Scientific Journal of KubSAU

In this article we substantiate the necessity of the development of controlling of organizational and economic methods, including forecasting tools, the development and management of decision-making, and others. Controlling service is central to the development and implementation of organizational and economic methods to achieve the goals set by management. However, quite often the controlling service has a different name, justified by the history of the organization. To resolve this paradox, we begin with a discussion of the content of the terms "controlling" and especially "Controlling organizational and economic methods". We discuss the role of "controlling service" in the management of organizations and enterprises, as well as territorial and municipal entities. As an example of the controlling instrument of organizational and economic methods is considered an automated system of forecasting and prevention of aviation accidents, the use in this system the expert technologies and quantitative risk estimation methods. We consider this system as a controlling tool in the management of safety, while customers and performers do not use the term "controlling" in the official documentation of this project. In accordance with the Presidential Decree of 21 August 2012 â„– 1199 one of the 11 integrated indicators of the executive power is the indicator "estimate the population of the executive authorities." Its use in controlling in the field of strategic management of regional and municipal entities was proposed to carry out on the basis of solidary information economy (the former name - the informal information economy of the future), developed by us from 2007. We give the basic ideas of solidary information economy. However, the term "controlling" is not always used in relation to this subject. The same applies to researches related to organizational and economic modeling of innovation and development of innovative systems

We consider an approach to the transition from continuous to discrete scale which was defined by means of step of quantization (i.e. interval of grouping). Applied purpose is selecting the number of gradations in sociological questionnaires. In accordance with the methodology of the general stability theory, we offer to choose a step so that the errors, generated by the quantization, were of the same order as the errors inherent in the answers of respondents. At a finite length of interval of the measured value change of the scale this step of quantization uniquely determines the number of gradations. It turns out that for many issues gated it is enough to point 3 - 6 answers gradations (hints). On the basis of the probabilistic model we have proved three theorems of quantization. They are allowed to develop recommendations on the choice of the number of gradations in sociological questionnaires. The idea of "quantization" has applications not only in sociology. We have noted, that it can be used not only to select the number of gradations. So, there are two very interesting applications of the idea of "quantization" in inventory management theory - in the two-level model and in the classical Wilson model taking into account deviations from it (shows that "quantization" can use as a way to improve stability). For the two-level inventory management model we proved three theorems. We have abandoned the assumption of Poisson demand, which is rarely carried out in practice, and we give generally fairly simple formulas for finding the optimal values of the control parameters, simultaneously correcting the mistakes of predecessors. Once again we see the interpenetration of statistical methods that have arisen to analyze data from a variety of subject areas, in this case, from sociology and logistics. We have another proof that the statistical methods - single scientificpractical area that is inappropriate to share by areas of applications

The article begins with the letter of the chief engineer of chemical plant near Moscow. He requests to analyze of data by means of modern statistical methods and give an opinion on the presence (or absence) of the relationship between the two methods of determining the viscosity of the mastic. For each of the batches of mastic It was presented two numbers - the viscosity measurement results of the two methods. These numbers form two paired samples. We want to install, give whether two specific methods similar results. The true values of viscosity in different batches are not equal. Their difference is not allows us to combine the results of the first measurement method in first sample, the results of the second method - in the second sample, as we can do in the case of testing the homogeneity of two independent samples. For solutions to this problem we discuss four statistical criterions, based on a study of the differences between corresponding values in two paired samples. We test the hypothesis of equality 0 of median of these differences (sign test) and of equality 0 of the mathematical expectation of these differences. Hypothesis of testing of equality of the distribution functions of two paired samples is reduced to the hypothesis of symmetry of the distribution function of these differences with respect to 0. In the alternative of the shift is proposed to use the Wilcoxon signed rank criterion. In the total alternative is proposed to use criterion of the omega-square type which is developed by the author of this article

