Name
Orlov Alexander Ivanovich
Scholastic degree
•
•
•
Academic rank
professor
Honorary rank
—
Organization, job position
Bauman Moscow State Technical University
Web site url
—
Articles count: 155
System paradigm is discussed conformably to
functioning of controlling institution of a large-scale
agro-industrial system. Presently the systemacity
became the general platform of fundamental and
applied, scientific and practical elaborations and
projects. Now in the sphere of system researches
surge of interest in questions of classification is
observed. Apparently, it is connected with
accumulation of results of private researches in all
areas of this discipline and with inevitable
transdisciplinary crossings of their practical
applications. So, undoubted intervention of high
technologies to the agrarian sphere is observed. The
efficiency of this introduction, certainly, depends on
coordination of actions of developers of various
subject domains. On the basis of the objective
analysis it must be noted that in the arsenal of
managers, especially foreign ones, there is
practically no fundamentally new methods and tools
of controlling. So says the executive director of
Russian Association of Controllers prof. S. G. Falco.
However, promising mathematical and instrumental
methods of controlling actively developed in our
country. It is necessary to implement them. For
example, managers should be used advanced
mathematical and instrumental methods of
controlling. These methods are based on the modern
development of mathematics as a whole - on the
system interval fuzzy math. Considered methods are
developed in accordance with the new paradigm of
mathematical methods of research. It includes new
paradigms of applied statistics, mathematical
statistics, mathematical methods of economics,
methods of analysis of statistical and expert data in management and control. In the XXI century there
were more than 10 books issued, developed in
accordance with the new paradigm of mathematical
methods of research. The systems approach to
solving specific applications often requires going
beyond the economy. Very important are the
procedures for the introduction of innovative
methods and tools. In this article we consider the
above research results in their interconnection
The article is devoted to discussion of modern views
on management decisions. We have released several
bulk textbooks on the theory of decision-making.
This article discusses several key aspects of this
theory: a comparison of approaches to decisionmaking,
the pitfalls of voting, and the methodology
of decision-making, management responsibility. We
have considered a simple example of a problem of
decision-making in the management of the
organization: selection a model of a new car to run
into a series. Criteria for making a decision, which
put forward by the four experts-theorists,
contradicted each other. The Board of Directors
decided to issue a vote. We have considered the
"reefs" of voting. In the production and realization
of administrative decisions we distinguish four
levels. The first and most important level, which
determine the success or failure of administrative
activity is methodological. We discuss the levels of
production and realization of administrative
decisions. We give some examples where
methodological errors lead to wrong management
decisions. For example, a call to "maximum profit at
the lowest cost" is quite common in the speeches
and orders of a general nature. However, it is
mistaken. Practice of development, adoption and
implementation of solutions is based on a few basic
concepts: Who makes the decisions? The procedure
for preparation of the solution (the regulations).
Objectives. Resources. The risks and uncertainties.
Criteria for estimating decisions. The manager has
his responsibility for the decisions taken. Volition of
manager - the basis of management
Applied Statistics - the science of how to analyze
the statistical data. As an independent scientificpractical
area it develops very quickly. It includes
numerous widely and deeply developed scientific
directions. Those who use the applied statistics and
other statistical methods, usually focused on specific
areas of study, ie, are not specialists in applied
statistics. Therefore, it is useful to make a critical
analysis of the current state of applied statistics and
discuss trends in the development of statistical
methods. Most of the practical importance of
applied statistics justifies the usefulness of the work
on the development of its methodology, in which the
field of scientific and applied activities would be
considered as a whole. We have given some brief
information about the history of applied statistics.
