new paradigms of applied statistics, mathematical statistics, mathematical methods of economics, methods of analysis of statistical and expert data in management and control. In the XXI century there were more than 10 books issued, developed in accordance with the new paradigm of mathematical methods of research. The systems approach to solving specific applications often requires going beyond the economy. Very important are the procedures for the introduction of innovative methods and tools. In this article we consider the above research results in their interconnection

Nonparametric estimates of the probability distribution density in spaces of arbitrary nature are one of the main tools of non-numerical statistics. Their particular cases are considered - kernel density estimates in spaces of arbitrary nature, histogram estimations and Fix-Hodges-type estimates. The purpose of this article is the completion of a series of papers devoted to the mathematical study of the asymptotic properties of various types of nonparametric estimates of the probability distribution density in spaces of general nature. Thus, a mathematical foundation is applied to the application of such estimates in non-numerical statistics. We begin by considering the mean square error of the kernel density estimate and, in order to maximize the order of its decrease, the choice of the kernel function and the sequence of the blur indicators. The basic concepts are the circular distribution function and the circular density. The order of convergence in the general case is the same as in estimating the density of a numerical random variable, but the main conditions are imposed not on the density of a random variable, but on the circular density. Next, we consider other types of nonparametric density estimates - histogram estimates and Fix-Hodges-type estimates. Then we study nonparametric regression estimates and their application to solve discriminant analysis problems in a general nature space

The article is devoted to discussion of modern views on management decisions. We have released several bulk textbooks on the theory of decision-making. This article discusses several key aspects of this theory: a comparison of approaches to decisionmaking, the pitfalls of voting, and the methodology of decision-making, management responsibility. We have considered a simple example of a problem of decision-making in the management of the organization: selection a model of a new car to run into a series. Criteria for making a decision, which put forward by the four experts-theorists, contradicted each other. The Board of Directors decided to issue a vote. We have considered the "reefs" of voting. In the production and realization of administrative decisions we distinguish four levels. The first and most important level, which determine the success or failure of administrative activity is methodological. We discuss the levels of production and realization of administrative decisions. We give some examples where methodological errors lead to wrong management decisions. For example, a call to "maximum profit at the lowest cost" is quite common in the speeches and orders of a general nature. However, it is mistaken. Practice of development, adoption and implementation of solutions is based on a few basic concepts: Who makes the decisions? The procedure for preparation of the solution (the regulations). Objectives. Resources. The risks and uncertainties. Criteria for estimating decisions. The manager has his responsibility for the decisions taken. Volition of manager - the basis of management

The problem of controlling a large-scale agroindustrial system, which should be solved in the process of organizing agricultural production, is considered. It is shown, that the scientific and methodological apparatus of the service subsystem controlling such an object should be expanded in comparison with ordinary enterprises of agroindustrial production. The article considers a new approach to the theory of management of large-scale socio-economic systems, based on a solidary information economy. Its main ideas are analyzed, its use as a basic organizational and economic theory instead of "economics" is justified. According to the solidary information economy, modern information technologies and decisionmaking theory make it possible to build information and communication system based on an "open network society" designed to identify people's needs and organize production in order to meet them. Predecessors - V.M. Glushkov, Anthony Stafford Beer, W. P. Cockshott, A. F. Cottrell and others. The main content of the research is the forecasting of the development of the future society and its economy, the development of organizational and economic methods and models designed to enhance the effectiveness of management processes. As an economic component of the state ideology of Russia, we propose to use a solidary information economy. The organizational and economic theory of Russia's innovative development should be based on a solidary information economy

Statistical methods are widely used in domestic feasibility studies. However, for most managers, economists and engineers, they are exotic. This is due to the fact that modern statistical methods are not taught in the universities. We discuss the situation, focusing on the statistical methods for economic and feasibility studies, ie, econometrics. In the world of science, econometrics has a rightful place. There are scientific journals in econometrics, Nobel Prizes in Economics are given to series of researches in econometrics. The situation in the field of scientific and practical work and especially the teaching of econometrics in Russia is disadvantaged. Often, individual particular constructions replace econometrics in general, such as those related to regression analysis. The article is devoted to econometrics as an academic discipline. Our course begins with a discussion of the structure of modern econometrics, the connections between applied statistics and econometric methods. We consider sample researches (analysis of surveys results), the elements of econometrics numbers, and methods of testing of statistical hypothesis about homogeneity. We have given the concepts of regression analysis, econometric classification methods, modern measurement theory. The important places are occupied by the statistics of non-numerical data (including fuzzy sets and their links with random sets) and the statistics of interval data. The problem of the stability of statistical procedures with respect to the tolerances of input data and model prerequisites is discussed. The representations of the econometric methods of expert research and quality control, analysis and forecasting of time series, econometrics of forecasting and risks are given

The founder of the economic theory is Aristotle. The so-called "market economy" is a perversion of Aristotle's views. We have to eliminate distortions. What can replace the "market economy"? We are developing a new organizational-economic theory - solidary information economy, based on the views of Aristotle. The name of this theory has changed over time. Initially, we used the term "nonformal information economy of the future", and then began to use the term "solidary information economy." In connection with Biocosmology and neo-Aristotelism preferred is an adequate term "functionalist organic information economy". This article describes the main provisions of solidary information economy, intended to replace the market economy as a management tool. The main problems are discussed, the solution of which is devoted to research related to the considered basic organizational and economic theory. We discuss Aristotle's positions, on which the economic theory is based, in particular, solidary information economy. We prove that the market economy has remained in the XIX century and the mainstream in modern economic science - justification of insolvency of a market economy and the need to move to a planned system of economic management. We examine the impact of ICT on economic activity. We develop the approaches to decision-making in the solidary information economy. On the basis of modern decision theory (especially expert procedures) and informationcommunication technologies people can get rid of chrematistics and will understand the term of "economy" according to Aristotle