In modern conditions of quantitative and qualitative degradation of science in general and economics in particular, especially in our country, the scientific direction of "Controlling" stands out not only for its activity, but also the rapid intensive and extensive growth. This work is the summary of the main publications of scientific results on controlling obtained at the Laboratory of economicmathematical methods in controlling of Scientific and Educational Center "Controlling and management innovations" of Bauman Moscow State Technical University. We discuss the concept of "method", "tool", "mechanism", "algorithm" in relation to the Controlling. Adequate use of these terms is necessary for the formulation of sound scientific results, and to provide their perception of the scientific community. Innovations in the field of management in industry and other sectors of the economy based, in particular, on the use of new adequate organizational and economic methods. Controlling in this area - it is the development of relevant management procedures used and the newly established (implanted) organizational and economic methods to the task. Development, systematization and application of modern mathematical tools of controlling are the main theme of our work. We have considered the problems of controlling new areas - controlling risks, quality controlling, controlling organizational and economic support for control tasks in the aerospace industry, controlling research activities. We have also obtained new scientific results in controlling personnel and ecological safety controlling

Adequate and effective assessment of the efficiency, effectiveness and the quality of scientific activities of specific scientists and research teams is crucial for any information society and a society based on knowledge. The solution to this problem is the subject of scientometrics and its purpose. The current stage of development scientometrics differs greatly from his previous appearance in the open as well as paid on-line access to huge amount of detailed data on a large number of indicators on individual authors and on scientific organizations and universities. The world has well-known bibliographic databases: Web of Science, Scopus, Astrophysics Data System, PubMed, MathSciNet, zbMATH, Chemical Abstracts, Springer, Agris, or GeoRef. In Russia, it is primarily the Russian scientific citing index (RSCI). RSCI is a national information-analytical system, accumulating more than 9 million publications of Russian scientists, as well as the information about citation of these publications from more than 6,000 Russian journals. There is too much information; it is so-called "Big data". But the problem is how to make sense of these large data, more precisely, to identify the meaning of scientometric indicators) and thus to convert them into great information ("great information"), and then apply this information to achieve the objective of scientometrics, i.e. to transform it into a lot of knowledge ("great knowledge") about the specific scientists and research teams. The solution to this problem is creating a "Scientific smart metering system" based on the use of the automated system-cognitive analysis and its software tools – an intellectual system called "Eidos". The article provides a numerical example of the creation and application of Scientometric intelligent measurement system based on a small amount of real scientific data that are publicly available using free on-line access to the RSCI

In various applications, it is necessary to analyze several expert orderings, i.e. clustered rankings objects of examination. These areas include technical studies, ecology, management, economics, sociology, forecasting, etc. The objects can be some samples of products, technologies, mathematical models, projects, job applicants and others. In the construction of the final opinion of the commission of experts, it is important to find clustered ranking that averages responses of experts. This article describes a number of methods for clustered rankings averaging, among which there is the method of Kemeny median calculation, based on the use of Kemeny distance. This article focuses on the computing side of the final ranking among the expert opinions problem by means of median Kemeny calculation. There are currently no exact algorithms for finding the set of all Kemeny medians for a given number of permutations (rankings without connections), only exhaustive search. However, there are various approaches to search for a part or all medians, which are analyzed in this study. Zhikharev's heuristic algorithms serve as a good tool to study the set of all Kemeny medians: identifying any connections in mutual locations of the medians in relation to the aggregated expert opinions set (a variety of expert answers permutations). Litvak offers one precise and one heuristic approaches to calculate the median among all possible sets of solutions. This article introduces the necessary concepts, analyzes the advantages of median Kemeny among other possible searches of expert orderings. It identifies the comparative strengths and weaknesses of examined computational ways

In 2011 – 2015, the scientific community was represented by a new paradigm of mathematical methods of research in the field of organizational and economic modeling, econometrics and statistics. There was a talk about a new paradigm of applied statistics, mathematical statistics, mathematical methods of economics, the analysis of statistical and expert data in problems of economics and management. We consider it necessary to develop organizational and economic support for solving specific application area, such as the space industry, start with a new paradigm of mathematical methods. The same requirements apply to the teaching of the respective disciplines. In the development of curricula and working programs, we must be based on a new paradigm of mathematical methods of research. In this study, we present the basic information about a new paradigm of mathematical methods of research. We start with a brief formulation of a new paradigm. The presentation in this article focuses primarily on the scientific field of "Mathematical and instrumental methods of economy", including organizational and economic and economic-mathematical modeling, econometrics and statistics, and decision theory, systems analysis, cybernetics, operations research. We discuss the basic concepts. We talk about the development of a new paradigm. We carry out a detailed comparison of the old and the new paradigms of mathematical methods of research. We give information about the educational literature, prepared in accordance with the new paradigm of mathematical methods of researches