Based on Scientometrics of Applied Statistics we
state that each expert has only a small part of
accumulated knowledge in this area. We discuss five
topical areas in which modern applied statistics
develops, ie five "points of growth": nonparametric,
robustness, bootstrap, statistics of interval data, and
statistics of non-numerical data. We discuss some
details of the basic ideas of a non-numerical
statistics. In the last more than 60 years in Russia,
there has been a huge gap between official statistics
and the scientific community of experts on statistical
methods
In this article we substantiate the necessity of the
development of controlling of organizational and
economic methods, including forecasting tools, the
development and management of decision-making,
and others. Controlling service is central to the
development and implementation of organizational
and economic methods to achieve the goals set by
management. However, quite often the controlling
service has a different name, justified by the history
of the organization. To resolve this paradox, we
begin with a discussion of the content of the terms
"controlling" and especially "Controlling
organizational and economic methods". We discuss
the role of "controlling service" in the management
of organizations and enterprises, as well as territorial
and municipal entities. As an example of the
controlling instrument of organizational and
economic methods is considered an automated
system of forecasting and prevention of aviation
accidents, the use in this system the expert
technologies and quantitative risk estimation
methods. We consider this system as a controlling
tool in the management of safety, while customers
and performers do not use the term "controlling" in
the official documentation of this project. In
accordance with the Presidential Decree of 21
August 2012 â„– 1199 one of the 11 integrated
indicators of the executive power is the indicator
"estimate the population of the executive
authorities." Its use in controlling in the field of
strategic management of regional and municipal
entities was proposed to carry out on the basis of
solidary information economy (the former name -
the informal information economy of the future),
developed by us from 2007. We give the basic ideas
of solidary information economy. However, the
term "controlling" is not always used in relation to
this subject. The same applies to researches related
to organizational and economic modeling of
innovation and development of innovative systems
The relationship of Mathematical Statistics (wider -
Mathematical methods of research) and history is
multifaceted. In our opinion, the history of
mathematical statistics is an integral part of this
mathematical discipline. We have given a review of
our works on the history of statistical methods. The
role of mathematical statistics for the history is very
important. In this article, we restrict ourselves to the
questions of chronology. For centuries, the
chronology is considered as a part of applied
mathematics. The main problem is that the whole
"common" concept of the Russian and the World
history as a whole presented in textbooks was faked
by the opponents of Russia after the collapse of the
global Empire (Russian kingdom) in the early 17th
century - 400 years ago. The stories about historical
events are the information weapon. It was used by
the new rulers to suppress the resistance of the
vanquished. A new mathematical and statistical
chronology of general and Russian history, which
was built by a scientific team led by Academician
Fomenko, has been helpful for the discussion about
the current economic and political problems of
relations between Russia and the West in the XXI
century. In our opinion, the new chronology of the
World and Russian history should be one of the
foundations of state-patriotic ideology and deriving
practical solutions. The purpose of this article is to
give the initial idea of the new chronology from this
point of view
In accordance with the Presidential Decree of 21
August 2012 â„– 1199 one of the 11 integrated
indicators of the activity of executive authorities is
the measure "real disposable income of the
population". For its calculation it is necessary to
measure the level of consumer prices. The article
presents the minimum consumer basket of
physiologically essential food products, designed in
1993 by the Institute of High Statistical
Technologies and Econometrics (IHSTE) based on
the initial data of the Institute of Nutrition of the
Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, and the
results of measuring the cost of the consumer basket
IHSTE and inflation index in 24 years (1993 -
2017). We discuss the application of the developed
tools in Controlling of the level of consumer prices
and living wage. According to M. Orshansky, living
wage can be estimated by multiplying the cost of the
minimum food basket by a factor which is equal to
the quotient of all costs to the costs of food costs for
a poor family. This work is aimed at the elimination
of the monopoly of Rosstat in the calculation of
indices of inflation, the living wage and the real
disposable income of the population. The methods
of the measurement and the use of inflation
constitute an important part of training courses in
econometrics, which are taught in the context of the
scientific-educational complex "Engineering
Business and Management" of the Baumann
Moscow State Technical University. Nobel Laureate
in Economics Vasiliy Leontiev thought that only 1%
of economists analyze the newly collected data, 30%
use the data contained in the publications of
predecessors, and the rest did not turn in their
arguments to the real world. This work belongs to
the 1% of publications (which analyzes the newly
collected data), about which Vasiliy Leontiev wrote
The problem of controlling a large-scale agroindustrial
system, which should be solved in the
process of organizing agricultural production, is
considered. It is shown, that the scientific and
methodological apparatus of the service subsystem
controlling such an object should be expanded in
comparison with ordinary enterprises of agroindustrial
production. The article considers a new
approach to the theory of management of large-scale
socio-economic systems, based on a solidary
information economy. Its main ideas are analyzed,
its use as a basic organizational and economic
theory instead of "economics" is justified.
According to the solidary information economy,
modern information technologies and decisionmaking
theory make it possible to build information
and communication system based on an "open
network society" designed to identify people's needs
and organize production in order to meet them.
Predecessors - V.M. Glushkov, Anthony Stafford
Beer, W. P. Cockshott, A. F. Cottrell and others.