In accordance with the Presidential Decree of 21 August 2012 â„– 1199 one of the 11 integrated indicators of the activity of executive authorities is the measure "real disposable income of the population". For its calculation it is necessary to measure the level of consumer prices. The article presents the minimum consumer basket of physiologically essential food products, designed in 1993 by the Institute of High Statistical Technologies and Econometrics (IHSTE) based on the initial data of the Institute of Nutrition of the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, and the results of measuring the cost of the consumer basket IHSTE and inflation index in 24 years (1993 - 2017). We discuss the application of the developed tools in Controlling of the level of consumer prices and living wage. According to M. Orshansky, living wage can be estimated by multiplying the cost of the minimum food basket by a factor which is equal to the quotient of all costs to the costs of food costs for a poor family. This work is aimed at the elimination of the monopoly of Rosstat in the calculation of indices of inflation, the living wage and the real disposable income of the population. The methods of the measurement and the use of inflation constitute an important part of training courses in econometrics, which are taught in the context of the scientific-educational complex "Engineering Business and Management" of the Baumann Moscow State Technical University. Nobel Laureate in Economics Vasiliy Leontiev thought that only 1% of economists analyze the newly collected data, 30% use the data contained in the publications of predecessors, and the rest did not turn in their arguments to the real world. This work belongs to the 1% of publications (which analyzes the newly collected data), about which Vasiliy Leontiev wrote

The term "methodology" is understood differently. Methodology - the doctrine of the organization. Methodology (from the "method" and "logy") - the doctrine of structure, logical organization, methods and means of action. Methodology - the system of principles and methods of organization and construction of theoretical and practical activities, as well as teaching on this system. From these definitions it follows that the methodology - is an intellectual base rod defining approach to specific activities to management decisions. The methodology, which adheres to the manager, lies at the heart of its activities, determines its success or failure, manifested in the consequences of decisions. We give some examples of methodological errors which lead to wrong management decisions. So, the person who seriously requires providing "maximum profit at minimum cost" should be classified into one of two classes, which can be briefly described as "fools" and "liars". Profit must not be the sole purpose of business. The following section will discuss the methodology in place of conducting various scientific economic and technical studies. A natural continuation of the topic - the wording of some of the methodological problems using mathematical methods

The article is devoted to the discussion of the organization of clinical-statistical studies and experiments. We have considered the examples of the application of statistical methods in scientific medical research. Under the clinical-statistical research we understand specially organized collection and analysis of medical data about the course of disease in patients, research of the dynamics of objective and subjective indicators of the state of reaction to these or other therapeutic effects. We study one, two or more groups of individuals (patients or healthy), conclusions are drawn on the whole group, but not for each individual patient. The purpose of research - to transfer the conclusions reached for the sample to the general population, i.e., clinical and statistical study focused on the production of useful recommendations concerning those patients who fall into the field of view of doctors after the end of the study. There are two main types of research - prospective and retrospective. The first related to the analysis of the last patients, the second - to monitoring the course of their disease in the future. We have considered typical mistakes in the organization of clinical-statistical studies. When planning a research, we usually distinguish the experimental and control groups, which are identical or similar in all respects except for the studied factors (exposure). We discuss the various options for blind methods and consider the application of statistical models and methods in scientific medical research. We have analyzed examples of confidence estimation of proportion (probability) and the homogeneity test of probabilities. For statistical modeling we use the Poisson distribution in the case of small probability. With its help, we analyze statistical data on the opisthorchiasis

We consider the methods for estimation of the effectiveness and quality of the scientific activities of the researcher, of the organization, of the magazine. Performance indicators of scientific activity are used as an important part in the estimation of higher education institutions, the innovative capacity of enterprises, etc. To estimate the effectiveness of scientific activity is natural to use intellectual tools which are well-established in other subject areas. This will include, in particular, the balanced scorecard, based on key performance indicators (hence the title of this article), as well as controlling, primarily controlling of research activities. There are two more developed and widely used types of tools for estimation the effectiveness of the scientific activity - the scientometric indicators and the expert estimators. Their critical analysis is the subject of this article. The goal - to choose the most effective tool. Different versions of manipulating of values of scientometric indicators in the Russian Federation, in our estimation, are still relatively rare. Perhaps this is due to the relatively short period of their use in the management of science. Since an indicator such as citation index (the number of citations of publications) of researcher, allows estimating its contribution to science, the use of this scientometric indicator for the management of science is justified. At the same time, the number of publications and especially h-index is not possible to objectively estimate the effectiveness of research activities, particularly in view of the properties of the real bibliometric databases. Expert procedures have several disadvantages. In this article we discuss the real effectiveness of expert procedures in the areas of their application, as conferring academic degrees and elections to the National Academy of Sciences (primarily in the Russian Academy of Sciences), as well as appointments to senior positions. The basic principles of expertise in these areas remain the same for the past 70 years. Based on an analysis of practice it is necessary to ascertain the lack of efficacy of expert estimators in these areas. Rationale to what has been said is given in the article