Some estimators of the probability density function in spaces of arbitrary nature are used for various tasks in statistics of non-numerical data. Systematic exposition of the theory of such estimators has been started in our articles [3, 4]. This article is a direct continuation of these works [3, 4]. We will regularly use references to conditions and theorems of the articles [3, 4], in which introduced several types of nonparametric estimators of the probability density. We have studied linear estimators. In this article, we consider particular cases - kernel density estimates in discrete spaces. When estimating the density of the one-dimensional random variable, kernel estimators become the Parzen-Rosenblatt estimators. Under different conditions, we prove the consistency and asymptotic normality of kernel density estimators. We have introduced the concept of "preferred rate differences" and are studied nuclear density estimators based on it. We have introduced and studied natural affinity measures which are used in the analysis of the asymptotic behavior of kernel density estimators. Kernel density estimates are considered for sequences of spaces with measures. We give the conditions under which the difference between the densities of probability distributions and of the mathematical expectations of their nuclear estimates uniformly tends to 0. Is established the uniform convergence of the variances. We find the conditions on the kernel functions, in which take place these theorems about uniform convergence. As examples, there are considered the spaces of fuzzy subsets of finite sets and the spaces of all subsets of finite sets. We give the condition to support the use of kernel density estimation in finite spaces. We discuss the counterexample of space of rankings in which the application of kernel density estimators can not be correct

In the USSR higher attestation Commission from 1975 to the collapse of the USSR was subordinated not to the Ministry of education and science, but to the Council of Ministers of the USSR directly. However, since then there is a steady trend of gradual reduction of the status of the Commission. Today it is not just included in the Ministry of education, it is just one of the units of one of its structures: the Rosobrnadzor. Reduced status of the HAC inevitably leads to a decline in the status and in the adequacy of scientific degrees assigned as well as scientific ranks. This process of devaluation of traditional academic degrees and titles assigned to the HAC, has reached the point when a few years ago there were abolished salary increments for them. Now, instead of that, every university and research institutes have developed their local, i.e. non-comparable with each other scientometric methods of evaluation of the results of scientific and teaching activities. Despite the diversity of these techniques, there is a common thing among all of them, which is the disproportionate role of the h-index. The value of the Hirsch index starts to play an important role in the protection, when considering competitive cases for positions, as well as in determining the monthly rewards for the results of scientific and teaching activities. By itself, this index is well founded, theoretically. However, in connection with the practice of its application in our conditions, in the collective consciousness of the scientific community there was a kind of mania, which the authors call the "Hirschmania". This mania is characterized by elevated unhealthy interest to the value of the Hirsch index, as well as incorrect manipulation of its value, i.e. inadequate artificial exaggeration of this value, as well as a number of negative consequences of that interest. In this study we have made an attempt to construct a quantitative measure for assessing the extent of improper manipulation of the value of the Hirsch index, and offered a science-based modification of the h-index, insensitive (resistant) to the manipulation. The article presents a technique for all the numerical calculations, which is simple enough for any author to use

We have considered the formation of the Russian scientific school in the field of econometrics, obtained its obtained scientific results, the possibilities of their use in solving problems of the economy, the organization of production and controlling of industrial companies and organizations, as well as in teaching. As econometrics we consider a scientific and an academic discipline devoted to the development and application of statistical methods to study economic phenomena and processes, in short, statistical methods in economics. Therefore, we can say that a lot of domestic books and articles, in particular, the works by the author of this publication from the beginning of the 70s, are the parts of econometrics. However, in this article we consider only the works, in the titles of which we can see the word of "econometrics". In our country the term "econometrics" has become popular since the mid 90s. However, many publications and training courses are still developed in the western outdated paradigm. They do not conform to the new paradigm of mathematical methods of economics, the new paradigm of applied statistics and mathematical statistics, mathematical methods of research. Russian science school in the field of econometrics operates within the scientific school in the field of probability theory and mathematical statistics based by A.N. Kolmogorov. Russian science school is developed in accordance with the new paradigm of mathematical methods. It is necessary to examine the main results of Russian scientific schools in the field of econometrics. We present the information on the institutional design of national scientific schools in econometrics, in particular, on the activities of the Institute of High Technologies statistics and econometrics