The main content of the research is the forecasting
of the development of the future society and its
economy, the development of organizational and
economic methods and models designed to enhance
the effectiveness of management processes. As an
economic component of the state ideology of
Russia, we propose to use a solidary information
economy. The organizational and economic theory
of Russia's innovative development should be based
on a solidary information economy
We have a number of studies on the problems of the
development of organizational and economic
support for control tasks in the aerospace industry,
primarily in the field of project management
development of rocket and space technology. This
article aims at summing up the preliminary results
of the research cycle. Since the core funding of
space activities in Russia is carried out in
accordance with approved government bodies
targeted programs from the state budget, among the
indicators of financial and economic activities of
enterprises should focus not maximize profits, and
decrease costs. We must estimate of the feasibility
of projects in the field of space activities, primarily
on the scientific and technical feasibility and the
socio-economic needs, and resource provision. What
is important is the analysis of all types of resources -
material, production, human resources, time, and not
just financial. As a basic organizational and
economic theory we suggest the use of solidary
information economy, high-tech management,
controlling, developed on the basis of a new
paradigm of mathematical methods of economics,
especially econometrics, decision theory,
organizational and economic modeling. In project
management to create rocket and space technology
should take into account the risks of their
implementation. In estimation of the feasibility of
such projects there should be an analysis of risk
assessment, as well as the use of modern statistical
and expert methods of forecasting the dynamics of
technical and economic indicators project. As
practice shows, we have to develop new
organizational-economic and economicmathematical
models and methods. It is necessary to
build a knowledge base in the art and to adequately
fill it with modern knowledge based on scientific
data of the Russian index of citing. In connection
with the duration of the projects of development of
rocket and space technology, we note the need to
take account of inflation in the planning and
evaluation of the financial and economic activities
of enterprises, organizations and industry as a whole
On the basis of the objective analysis it must be
noted that in the arsenal of managers, especially
foreign ones, there is practically no fundamentally
new methods and tools of controlling. So says the
executive director of Russian Association of
Controllers prof. S. G. Falco. However, promising
mathematical and instrumental methods of
controlling actively developed in our country. It is
necessary to implement them. For example,
managers should be used techniques which
discussed in the book by Orlov AI, Lutsenko EV,
Loikaw VI "Advanced mathematical and
instrumental methods of controlling" (2015). These
methods are based on the modern development of
mathematics as a whole - on the system interval
fuzzy math (see the same named book by Orlov AI
and Lutsenko EV, 2014). Considered methods are
developed in accordance with the new paradigm of
mathematical methods of research. It includes new
paradigms of applied statistics, mathematical
statistics, mathematical methods of economics,
methods of analysis of statistical and expert data in
management and control. In the XXI century there
were more than 10 books issued, developed in
accordance with the new paradigm of mathematical
methods of research. The systems approach to
solving specific applications often requires going
beyond the economy. Very important are the
procedures for the introduction of innovative
methods and tools. In this article we consider the
above research results in their interconnection
At the Department of "Economics and organization
of production" at the end of XX - beginning of XXI
centuries created the scientific school in the field of
organizational and economic modeling,
econometrics and statistics. The same name section
of the department oversees the teaching of the
relevant disciplines. The Laboratory of economic
and mathematical methods in controlling of the
Research and Education Center "Controlling and
innovation in management" of Bauman Moscow
State Technical University conducts research in this
domain. This article is devoted to the activities of
the scientific school, conducting research, and some
of the results. We start with a discussion of the
definitions of terms, which we use. Organizationaleconomic
modeling - scientific, practical and
academic discipline which devoted to the
development, research and application of
mathematical and statistical methods and models in
economics and management of the national
economy, especially in economics and management
of industrial enterprises and their associations. The
term "economic-mathematical methods and models"
has close content. Statistical methods in economics -
the subject of econometrics, the base of which is
applied statistics. Organizational-economic
modeling and econometrics are discussed as a
theoretical and practical trainings and discipline. We
developed textbooks and manuals on the
organizational and economic modeling,
econometrics and statistics. We have conducted
theoretical research and development of applications
in the field of organizational and economic
modeling. In particular, the prediction is regarded as
one of the management functions in industry. We
study the problem of stability in the models and
methods of development of strategy of the enterprise. For prospective organizational and
economic mechanisms of management of industrial
and economic activities, we proposed design based
on solidary information economy